Eoin Treacy's view -
The US information technology sector is trading about 15 percent below the current S&P 500 valuation, which is in sharp contrast to the historical premium of approximately 160 percent during the dotcom bubble. We like technology stocks in general as they are the main driver of the necessary productivity growth the economy needs to create long-term increases in wealth per capita.
However, a small group of technology stocks trade at a huge premium of about 700 percent above market valuation, almost defying the “Newtonian laws” of financial markets. These stocks are what we call the “Fat Five” of the technology sector” Amazon, Netflix, Twitter, Pandora Media and Yelp. These stocks have very inflated valuations based on a skewed valuation premium on growth that has evolved in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Investors have trouble finding good growth scenarios, so when some suddenly drop by the neighbourhood, they get bid up to levels that present very poor risk/reward ratios. It is like a new bubble within an old bubble.
Facebook’s USD 3 billion cash offer for Snapchat, declined by its 23-year-old founder, is the ultimate display of hubris that shows how exuberance has grown to new levels in this part of the technology sector. Snapchat has zero revenue and does not have a business model, so the acquisition value is not determined by incremental cash flow to Facebook, but from the potential destruction value to Facebook based on assumptions about wider adoption of Snapchat.
This creative destruction is exactly the “dark matter” that should make investors cautious about the huge valuation premium that is currently being put on this small group within the information technology sector. To trade this, we would create a synthetic equal-weighted index of the Fat Five, starting at 100 on the last trading day of 2013. Our Outrageous Prediction is that this index will go to 50 during 2014.
The full report quoted above is posted in the Subscriber's Area.
Earnings matter. Many forgot that during the Nasdaq bubble and some appear to have forgotten that simple fact again when looking for growth opportunities in the social media space.
This section continues in the Subscriber's Area. Back to top