Most Recent Audio: 15 June 2018

David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Free (Abbreviated)
Comment of the Day

The more detailed Subscriber's Comment of the Day becomes available for public access after 4 months.

Click HERE to see the most recent free Subscriber's Comment from 16 March, 2018

June 15 2018

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

June 15 2018

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Trade Angst Sinks Metals and Miners as Gold Sags Most in a Month

This article by Susanne Barton for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

The stronger dollar and speculation that a trade war will hamper demand fueled a drop in raw materials, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index declining for a second straight day. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this week that trade is a “risk” to the outlook, and that concerns about changes in trade policy are rising even if the impacts aren’t yet seen in economic numbers.

The tariffs mean China “won’t be importing as much of the base metals,” said Peter Thomas, a senior vice president at Chicago-based metals broker Zaner Group. “As these tariffs take affect, we’ll see less consumption from each side until it gets settled. It started with base metals and it’s pulling on gold.” China is the biggest consumer of industrial metals.

Gold futures for August delivery fell 1.6 percent to $1,292.20 an ounce at 10:14 a.m. on the Comex in New York, on course for the biggest decline since May 15.

Eoin Treacy's view

Donald Trump is not a conventional politician, he is in fact following through on his campaign promises even though no one seems to have believed he was serious before he was elected. As Angela Merkel pointed earlier this week, the USA enjoys a net surplus with Germany when service providers like Google and Facebook are included. However, that kind of finessing of the data is not something the base Trump is appealing to is interested in.

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June 15 2018

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Japan's coming Golden Age of Activism

Thanks to a subscriber for this report from Jeffries which may be of interest. Here is a section:

Eoin Treacy's view

A link to the full report and a section from it are posted in the Subscriber's Area.

Long-term trends change the fundamentals of a market and Japan is one of the most relevant examples of that in the world today. The deflationary environment has prevailed for so long that that I am reminded of the quip from the commodity markets “those who know it best, love it least because they have been disappointed the most”.

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June 15 2018

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Fund That Profited From Turkey Rout Sees Aussie Dollar Slump

This article by Matthew Burgess and Ruth Carson for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

A Sydney-based fund manager that profited from the selloff in Turkey’s bonds and currency last month now expects a slump closer to home, as a stronger greenback weighs on the Australian dollar.

The Aussie may fall more than 10 percent to the “mid-60s” U.S. cents in 12 months, said Vimal Gor, head of income and fixed interest at Pendal Group, at a conference Thursday. A hawkish Federal Reserve will continue raising rates “until something breaks,” while its Australian counterpart stands pat, he said.

“The U.S. is the only country that’s genuinely hiking rates, so the interest-rate differential story is giving a huge tailwind to the dollar,” Tim Hext, a Sydney-based portfolio manager in Gor’s team, said separately by telephone.

Pendal’s view follows the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to keep interest rates at a record low 1.5 percent last week after a key unemployment metric edged higher. RBA governor Philip Lowe once again highlighted concern over the outlook for household consumption amid sluggish wages growth and high debt.

Eoin Treacy's view

China is Australia’s largest trading partner so anything that has an impact on commodity demand is not good news for the economy and therefore the currency.

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June 15 2018

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day on moving average calculations

Good afternoon, I am a long-time subscriber to your wonderful website and just have a question regarding the chart library. 

I was looking at the moving averages on daily, weekly and monthly charts in your library, and noticed that when comparing to other chart terminals like Bloomberg or sites such as StockCharts, the MA values for weekly and monthly charts don't appear to match despite the same values being inputted. As an example, I attach the weekly charts for S&P500 with the MA values of 34, 89 and 200. Interestingly, the daily charts do have MAs matching.

I was wondering what would be the cause of this discrepancy, perhaps a different formula or method for calculating the MA? I like the way that your chart library appears to calculate the MAs, so if this is indeed the case, is there a way to use the same method for calculating the MA on, say, a Bloomberg terminal? 

Thank you in advance and I look forward to hearing from you.

Eoin Treacy's view

Thank you for this question which comes up from time to time. The discrepancy is easy to explain. We calculate moving averages on a daily basis because we include all the data at our disposal. Other chart systems calculate the moving average based on the data displayed.

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June 15 2018

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Long-term themes review May 16th 2018

Eoin Treacy's view

FullerTreacyMoney has a very varied group of people as subscribers. Some of you like to receive our views in written form, while others prefer the first-person experience of listening to the audio or watching daily videos.

The Big Picture Long-Term video, posted every Friday, is aimed squarely at anyone who does not have the time to read the daily commentary but wishes to gain some perspective on what we think the long-term outlook holds. However, I think it is also important to have a clear written record for where we lie in terms of the long-term themes we have identified, particularly as short-term market machinations influence perceptions.

Here is a summary of my view at present:

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June 15 2018

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

The 49th year of The Chart Seminar

Eoin Treacy's view

If you have an interest in attending an online Chart Seminar please contact Sarah and we will arrange times based on the time zones of those who wish to attend. I envisage holding our first online seminar in late May or early June. 

There will be another Seminar in London in November and I am in initial discussions with a potential partner about organising a New York Seminar.

If you would like to attend or have a suggestion for another venue please feel to reach out to Sarah at sarah@fullertreacymoney.com.  

The full rate for The Chart Seminar is £1799 + VAT. (Please note US, Australian and Asian delegates, as non EU residents are not liable for VAT). Subscribers are offered a discounted rate of £850. Anyone booking more than one place can also avail of the £850 rate for the second and subsequent delegates.

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June 15 2018

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Eoin's personal portfolio April 11th 2018