Eoin Treacy's view

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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will convene a meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council Friday.

FSOC comprises the heads of the nation's top financial regulators, and was created in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis to enable the government to coordinate efforts at combating systemic risks to the U.S. economy.

The announcement comes amid concerns over the health of the banking sector following the recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

The uncertainty is being felt overseas as well with shares of Germany's Deutsche Bank (DBK.XE) slumping as its credit default swaps widened.

Financial sector equities (XLF) were under pressure Friday, ranking as the worst performing sector in the S&P 500 in morning trade.

Eoin Treacy's view

The Plunge Protection Team is convening so the monetary and fiscal authorities are fully aware of the $1.7 trillion in unrealised losses in the US banking sector. The simple fact is anyone who bought long-dated bonds between 2019 and 2022 is sitting on fat losses. 

Collapses of Large Banks on Fridays:

- Friday, Mar. 14, 2008: Bear Stearns hit by liquidity crisis

- Friday, Sept. 12, 2008: Last trading day before Lehman Brothers declares bankruptcy

- Friday, Sept. 26, 2008: Washington Mutual seized by regulators marking largest bank collapse in US history

- Friday, Mar. 10, 2023: SVB seized by regulators, marking 2nd biggest bank failure in US history

- Friday, Mar. 10, 2023: Signature Bank sees $10 billion in withdrawals, seized by regulators 2 days later

- Friday, Mar. 17, 2023: UBS bids for Credit Suisse, $CS, to avoid its collapse

- Friday, Mar. 24, 2023: Deutsche Bank, $DB, credit default swaps hit 4-year high on contagion fears

Just about every large bank failure in recent history has occurred on a Friday.

This can't be a coincidence.

Eoin Treacy's view

Giving regulators time to make an announcement over the weekend helps to avert market panic. That’s as good a reason as any to announce bad news as close to the market close as possible on a Friday. 

“What’s changed in the last few weeks is the credit markets,” said Rich Hill, chief of real estate strategy research at Cohen & Steers Capital Management Inc. “It went from a story of work-from-home and the impact on occupancy and the lack of rent growth to also the compounding of tighter financial conditions given everything happening with banks.”

Fears of tighter credit are adding to risks for offices that have been building for some time, Green Street analysts wrote in a Tuesday report. Hedge fund manager Jim Chanos, Marathon Asset Management and Polpo Capital Management founder Daniel McNamara are among those who have been betting for months that landlords will struggle to lure staff back to workplaces. 

“This regional banking crisis is just throwing fuel on the fire,” McNamara said in a telephone interview. “I just don’t see a way out of this without a lot of pain in the office sector.” 

Eoin Treacy's view

Commercial real estate is a massive and highly diversified sector that forms the basis for most alternative asset portfolios. That’s because it is the only asset class large enough to absorb the flow of cash out of conventional assets when yields were too low to meet pension and institutional return requirements. 

The PDI-P, which secured 22 per cent of parliamentary seats in 2019, is the only party that can nominate candidates without having to ally with other parties. Both Mr Widodo and Mr Ganjar are members of PDI-P.

For Mr Ganjar, the main obstacle to being named PDI-P’s presidential candidate is his own party, said Padjadjaran University political communication expert Kunto Adi Wibowo.

“If Ganjar wants the nomination, PDI-P should be the one to nominate him. He doesn’t want to quit his own party. But will Megawati (Sukarnoputri) give the ticket to Ganjar while she is grooming Puan (Maharani)?,” he said.

Ms Megawati is PDI-P’s chief, while Ms Puan, her daughter, is the House of Representatives Speaker and ranks low in electability rating polls.

Prof Firman noted that both PDI-P and Gerindra may finally have to strike a “tough deal” if they cannot come up with their nominees amid the constant rise in popularity of Dr Anies, given the solidity of his support. 

“If they are forced by pressing circumstances, they will make a deal and resort to the most popular candidates,” he said.  

Eoin Treacy's view

President Widodo has been a stabilizing force for Indonesia throughout his tenure. The biggest test of sound governance is in the transfer of power. If the sound base he has built can be sustained, the long-term outlook for Indonesia’s potential will be upgraded by investors. 

Eoin Treacy's view

One of the questions subscribers ask most often is how to find details of my open trades. To make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary on a daily basis until there is a change.