Most Recent Audio: 23 April 2019

David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Free (Abbreviated)
Comment of the Day

The more detailed Subscriber's Comment of the Day becomes available for public access after 4 months.

Click HERE to see the most recent free Subscriber's Comment from 23 January, 2019

April 23 2019

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

April 23 2019

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Trump Stirs Alarm That He May Be Giving China a New Trade Weapon

This article by Shawn Donnan and Jenny Leonard for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

Details of the U.S. commitments and how the enforcement mechanism will operate remain scant. But Mnuchin’s comments have caused plenty of raised eyebrows from legal scholars to the business community and Congress.

If the U.S. allows China reciprocal enforcement powers, it would make China “judge, jury and executioner as to whether we have honored our obligations,’’ said Daniel Price, who served as a senior economic adviser to President George W. Bush and is now at Rock Creek Global Advisors in Washington. “I don’t think the U.S. business community is sufficiently alert to the risk of constantly being exposed to unilateral enforcement action by China.”

Details of the U.S. commitments and how the enforcement mechanism will operate remain scant. But Mnuchin’s comments have caused plenty of raised eyebrows from legal scholars to the business community and Congress.

If the U.S. allows China reciprocal enforcement powers, it would make China “judge, jury and executioner as to whether we have honored our obligations,’’ said Daniel Price, who served as a senior economic adviser to President George W. Bush and is now at Rock Creek Global Advisors in Washington. “I don’t think the U.S. business community is sufficiently alert to the risk of constantly being exposed to unilateral enforcement action by China.”
 

Eoin Treacy's view

The quid pro quo of testing and enforcement is a clear risk from the impeding trade deal between the USA and China. Perhaps most important of all is that if the deal goes ahead as suggested above it represents a clear admittance that China is on par with the USA geopolitically. That may have already been a fact but it is quite something else to codify it in a treaty governing trade.

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April 23 2019

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Today's Europe News screen on Bloomberg

I thought this was an interesting development. The main news page on European news page on Bloomberg carries very little news on Europe.

Eoin Treacy's view


The Eurozone has a demographic deficit, bad debts that represent a significant challenge, populations which are revolting at the ballot box, by electing populists, and a domestic economy that has been running on fumes for a decade. Sentiment is about as negative as it can be, investors are dismissive and one portfolio manager mentioned to me recently that India has more coverage from the analysts he receives research from than Europe. So how much worse can it get?

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April 23 2019

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Brazil Digital Report

Thanks to a subscriber for this slide deck from Gartner which may be of interest.  Here is a section: 

The Brazilian economy has reached a tipping point ▪ GDP growth has returned ▪ Consumer and industry confidence are high ▪ Inflation and interest rates are at all-decade lows ▪ Country risk is on the decline ▪ Capital markets are active as ever… ▪ …and BOVESPA is at its highest point to date.

But to expand growth and make other advances, the country will need to close gaps with developed and emerging economies: ▪ Productivity has grown very little over the last decade ▪ The demographic and workforce boom is over, meaning that productivity gains will be needed to drive growth ▪ We lack innovation, patents, and a skilled workforce… ▪ … and we have not seen any sign of homegrown tech or innovation giants among our top-performing companies.

Eoin Treacy's view

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

Corruption is a scourge Brazil has long had to contend with and it is not about to disappear overnight. In any society, the way the elite retain power is to ensure their supporters are well looked after, often at the expense of everyone else. That generally results in government employees receiving attractive pay packages and secured pensions. That is true in every country but represents a particular challenge when it represents an obstacle to recovery which is why pension reform is so important for the long-term health of the Brazilian economy. 

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April 23 2019

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

2019: The 50th year of The Chart Seminar

Eoin Treacy's view

I have had word from the inestimable Mrs. Fuller that the London Philharmonic Orchestra are planning a memorial concert on October 5th at the Royal Festival Hall. It is envisaged that there will be drinks and canapes afterwards. Since this is the 50th year of The Chart Seminar we will be conducting the event on October 3rd and 4th.

I also plan on holding a New York event, potentially in June, and am in discussions with a partner in how best to organise it.

In the meantime, if you have any questions, would like to attend, or have a suggestion for another venue please feel to reach out to Sarah at sarah@fullertreacymoney.com.  

The full rate for The Chart Seminar is £1799 + VAT. (Please note US, Australian and Asian delegates, as non-EU residents are not liable for VAT). Annual subscribers are offered a discounted rate of £850. Anyone booking more than one place can also avail of the £850 rate for the second and subsequent delegates.

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April 23 2019

Commentary by Eoin Treacy