Eoin Treacy's view

A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

Eoin Treacy's view

I have a soft spot for Melbourne since I lived here almost 20 years ago. It was an absolute pleasure to spend time discussing the market with subscribers and to look at a lot of charts. There were some very clear conclusions that arose from that perusal of the markets.

Is it too late to ask the Chart Seminar view on Harvey Norman HVN.AX

Eoin Treacy's view

Thanks for this question. Interestingly no one asked to look at Harvey Norman at the seminar.

I have noticed re the Japanese charts that the Topix second section now seems to be leading on the downside having broken through the 7000 level. Should this be a concern?

Eoin Treacy's view

The Topix 2nd Section was a topic of conversation at The Chart Seminar over the last few days.

It has been a reliable lead indicator for the market for as long as I can remember and it will need to bounce soon to confirm support in the region of the trend mean.

As further sanction, the United States has removed Iran from the SWIFT network, the well-known world interbank transfer system, which is also a private company.

Iran, however, has immediately joined the Chinese CIPS, a recent network, similar to SWIFT, with which it is already fully connected.

Basically China’s idea is to create an international currency based on the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights and freely expendable on world markets, in lieu of the US dollar, so as to avoid “the dangerous fluctuations stemming from the US currency and the uncertainties on its real value “- just to quote the Governor of the Chinese central bank, Zhou Xiaochuan, who will soon be replaced by Yi Gang.

In the meantime, Russia and China are acquiring significant amounts of gold.

In recent years China has bought gold to the tune of at least 1842.6 tons, but the international index could be distorted, as many transactions on the Shanghai Gold Exchange are Over the Counter (OTC) and hence are not reported.

Again according to official data, so far Russia is supposed to have reached 1857.7 tons.

Both countries have so far bought 10% of the gold available in the world.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has already accepted payments in yuan for the oil sold to China, which is its largest customer. This is a turning point. If Saudi Arabia gives in, sooner or later all OPEC countries will follow suit.

Eoin Treacy's view

I find these arguments about the petrodollar to be very interesting. The establishment of the Dollar’s dominance in global trade was a masterstroke of diplomacy when the Saudi Arabians agreed to exchange Dollars for investment opportunities and military security. However, that was also at a time when the importance of oil to the global economy was growing.