Hello Eoin, Whatever age you happen to be, it is always salutary to lose a parent. A constant pillar in one's life has gone and no more questions can be asked. It brings into relief one's own fragility and mortality in a way that few, if any, other deaths will do. I hope your mother's passing was a comfortable one. My condolences to you and your family.

While it is probably improper to revert immediately to business, I am sure you will want to re-immerse yourself in the observation and interpretation of markets without delay. On this basis, I have a question:

Given that we believe we are heading for monetary contraction, a rise in interest rates and accelerating inflation how should we be positioning portfolios? Banks and resources should be well bid for the time being and Japan should benefit from inflation.

But how about India, China and the other economies of North and South East Asia? What sectors and markets are best avoided? At what point does one accumulate cash? Gold is much talked about as an inflation hedge but that will be a shooting star - it might soar in the near future but it will then weaken once more. It is to be regarded as a hedge or a trade, not as an investment - at least that's my view.

In my own portfolio, I've trimmed China and India, reduced or eliminated high flying 'big-tech' stocks (but not touched PCT), increased my Japan weighting and increased cash. I'm probably underweight gold. I plan to accumulate more cash but at this stage, I've no idea what holdings I shall reduce or sell over the coming months. Providing one is not losing money, investment is fun but over the next two or three years, I suspect there will be plenty of opportunities to lose money which we should try to avoid. It's a tough time for you and you have plenty on your plate but if you care to comment on these musings it would be much appreciated. All best.

Thank you for your condolences. The outpouring of warmth and compassion from subscribers has been enormously gratifying for my whole family and I. My mother’s passing leaves a hole in the wider family, since she was the matriarch in no uncertain terms, but it has also encouraged us all to work harder at communicating.

This is a detailed question and there is no one simple answer. I’ll attempt to more fully explore these issues over the course of the next few days and weeks but here are some of my current thoughts.

FullerTreacyMoney has a very varied group of people as subscribers. Some of you like to receive our views in written form, while others prefer the first-person experience of listening to the audio or watching daily videos.

The Big Picture Long-Term video, posted every Friday, is aimed squarely at anyone who does not have the time to read the daily commentary but wishes to gain some perspective on what we think the long-term outlook holds. However, I think it is also important to have a clear written record for where we lie in terms of the long-term themes we have identified, particularly as short-term market machinations influence perceptions.

Here is a summary of my view at present:

FullerTreacyMoney has a very varied group of people as subscribers. Some of you like to receive our views in written form, while others prefer the first-person experience of listening to the audio or watching daily videos.

The Big Picture Long-Term video, posted every Friday, is aimed squarely at anyone who does not have the time to read the daily commentary but wishes to gain some perspective on what we think the long-term outlook holds. However, I think it is also important to have a clear written record for where we lie in terms of the long-term themes we have identified, particularly as short-term market machinations influence perceptions.

Here is a brief summary of my view at present.

I have just returned from a visit to India and I visited China last autumn. I was struck by the difference between the two societies. In China I found an almost total absence of religious belief while in India I discovered an almost nationwide attachment to different religions and traditional mysticism. While I saw "tomorrow" all over China in the form of futuristic cities like Shanghai and Hong Kong, I only saw "yesterday 's poverty and superstition" in India. David and you harp on the importance of governance. I heard many Chinese persons state that as long as their material well-being improves, they are prepared to accept the absence of democracy because this enables the government to take action without vested interests standing in its way. In India democratic discussion was said by the persons I met to be an obstacle to rapid and firm decision-taking. What is your opinion on this?

Thank you for sharing your impressions from China and India following your travels. You are not the first subscriber to have asked this question. There have been a number of people over the years who, having visited China and India, said that on coming home they sold their India positions and transferred the balance to China.

Blackstone’s private equity funds have now invested a total of $3.5 billion in India. The firm is planning to add another $2 billion of such investments in the country over the next five years, Dixit said.

Its Tactical Opportunities fund acquired a stake last year in an Indian asset reconstruction company that buys bad loans. Blackstone is also looking at insolvent firms put up for sale under the new bankruptcy law that took effect in December 2016, he said.

At the turn of the century, many Indian industries weren’t fully open to foreign investment, and family-run businesses were wary of ceding control. Private equity has now become a “very important” source of funding for Indian companies’ growth, according to Sunil Sanghai, founder of NovaDhruva Capital Pvt. Blackstone has been successful in aligning its interests with portfolio company executives as well as finding the right time to sell, he said.

“In the past few years, the investment climate has certainly undergone a positive change,” Sanghai said. “The private equity firms have also matured: they have seen a couple of investing cycles, and they now have experience with Indian companies and Indian management.”

With a well-developed domestic consumer market and the pace of digitization increasing India’s financial, consumer and health care sectors remains on secular uptrend trends of expansion.

Xi has ratcheted up his drive to curb debt risk, pollution and poverty at a time when the world’s second-largest economy is on a long-term growth slowdown. His efforts to rein in spending contrast with an historic expansion of U.S. borrowing under Donald Trump during a period of economic expansion.

The 2018 targets “suggest slower growth and a fiscal drag,” said Callum Henderson, a managing director for Asia-Pacific at Eurasia Group in Singapore. “This makes sense for China in the context of the new focus on financial de-risking, poverty alleviation and environmental clean-up, but is less good news at the margin for those economies that have high export exposure to China.”

Growth handily surpassed 2017’s target with a 6.9 percent expansion that was the first acceleration since 2010. Economists forecast a moderation to 6.5 percent this year amid the ongoing deleveraging drive and trade tensions with the Trump administration and a further deceleration to 6.2 percent in 2019.

China has significant challenges ahead as it engages with deleveraging, particularly among the regional lenders. However, it is also worth considering that fiscal discipline at this stage in the cycle is admirable since it will leave the government with some firepower when the economy next slows. That is the exact opposite of what the US government is doing at present which is of course why interest rates are set to continue to rise.

Earlier the poor Indian farmer could sell his cow for Rs 25000 when it stopped giving milk. No longer. Now cattle buyers don't step forward lest Hindu goons lynch them.

So the farmer with an unproductive cow leaves it in some open area, and this cow becomes yet another addition to the tens of thousands of emaciated cows standing around in the countryside.

Worse, they eat up the farmer's crop. Losing him the little he has.

India has 120 million cows, according to the last agriculture census. Why would those cow-owners vote for a Modi who impoverishes them?

When Nanded voted against the BJP and Modi this week, it was speaking for all of rural India. Village voters will pulverize Modi in 2019.

About urban distress, facts speak. Mahesh Vyas is India's most respected statistician and founder of CMIE, our most credible source on the Indian economy.

Citing figures, he wrote that demonetization triggered huge job losses. Seven million of them in one year between Jan 2016 and Jan 2017. He was talking of formal jobs in the private sector.

Those seven milllost jobs means at least 28 million people pauperized, at four people per family, people who depended on those salaries to eat and live.

Today a failing GST has paralyzed commerce all over India. Small traders and manufacturers just can't cope with the paperwork.

And they can't afford the services of trained accountants.

Could Modi lose the 2019 election in India? It’s a question the majority of investors haven’t even to contemplate but it behoves us to at least consider the possibilities.

Modi is an economic reformer and his success in Gujarat was one of his most alluring attributes in delivering what was a stunning electoral victory at the last election. However, Modi is also a populist, in fact he was the first of what is now an increasingly long line of successful populist politicians. Granting single party rule to the BJP also promoted Hindu nationalism to the national stage where it has become more assertive. 

Modi, making the forum’s first speech by an Indian head of state in more than two decades, did not mention Trump by name but he criticized the rise of protectionism in remarks delivered three days before the U.S. President will address the summit.

“Instead of globalization, the power of protectionism is putting its head up,” Modi said, speaking in Hindi and causing an initial flurry in the audience of business and political leaders as people reached for their translation headsets.

“Their wish is not only to save themselves from globalization, but to change the natural flow of globalization.”

Modi is leading a big government and business delegation to the summit in the Swiss ski resort of Davos, aiming to showcase India as a fast-growing economic power and a potential driver of global growth.

Modi’s speech in Hindi was as much about speaking to the people at home as it was about sending a message to the international community that India is open for business. 
 

The upstart Indian mobile carrier backed by the country’s richest person posted its first quarterly profit almost 16 months after storming into the market with free calling and data at no charge on an introductory basis.

Net income at Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd. was 5.04 billion rupees ($79 million) for the three months through December, the company said Friday. It posted operating revenue of 68.79 billion rupees and had 160.1 million subscribers at the end of the quarter.

Jio’s ability to add subscribers and hold down costs suggests its gains on rivals including No. 1 carrier Bharti Airtel Ltd., which reported Thursday that profit fell for a seventh straight quarter, may be sustainable. After starting a price war that forced some smaller providers out of the industry, Jio is acquiring spectrum, tower and fiber assets from debt-laden Reliance Communications Ltd., controlled by billionaire sibling, Anil Ambani.

That deal puts Mukesh Ambani back in control of assets he handed to Anil Ambani in 2005 as part of an agreement to settle a family dispute.

Jio, now the country’s fourth-largest carrier, is also getting a tailwind from declines in its costs for interconnection fees. The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India reduced interconnect charges by 57 percent to 0.06 rupees a minute from October last year and plans to cut them to zero starting Jan. 1, 2020.

Jio spent 10.8 billion rupees on access charges in the third quarter, compared with 21.4 billion rupees it had spent in the three months through September, the company said.

Veteran subscribers will be familiar with my enthusiasm with the roll out of 4G mobile internet connectivity in India but I don’t think it can be underestimated. India has a major issue with the lack of educational achievement and availability for its millions of impoverished people.  Illiteracy is one of the most profound obstacles to personal development so anything that helps to promote productivity growth potential is to be welcomed.

I'm not sure whether you include 'The Economist' in your regular reading material. If so, you will have noticed that they have recently published several articles critical of India and in particular, critical of the BJP and of Modi. In last week's edition, a lead article plus a 'Briefing' suggested that wealth in India was confined to very few people and to get into the top 1% of earners you only needed an income US$20,000 a year. The articles were critical of infrastructure, of education, of the bureaucracy and of both the pace and direction of reform. They concluded that the Indian economy may be running out of puff and wondered from where it might get its second wind. As a consequence of an Asian-centric background, I have reasonably large weightings in China, India and Japan. I have no intention of reducing exposure to India (nor to China or Japan) but I would be interested in your views on The Economist's assertions particularly given your high regard for Modi and his government. All best.

Thank you for this topical question. Governance is Everything has been a mantra at this service since before I joined David in 2003. However, governance is not a static measurement. It is a relative consideration and the trajectory of governance rather than its absolute value is what we strive to identify. 

Billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd. agreed to acquire spectrum, mobile-phone towers and fiber assets of his brother Anil Ambani’s Reliance Communications Ltd. helping the younger sibling cut debt at the embattled wireless carrier, the two companies said in separate exchange filings.

Reliance Jio emerged the highest bidder for assets and the sale is expected to be closed in a phased manner between January and March 2018, according to a statement from RCom on Thursday.

The companies didn’t disclose a value for the transaction. The deal will include a cash payment and transfer of deferred spectrum installment payable to India’s Department of Telecommunication.

Mumbai-based RCom is seeking to cut total borrowings by $6 billion by March. RCom posted its first annual loss last March after Jio stormed into the market by offering free calls and data. That escalated a price war that has forced consolidation in the sector. RCom this week said it expects to get about 250 billion rupees ($3.9 billion) from the sale of its spectrum across four frequencies, its optical fiber network, and its more than 40,000 telecom towers. Entire proceeds will be used for repayment of RCom’s debt.

Reliance Jio is only paying for good quality assets that will enhance its depth of network, especially in rural areas, and raise data usage capacity, Shobhit Khare, a co-founder at Inertia Wealth Creators LLP, said via phone.

Reliance Industries spent a great deal of time developing a 4G network (Jio) and is now reaping the benefits. Reliance Communications, by selling its mobile assets, is essentially exiting the mobile telecommunications business. This article from livemint.com details where management see the company focusing next:

RCom will essentially be transformed from a business-to-consumer (B2C) into a business-to-business (B2B) entity, which will provide submarine cable systems that will deliver the latest sub-sea cable technology to meet growing cloud infrastructure and data capacity demand from global enterprises and over-the-top, or OTT, service providers.

Ambani said the new RCom will be valued at Rs15,000 crore. The business, he said in a presentation, will be based on a capex-light model and will generate sustainable cash flows, with 50% of revenue and 60% of operating profit coming from outside of India.

Most observers expect Modi to win the Gujarat election when votes are counted on Dec. 18. But the narrowed lead is surprising for a bastion of BJP support such as Gujarat, as well as for Modi, whose party has swept to power in most state elections since he took national office in 2014. 

Capping days of relentless campaigning, Modi said in a rally in Surat that people of Gujarat would vote for the BJP. “My single aim is to ensure development and improve the lives of the poor,” he said on Thursday.

Anything other than a comfortable victory for Modi would surprise investors betting on a clear win in Gujarat, as well as five more years of Modi’s government on the other side of 2019. "Market assumptions so far have been of a comfortable BJP victory in Gujarat, and that the momentum continues till 2019," wrote Mumbai-based Credit Suisse analysts Neelkanth Mishra and Prateek Singh in a Dec. 5 note.

 

Elections have been catalysts for volatility, both up and down, in India over much of the last couple of decades. Modi led the BJP to victory for the first time in 14 years in Uttar Pradesh last July and that buoyed sentiment that he would carry over his majority into the 2019 general elections. The result was that the Nifty Index’s rally picked up, before pausing in August near the psychological 10,000. 

While the long term structural macro outlook remains unambiguously positive, we think India is also poised for a cyclical upturn in growth, and that the worst of the growth-slowdown, caused by temporary disruption and technical factors related to external trade, is behind us. The economy has already started to stabilize post GST and high frequency indicators are showing a rebound, which should eventually reflect a recovery in July-Sep’17 GDP growth (DB estimate 6.4%). While we expect growth to average around 6.6% during FY18, we are more optimistic about the outlook for FY19 and beyond.

We also note that growth momentum generally improves in the year prior to the elections (India’s next general elections are to be held in May 2019 or earlier), which is likely to play out in this cycle as well. We think given the various reforms that are operational at this stage and that have been implemented by this government so far, it is reasonable to expect growth to return close to 8.0% by FY20, absent any external shock that could jeopardize this baseline outlook.

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

At a talk I gave for the CFA in San Francisco in 2013 I made the point that rather than comparing India to China it was probably more appropriate to compare India’s development to the UK’s and China’s to the USA. The reason for this was because the USA built its infrastructure and cities on a grid system with clear delineation between public and private responsibilities which to one extent or another China has followed. 

Away from the debate on whether the recapitalization bonds will – and should – be treated as an ‘above the line’ item in the Budget or not, and hence the optics on the Budget Deficit;

the issuance of such a large quantum over a period of 12 months will pressurize an already weak technical position for the bond markets by detracting from the public sector bank appetite for general government issuance (center and state). The specifics of the recap bonds (whether eligible for SLR, whether marketable etc.) will determine the extent of substitutability between recap bonds and other government paper. Note also the backdrop of recent lowering by RBI of both the mandatory SLR for banks, and the limit on SLR securities held under the HTM category, which should reduce the overall appetite from banks for SLR paper – and in particular for duration. There are two mitigating factors to consider though – a) that the banking system remains flush with liquidity (as obvious in the money parked with RBI) created by the demonetization exercise from late last year, and b) possible reduction in RBI OMO sales given that this recap bond issuance will, at least temporarily, take some surplus liquidity out of circulation. The net sum though, we expect, to still be negative for the demand technicals of the markets. Comes as this does together with increasing likelihood of slippage in deficit for the current FY (unless the government manages to get additional dividends from PSUs) – and likely putting at risk the FRBM Committee recommendation for 3% target for next FY – the technical picture overall points to risk of higher rates and steeper curves still in India. We stay underweight in our exposure to duration.

 

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

Indian 10-yr government bond yields contracted from 9.5% in 2013 when the Rupee was among the weakest currencies in the world to lows of 6.2% in late 2016. The yield has broken its downtrend over the last year and a sustained move below 6.5% would be required to question support building. 

We expect the stocks to trade above their historical averages on P/BV given cleaned-up balance sheets and lack of foreign ownership. Hence, we assign core F19e multiples of 1.1x for SBI and BOB and 1x for PNB . This compares to the three-phase residual income model approach we previously used to value corporate banks. The table below summarizes our key assumptions for these banks: cost of equity (no change), sustainable RoE (no prior assumptions because we used RI models),and long-term growth (no prior assumptions because we used RI models). We leave the valuations of non-bank entities and cost of equity unchanged. This drives the price target and scenario value changes at these banks. We double upgrade SBI and PNB to OW. We upgrade BoB to EW. 

Both ICICI Bank and Axis have been affected by continued NPLformation and inability to get ahead of the problems. These banks are not the direct beneficiaries of the government's move. However, they should benefit in two ways: 

1. With SOE banks properly capitalised, they can finally see proper clearing of NPLs in the system.

2. This makes it easier for the RBI to implement IND-AS in F19 as SOE banks will not be constrained by capital from taking the necessary hits. The implementation will allow private lenders to recognise losses in the transition period, raise capital (if needed),and potentially move to normalised provisioning from F19 itself.

 

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

India has hundreds of millions of young people entering the workforce over the next decade and has one of the lowest average aged populations in the world. In order to deliver a path to a better standard of living, which can ensure social cohesion, it is going to need credit growth. 

India’s government has won a resounding reception from investors and credit-rating firms for its unprecedented pledge of 2.11 trillion rupees ($32 billion) in capital for the country’s beleaguered state banks.

The move, which drove an index of government-run banks up as much as 26 percent, is part of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s goal to help lenders meet tighter capital-reserve requirements, as slower economic growth and falling demand erode borrowers’ ability to repay loans. Soured debt is now the highest since 2000, hampering credit expansion that’s needed to spur Asia’s third-largest economy.

“The proposed infusion is a sizable jump over what had been pledged before as India is seeking to plug a large part of the core equity gap at the state-run banks,” said Jobin Jacob, a Mumbai-based associate director at Fitch Ratings Ltd. This addresses “weak core capitalization, one of the key drivers for our negative outlook on the South Asian nation’s banking sector.”

Moody’s Investors Service analyst Srikanth Vadlamani said the move is a “significant credit positive” for India’s state- run banks. The amount of capital pledged is enough to address the lenders’ solvency challenges and recapitalize them adequately, Vadlamani, who is vice president of the financial institutions group at the unit of Moody’s Corp., said by phone.

 

Non-performing loans have been one of the biggest concerns of international investors in India over the last few years. Despite the obvious benefits of digitisation of the economy, the upgrading of mobile networks from 2G to 4G and the slow and steady pace of reform, the parlous condition of the banking sector was the one reason I heard more than any other that deterred investors from participating in the Indian market.  

Digitization is that idea in India, right now. The government and the Central Bank are on a mission to rapidly formalize and financialize the Indian economy. India has introduced a universal biometric identification system (Aadhaar), initiated measures to boost financial inclusion (Jan Dhan), moved to a new fully online value-added goods and services tax system and implemented real-time payment systems (Unified Payments Interface and Bharat QR). Coupled with rising smartphone penetration, likely doubling from 300 million to nearly 700 million by 2020, these changes are driving India's digitization. We expect a step change in India's per capita income, banking system and stock market performance over the coming years. The channels of change include more financial penetration,
greater tax compliance and increased credit to micro enterprises and consumers.

The result could be a multi-trillion dollar investment opportunity. Aside from the near-term teething issues involved in execution of such big changes and other cyclical problems faced by the economy, there is scope for visible shifts in economic activity starting in 2018 eventually leading to India being a) the third-largest economy in the world with a GDP of US$6 trillion, b) among the top five equity markets in the world with a market capitalization of US$6.1 trillion and c) the country with the third-largest listed financial services sector in the world with a market cap of US$1.8 trillion by 2027. We also expect India's consumer sectors to add about US$1.5 trillion to their current market cap of US$500 billion over this period.

There are implications beyond India. The concomitant increase in e-commerce, consumption basket, financial products and investments will make India a significant market for global corporations. Most importantly, if India succeeds, it will become the template for other emerging nations. While increasing financial inclusion has been the policy objective across emerging nations, India can provide leadership with its unique model. Hence, it is very important for corporates, investors and policymakers across the globe to observe and understand these developments in India. Indeed, there may be lessons for developed countries too.  

 

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

Governance is Everything but it is not an absolute designation. Governance is all about the trajectory of policy and in India we can unabashedly say the trend is upwards. That is of course in full realisation that is it coming from a low base. 

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

There were a number of interesting points raised but I believe the most relevant for subscribers’ centre on what he said about shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet, the outlook for the Dollar, commodity markets, the relative attractiveness of emerging markets and his best guess for when to expect the next recession.

``India will account for more than half of the increase in Asia’s workforce in the coming decade, but this isn’t just a story of more workers: these new workers will be much better trained and educated than the existing Indian workforce,’’ said Anis Chakravarty, economist at Deloitte India. ``There will be rising economic potential coming alongside that, thanks to an increased share of women in the workforce, as well as an increased ability and interest in working for longer. The consequences for businesses are huge.’’

While the looming ‘Indian summer’ will last decades, it isn’t the only Asian economy set to surge. Indonesia and the Philippines also have relatively young populations, suggesting they’ll experience similar growth, says Deloitte. But the rise of India isn’t set in stone: if the right frameworks are not in place to sustain and promote growth, the burgeoning population could be faced with unemployment and become ripe for social unrest.

 

India has lots of young people who urgently need work and millions more entering the workforce over the coming decades. Little wonder China is racing to move up the value chain in manufacturing and employing robots to boost productivity. Competition for the moniker of workshop of the world is heating up and India has a fighting chance at providing competitive low-cost labour, with no language barrier, to the world’s manufacturers of low cost goods, many of whom are owned by China. The key to achieving that kind of growth in employment will be heavily dependent on standards of governance improving. 

A point I have made repeatedly in big picture long-term audios is that the rollout of 4G to India’s hundreds of millions illiterate unbanked masses is a gamechanger for the economy.

Asia is enjoying better growth so far this year versus 2016. Of the 11 countries we track in Figure 1, seven registered faster growth in 2017 (based either on Q1 or H1 GDP data). China leads the pack, growing 6.9% in H1 – we now think China may register faster growth in 2017 than 2016; this would be the first time that annual growth has not slowed since 2010. Of the three economies that underperformed versus 2016, India was due to demonetisation, the Philippines was slower versus a high base and Korea’s Q2-2016 growth was boosted by budget front-loading.   

The region is benefiting from a pick-up in external demand. All the economies we track above are enjoying faster export growth. As a whole (excluding China, Indonesia and Vietnam), exports rose 13% y/y in 5M-2017. A caveat is that 32% of the increase went to China. This is reflected in the export broadness index above, which shows a relatively narrow export destination profile for the region so far this year. We expect Asia’s export performance to ease in H2 on the back of growth moderation in China and less favourable price base effects.  
Comparatively, domestic economic activity appears more divergent across the region. Credit growth remains soft in several economies, reflecting still-cautious domestic sentiment. Government-led infrastructure in places such as Indonesia and Thailand will be needed to mitigate soft private investment. 

 

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

There are two ways of looking at the impressive performance of Asia’s stock markets. The first is that it reflects the region’s continued economic outperformance driven by favourable demographics and leverage to global economic expansion. The second is that they do not exist in a bubble and both US interest rates and the Wall Street Leash Effect cannot be ignored. 

While bond markets are rallying as investors wager the data will trigger a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of India, the figures signal the economy faces hurdles even as the stock market surges to a record, the rupee rallies and the world’s major economies head into an era of higher borrowing costs.
There’s a realistic chance of a 25-basis point rate reduction in August, Indranil Pan, chief economist at IDFC Bank Ltd., said. “It could be a very close call as the RBI is expected to remain cautious of the international rhetoric of tighter monetary policy and unwinding of quantitative easing," Pan said in a note.

Some of the pessimism stems from the fact that is India is still recovering from a cash ban that interrupted employment for millions, forced farmers into fire sales of agricultural produce and bogged down the manufacturing sector. The introduction of a goods and services tax on July 1 only added to the confusion while a glut of bad loans means businesses are not borrowing to invest in Asia’s third-largest economy.

Bank credit to industry contracted in the year to May, while deposits surged following the ban of high-denomination notes in November, leaving the banking system grappling with surplus cash.

Data on Wednesday showed headline consumer price inflation fell to 1.5 percent in the year to June from an annual 2.2 percent a month ago and below forecasts for a 1.6 percent reading. That’s below the RBI’s medium term target of 4 percent and through the bottom of its 2 percent projection for the first-half. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and fuel items, also slipped below 4 percent.

 

For long suffering investors who forced themselves to accept India’s persistently high inflation, weak currency and lumpy growth, the last year must feel like a blessing. The prospect of RBI rate cuts is gaining credence and that is being reflected in the outperformance of the stock market. 

Ashish Shah, head of equities at Mumbai-based A.C. Choksi Share Brokers Pvt., said his firm placed orders for AU Small Finance Bank Ltd. on its first day of trading. As of 3:15 p.m. local time, he was still waiting to find out if his firm owned the stock, which rose 51 percent on its debut.

“We punched in the trades and they are still pending, and we don’t know whether we got the shares,” said Shah. “Will they be scrapped, reversed or executed? The bourse could have done a better job at communicating as clarity reduces chaos.”

The NSE handles about twice the stock volume of rival BSE Ltd. and controls about 80 percent of India’s derivatives market, which is among the world’s largest. The exchange company, which has filed for an initial public offering, has been embroiled in a probe into whether it allowed preferential access to some high-frequency traders. BSE saw its volume almost double over previous days, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“NSE deeply apologizes for the glitch,” it said in an emailed statement. “The matter is being examined by the internal technical team and external vendors, to analyze and identify the cause which led to the issue and to suggest solutions to prevent recurrence.” A Securities and Exchange Board of India spokesman declined to comment on the developments.

 

Trading halts as a result of glitchy software are not quite the same things as runs on prices due to panicky selling but are nonetheless an inconvenience and a symptom of how reliant the global market is on computers. 

2) Growth-inflation balance has improved and should remain; time now to focus on quality of growth
India continues to be one of the fastest growing economies in the world, but what has changed in recent years is the quality of growth-inflation mix. Currently India’s real GDP growth is in the 7-7.5% range, with CPI inflation anchored around 4.5%. This is markedly different from FY10-11 period, when real GDP growth averaged about 9.5%, but with CPI inflation running around 11.5%. While achieving high economic growth is important, it is more important in our view to achieve this along with low or acceptable inflation. In fact we would argue that it is imperative to get inflation and inflation expectations down, to achieve higher (and sustainable) growth and investments. From this perspective, there is no trade-off between growth and inflation in the long term.

In fact, we believe that today’s corporate sector balance sheet stress can be traced back to the developments of the FY10-11 period, when a lot of mal-investments took place, with entrepreneurs believing (wrongly) that high nominal GDP growth, negative real rates and stable rupee environment would continue for the foreseeable period. In reality (and in hindsight), the FY10-11 high growth period was an aberration and led to the formation of macro imbalances, which later would unravel in the form of a currency crisis in mid-2013. In our view, a large part of those mal-investments were caused by persistent and large negative real rates, which gave a false sense of confidence and comfort to the Indian entrepreneurs about potential high return on investments.

We are reasonably certain that similar type of macro imbalances will not be tolerated or allowed to be formed in the first place, given the changes that have taken place particularly with respect to RBI’s inflation management policy. With RBI formally committed to keep CPI inflation low, in the 4-5% range, and real rates positive in the 1.5-2.0% range, we believe chance of misallocation of capital, based on faulty market signals remain low in the future and would be dealt with decisively and proactively, if it were to manifest somehow. This would ensure that India’s growth-inflation mix remains prudent in the period ahead, which should help investors make decisions regarding long-term investments based on realistic expectations of returns and profit.

India’s current growth rate is below potential, as per various metrics, including the composite PMI, which has remained stagnant in the last three years. Furthermore, growth is mainly supported by consumption at this juncture (10.5%yoy real growth in FY17), with private investment remaining anemic due to the high leverage of the corporate sector and weak demand. Or in other words, the quality of growth is not optimal at this stage. In our view, a healthy mix of consumption and investment growth needs to be achieved to prevent macro imbalances and inflationary expectations from building up and monetary actions should be calibrated keeping this in mind. The developments of the last two years, where RBI has cut policy rate by 175bps but private investment momentum has weakened further, have raised doubts about the efficacy of monetary policy action to solve the malaise of the private sector.

We think both RBI and the government have been prudent with their monetary and fiscal policy stance in the past few years, focusing more on sustaining macro stability, rather than choosing the easy way out to prop up growth in the short-term. The strategy instead to focus on long-term structural reforms, like improving ease of doing business conditions in the country, will in our view help support a more robust and sustainable private sector capex cycle in the future, once demand starts coming back. India, in our view, is buying higher growth for the future by adopting a prudent macro policy stance at the current juncture.

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The RBI has done its best, through a change of leadership following Modi’s election, to stick to an inflation targeting strategy that delivers on real growth rates. That has allowed the currency to stabilise and the Rupee rallied from early this year to break a medium-term downtrend. 

On 5 May, 2017, the President of India cleared an ordinance proposed by the central government amending the Banking Regulation Act, giving the RBI greater powers to deal with stressed assets. The amendment was considered to be necessary to help resolve nearly Rs 10 lakh crore in stressed loans in the Indian banking sector. Through the Ordinance, the RBI hopes to speed up decision making which has been stuck due to the reluctance of bankers to take tough calls.

Immediately after the government’s ordinance was released, the RBI too released guidelines to allow the use of S4A and strategic debt restructuring (SDR) schemes as part of the corrective action plan (CAP) devised by joint lender forums (JLFs). The regulator also revised the minimum threshold to approve a CAP to 60 percent by value of the loan and 50 percent by the number of banks in the JLF. Banks that did not want to adhere to the JLF decisions were asked to leave the JLF by selling their loan exposure.

The framework released on Monday will likely be followed by operational guidelines. Key to these guidelines will be triggers used to invoke a specific course of action such as initiating bankruptcy proceedings.

Creating committees and expanding the size and scope of the OC seem like good measures. However, we must remember that the OC is only a group that checks for compliance. The key is still resolution, for which the RBI needs to come out with a clear strategy.

India is in something of a sweet spot right now. Nevertheless, the issue most institutional investors are worried about are valuations and the bad loans sitting on bank balance sheets. 

For the first time since 2010, the global economy is enjoying a synchronous recovery (see chart). The developed markets’ (DM) private sector is exiting deleveraging after several years of slow growth due to a focus on balance sheet repair and, after four years of adjustment, the emerging markets are in a recovery mode. These trends create a positive feedback loop. Indeed, the DM economies account for 60% of emerging market (EM) exports, so as their real import growth accelerates, EM exports are rebounding. What’s more, an improving EM outlook reduces DM disinflationary pressures. 

How sustainable is this recovery? Typically business cycles end with macrostability risks (price, external and financial) spiking, forcing policymakers to tighten monetary and/or fiscal policy. In this cycle, considering that emerging markets inflation and current account balances are moving toward their central banks’ comfort zones, it is unlikely that macrostability risks will surface soon. Moreover, the emerging markets now have high levels of real rate differentials vis-àvis the US, providing adequate buffers against normalization of the Federal 

DEVELOPED MARKET RISK. In our view, the key risk to the global cycle is apt to come from the developed markets— most likely the US, considering that it is most advanced in the business cycle. Moreover, the US tends to have an outsized influence on the global cycle, particularly the emerging markets. While price stability features prominently in debating the monetary policy stance of any central bank, financial stability is clearly emerging as an equally important factor.

How will it play it out? For insight, we can look at history. The late ’60s saw fiscal expansion at a time of strong growth and low unemployment. In the mid ’80s, the US pursued expansionary fiscal and protectionist policies in an improving economy. We look at similarities and differences versus today, analyzing asset class performance by fiscal deficit and unemployment quartiles.

To that end, private-sector leverage has picked up modestly in the US. In fact, the household-sector balance sheet, which was the epicenter of the credit crisis, had been deleveraging until 2016’s third quarter. Moreover, the regulatory environment has been relatively credit-restrictive. Hence, we see moderate risk to financial stability. However, risks could rise, considering that monetary policy is still accommodative, and particularly so if the administration eases financial regulations. Price stability is a critical risk, too—especially since the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index inflation rate is close to the Fed’s target and US unemployment is around the rate below which inflation could accelerate. Reflecting this, we expect the Fed to hike rates six times by year-end 2018 (see page 3). We expect other major DM central banks to take a less dovish/more hawkish stance

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The MSCI World Index broke out to new all-time highs in March and continues to extend that breakout. There is no denying that the Index is heavily weighted by the USA but it has been a generally firm period for global stock markets as economic growth figures pick up against a background where interest rates are still relatively accommodative. 

The National Association of Software and Services Companies (NASSCOM), a trade group that represents the Indian IT industry, played down the possible impact of the new USCIS memo. “The clarifying guidance should have little impact on NASSCOM members as this has been the adjudicatory practice for years and also, as several of our member executives have noted recently, they are applying for visas for higher-level professionals this year,” the association said in an emailed statement.

The Indian IT sector has been preparing for this sort of tightening for some time now. For instance, TCS, India’s largest IT services company, has sharply reduced the number of US visa applications: In 2016, it filed only 4,000 compared to 14,000 the year before. In 2015, the company also began tweaking its business model to effectively operate in “a visa-constraint regime,” former TCS CEO N Chandrasekaran explained in January.

Late last year, Infosys, the second-largest in the sector, too, signalled that it would look to hire local talent more aggressively in the US, a far cry from the turn of the decade when such companies were infamously called out for “body shopping“—i.e, hiring Indian software professionals to use them on short-term projects elsewhere.

Despite all such evasive action, though, the US clampdown will hurt the sector. “It’ll be a short-term jolt,” said Sanjoy Sen, a former Deloitte partner and doctoral researcher at UK’s Aston Business School, although the exact magnitude of the impact will depend on the size of the companies and their levels of preparation. Smaller firms with a headcount in the hundreds, in particular, may be harder hit, Sen said.

 

The Indian outsourcing sector is one of the country’s primary foreign revenue generators  and the ability to send workers to the US for medium-term project work has been an important support for that business model. The new US administration is already changing how the foreign worker program function and that represents a challenge for outsourcing companies. However if time differences could be overcome the evolution of cloud computing and distributed work environments mean that the absolute requirement to have programmers based in Silicon valley could be reduced. 

Currently, selling across the borders of India's 29 states means paying a central sales levy, which can't be set off against tax paid on raw materials procured from within a company's home jurisdiction. Those input credits will now be available under a GST.

This would do two things: One, given enough competition, most manufactured goods should get cheaper, stoking demand. Two, more companies will want to engage in interstate commerce, which they avoid at present by moving goods (without selling) to their own small, inefficient warehouses around the country.

Smaller Indian industrial firms -- those with less than $1 billion in revenue -- end up carrying more than five times their annual sales as inventory, compared with just 36 percent in China. A narrowing of this gap would boost profitability. More centralized warehousing would also boost demand for higher- tonnage trucks made by Tata Motors Ltd. and Volvo AB. 

But GST is also causing some anxiety. As Gadfly wrote last year, India is planning to employ Jeff Bezos of Amazon Inc. as its tax collector. All e-commerce marketplaces will deduct 2 percent from what they pay sellers of merchandise and deposit the money with the government. Sellers would then have to claim input-tax credits. The increase in working capital may be problematic for small businesses working on thin margins. Amazon India estimates that 180,000 jobs could be at risk.

 

India has a dismal record of collecting taxes which has led to all manner of levies on transactions to pad out state coffers. This has created an environment where business is penalised and interstate trade is less appealing than attempting to embark on overseas expansion. 

“The markets are trading at all-time-high multiples and are pricing in a lot, or expecting reforms to continue and growth to come back fairly quickly,”  Chhaochharia said. “The risk-reward is definitely not attractive.”

Skeptics like Chhaochharia are becoming harder to find as foreign and local investors pile into equities and analysts predict further gains. The S&P BSE Sensex will climb to 32,000 by year-end, up 10 percent from current levels, according to a survey of traders and investors by Bloomberg News on March 14, three days after Modi won the state polls. Citibank, which previously forecast the Sensex to reach 30,000 by September, now sees the gauge at 31,500 in December.

Overseas investors have plowed a net $3 billion into Indian equities in March, the biggest monthly inflow in a year, while mutual funds have been buyers for seven months through February.

The liquidity-aided euphoria saw a department store chain double in its trading debut on Tuesday, and an exchange-traded fund of state companies on Friday got bids for about four times the target.

 

10-year local currency Indian government bonds yield 6.82%. That’s well below the 9% which was on offer in 2014 but the question of the currency is much less pressing today than it was then. More than any other factors, the combined trends of the currency and the bond market offer a window into how large foreign investors view the prospects for India. 

“The U.S. Fed action was in line with market expectations and allayed concerns that the outlook comments might turn hawkish,” Hemant Kanawala, head of equities at Mumbai-based Kotak Mahindra Old Mutual Life Insurance Ltd., said on phone.

“This is positive for emerging-market flows and overseas inflows to Indian stocks will resume,” he said.

Resumption of foreign inflows and seven straight months of net purchases by local funds have boosted the valuations of Indian stocks to their highest level in more than six years. The Sensex traded at 17.3 times estimated 12-month earnings, the highest since November 2010.

Foreign funds have purchased $3.5 billion of local shares so far this year after a record $4.6 billion outflow in the three months through December. Domestic funds have been buyers for seven straight months through February, including a record 138 billion rupees ($2.1 billion) in November.

“In an environment where earnings haven’t been so exciting the valuations from the price-to-earnings perspective will always look expensive,” Kanawala said. “Price-to-book ratio is a better parameter in such cases.”

 

India has been making headlines for all the right reasons of late. The country has just moved from 2G to 4G mobile speeds which has the potential to unleash economies of scale in online business that were not previously possible. Efforts to boost manufacturing are paying dividends with Apple opening a factory in the country. Meanwhile Modi’s emphatic victory in, Congress Party dominated, Uttar Pradesh signals widespread public support for his administration’s reform and anti-corruption mandates. 

Although there is understandable scepticism given the government’s track record, our confidence on the implementation of free pricing for petroleum products stems from the following measures that the government has already taken: 

The extinguishing of the diesel subsidy in October 2014 and the revision of prices in line with changes in international prices without any government intervention; 

The increase in LPG and kerosene prices each month since June 2016; 

Increases in the auto fuel price even during elections and in times of sharp price increases for crude; 

The aggressive implementation of Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) to LPG and kerosene to contain subsidies. 

FCF yield improves by up to 280 bps over FY17-20 
Operating cash flow for OMCs will likely be driven by improvement in marketing margins, rising refining margins and higher volumes. Over FY17-20, the FCF yield of state-owned OMCs should improve dramatically, by more than 280bps for IOC and BPCL. HPCL, with capex starting from FY18, will likely see its FCF yield decline by 130 bps. We expect the OMCs to generate robust free cash flows of about USD10bn over FY18-22E. We also estimate net debt/equity of OMCs to decrease further over FY16-22E – HPCL from 1.6x in FY16 to 0.6x in FY22, IOC from 0.6x in FY16 to 0.2x in FY22, and BPCL from 0.7x in FY16 to 0.1x in FY22.

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India is a quickly growing economy that needs to take the greatest possible advantage of its democratic dividend before that massive young population ages. Smoothening out what has often been a distinctly anti-business regulatory regime with a reputation for fickle decisions has been one of Modi’s ambitions in taking on the bureaucracy. Therefore there is reason for some optimism that policy continuity can be achieved in more sectors. 

The telecom arm of Reliance IndustriesBSE -0.01 %, which debuted in September last year, has already set a benchmark by hitting a subscriber base of 100 million in record 170 days. And with aggressive plans in place, it looks set to raise the bar, giving sleepless nights to the incumbents. 

The company is heavily banking on building significant data capacity and triggering price elasticity for data demand. 

At Jio’s first analyst meet last week, the company management indicated that currently about 1b GB/month data is getting consumed on Jio and it will have the capacity to offer about 4b GB data per month by the end of FY17. According to the management, it should be able to cater to 60 per cent of estimated data demand at 6b GB per month by FY21. 

 

Reliance Industries has a footing in just about all of India’s biggest industries. It went through a significant capital expenditure program to build the nation’s most comprehensive 4G network and is now reaping the rewards. Considering that the vast majority of India now has the opportunity to move from 2G to 4G the potential for growth in ancillary services is considerable.  

Rupee rose to strongest in 8 weeks as PM Modi stuck to fiscal prudence in budget presented Wednesday, Fed signaled it wasn’t in a hurry to raise U.S. rates.

USD/INR falls 0.2% to 67.3725, lowest since Dec. 8; seventh day of losses is longest losing streak since Dec. 8

Positive stock sentiment in response to budget may keep INR bears at bay for now, Citibank says in note. Medium-term trend remains dependent on broader USD trend, global risk sentiment, oil prices

Tailwinds from declining oil prices, widening real rates now dissipating, issues of competitiveness may soon arise. Stays tactically neutral INR, no longer bullish for medium term

Buy rupee as India budget shows fiscal prudence, Scotiabank says

Contained budget gap to give RBI room to cut rates, S&P Global Ratings says Govt endeavor is to improve on FY18 fiscal gap est., 

Economic Affairs Secretary Das says Expect bond yields to remain range bound over the next 5-6 weeks on positive investment demand from banks, CPI expected to stay sub-4% in Jan./Feb. and supply lull in February and March, says Morgan Stanley in note dated Monday
Expectations for RBI rate cut at the Feb. 8 monetary policy meeting Yield on govt bond due Sept. 2026 drops 3bp to 6.40%

 

The Rupee had been reflecting widespread angst that the Indian budget would be inflationary in nature and that fear had been weighing on sentiment not least in the aftermath of demonetisation. With a more fiscally responsible tone being set, the Dollar has pulled back to test its progression of higher reaction lows. A sustained move below it would signal Rupee dominance beyond the short-term. 

Thank you for another very well done video commentary. I think it was excellent. When you or any one from the collective have time, could you please share their/your views on the effect of India's move to change their currency bills. Thanks in advance

Thank you for your kind words and I am delighted you are enjoying the video commentaries, which have so far been very well received and are a further example of how technology is advancing the ease with which we can communicate. 

Global headwinds and domestic uncertainties prevail in Nov’16
November’16 was a perfect storm for India, as rising US bond yields, a strengthening USD, and EM risk aversion, coupled with an unprecedented demonetization drive in India, led to a significant decline in Indian assets. MSCI India was down 5.3% during the month – underperforming MSCI EM/Asia by ~300bps. While equity markets underperformed MSCI EM/Asia for a fourth month, INR performed better than many EM currencies. INR depreciated by 2.4% in the month while other EM currencies such as TRY, MXN, BRL, and IDR depreciated by 4%-10%.

Sectors relatively immune to demonetization were clear outperformers 
The sectoral performance during the month was clearly driven by the market’s assessment of the likely impact of the demonetization drive. Sectors with a global orientation or that saw significant cash inflows after demonetization were outperformers. Accordingly, BSE Metals, BSE Power, BSE IT, BSE Oil & Gas and BSE Healthcare were the outperforming sectors. On the other hand, given the disruptive ramifications of demonetization for (i) consumption sentiment, (ii) the operations of businesses with a meaningful reliance on cash transactions, (iii) the wealth effect and (iv) expectations of further follow-up action on unaccounted wealth, BSE Realty, BSE Consumer Durables and BSE Auto were the biggest underperforming sectors, with the respective indices declining by 18%/13%/9% during the month. 

Tale of two investors: 8-year-high selling by FIIs matched by record DII buying 
The flows of domestic and foreign investors touched multi-year records, albeit in different directions. Driven by hardening US bond yields and generic risk aversion towards EMs, foreign institutional investors [FIIs] were net sellers of Indian equities at US$2.6bn – the highest monthly outflows since the global financial crisis eight years ago. However, sharp FII outflows were matched by equally robust inflows from domestic institutional investors [DIIs], which net bought US$2.7bn – the highest since at least 2007 and most likely the highest ever monthly inflows. The sharp surge in DII inflows could be attributable to (i) strong inflows into mutual funds in the preceding months, (ii) a likely continuation of strong inflows into MFs in Nov’16, (iii) lower valuations for stocks hit by demonetization, (iv) a sharp surge in buying by insurance companies (at US$687mn) after eight months of net outflows/anemic inflows.

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The Dollar surged to test its high against the Rupee following Trump’s election success and the demonetisation announced soon afterwards. It has unwound much of the It unwound much of that advance over the last 10 sessions as optimism about the success of Modi’s strategy to legitimise large parts of the economy improved. The concurrent release of 4G mobile services is an additional tailwind since it opens up whole new avenues for growth that did not exist a month ago, not least for mobile banking and payments.  

Indian companies including Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys and Wipro have long used H1-B skilled worker visas to fly computer engineers to the U.S., their largest overseas market, temporarily to service clients.

Staff from those three companies accounted for around 86,000 new H1-B workers in 2005-14. The U.S. currently issues close to that number of H1-B visas each year.

President-elect Trump's campaign rhetoric, and his pick for Attorney General of Senator Jeff Sessions, a long-time critic of the visa program, have many expecting a tighter regime.

"The world over, there's a lot of protectionism coming in and push back on immigration. Unfortunately, people are confusing immigration with a high-skilled temporary workforce, because we are really a temporary workforce," said Pravin Rao, chief operating officer at Infosys, India's second-largest information technology firm.

 

India has benefitted enormously from the offshoring of jobs in the customer service, programming, IT and pharmaceuticals sectors. However a number of these large Indian companies are dependent on ready access to their US based customers so they can offer the best possible service which is why India has tended to dominate H1B visa applications. When headlines such as this one highlight how India got 84% of such visas in 2014 there are very real risks that a more protectionist administration could pose a threat to India’s heretofore comfortable access to Silicon Valley. 

Rupees: for the sake of clarity following your comments of the 9th and today, please note that the R1000 is being replaced by the new R2000. The net effect, therefore, is to increase the circulation of high-value notes. So far as gold is concerned, now that so many people have learnt that fiat money can be made valueless at a stroke, the attraction of keeping some money in precious metals has increased. (I am visiting India and have found it salutary to have a practical lesson in what I had always understood theoretically.) My guess is that the recent decline in gold follows expectations of rising interest rates.

And

Any follow-up to your article discussing the demonetisation of India's 500 and 1,000 rupee notes? The Bombay Bank Index initially shot up but has retraced all of the move. Chaos seems to have ensued, but would like to hear from the community

 

Thank you for this clarifying that the removal of the old R1000 and R500 notes is in fact about removing old notes from circulation and forcing consumers and business people to move onto the new notes. The primary aim would appear to be to get more people to declare their income but as you point out the introduction of a new R2000 note is also a potential source for new black market activities. 

The surprise move, announced on Tuesday evening, is part of a crackdown on corruption and illegal cash holdings.

Banks will be closed on Wednesday and ATM machines will not be working.

India is overwhelmingly a cash economy. New 500 and 2,000 rupee denomination notes will be issued to replace those removed from circulation.

"Black money and corruption are the biggest obstacles in eradicating poverty," Mr Modi said.
People will be able to exchange their old notes for new ones at banks over the next 50 days but they will no longer be legal tender.

The announcement prompted people across the country to rush to ATMs that offer 100 rupee notes in an attempt not to be left without cash over the next few days.

 

Bribes are most often paid in cash so removing high value notes makes it somewhat more difficult to stuff money into an envelope. For a country like India where the government needs tax income to fund social and infrastructure projects, the war on cash is an understandable project. Even the ECB has committed to stop printing €500 notes by the end of 2018 because of the role these high value denominations have in allowing money to be moved around often for nefarious activities. 

Why retirement? Substantial savings for state utilities, better efficiency
India is planning a retirement policy to dispose of 18% of India’s coal-fired old capacity (36GW) over 5-6 years, starting with 6GW (2.2%) by Mar’17. Stringent new pollution norms and a coal linkage transfer policy have been instigated to hasten the retirement. Retirement will lower coal consumption by ~30% and will also cut pollution and reduce the tariff burden for state utilities.

Replacement is warranted and pressing
The states’ role in power generation is declining and will trigger a new capex cycle, for energy security. Additionally, with shut-downs we estimate annual requirement of 19-22GW projects to avoid power shortages. Government (CEA) estimates corroborate the requirement of 24GW annually. Rising PLFs should exceed the 2008 peak by FY19-20e, necessitating further investments now – as the power project cycle is six years from concept to commissioning.

Stage-I Capacity utilisation recovery to benefit utilities (Prefer NTPC)
With higher retirement and lower supply addition (just a 2% CAGR over FY17-22E) – we believe capacity utilisation rates are likely to stage a strong recovery. We raise PLF estimates for utilities by 2-3pps beginning FY18E. With 37% volume growth over four years and valuations still at a c20% discount to the historical average, the sector looks attractive.

 

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Revitalising the electricity utility sector to remove outdated coal fired stations and to build new more efficient operations is a very positive development. It is also a testament to the ability of the new government to remove roadblocks to Indian infrastructure development that investors despaired would ever be achieved under the last administration. 

Indian sovereign bonds also advanced on Tuesday. Urjit Patel assumed charge as the Reserve Bank of India’s 24th governor on Sept. 4, succeeding Raghuram Rajan. Patel’s first test will come Oct. 4 -- a scheduled monetary policy review -- where investors will gauge if governorship reduces his traditional reticence.

“An interest-rate increase by the Fed is unlikely,” said Rohan Lasrado, Mumbai-based head of foreign-exchange trading at RBL Bank Ltd. “Inflows into stocks remain strong and that’s supporting the rupee.”

The rupee climbed 0.5 percent to 66.5250 a dollar at the close in Mumbai, according to prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg. It rose to 66.49 earlier, the strongest level since May 9. Tuesday’s gain reduced the currency’s 2016 loss to 0.6 percent, Asia’s worst performance after China’s yuan. RBL Bank expects the rupee to appreciate to 66.40 a dollar in the near term should equity flows sustain their momentum, Lasrado said.

“We don’t expect a change in the RBI’s foreign-exchange management under the new leadership,” he said. “They will love to buy dollars at dips and refrain from intervening should the rupee weaken in line with Asian fundamentals.”

 

The RBI engaged in a reserve accumulation policy which put pressure on the Rupee between mid-2014 and early this year when the currency tested its spike lows against the US Dollar. However it has stabilised over the last six months with the 6.5% base rate looking increasingly attractive in an environment where so many government bonds are trading on negative yields. 

European equity markets are by far the most global, more than their economies, and are most exposed to Emerging Markets (EM)

US equity market is the most closed of the Developed Markets (DM), a key ingredient to the US’s relative ‘safer-haven’ status

Japanese overseas revenues have grown sharply in recent years, but are now threatened by yen strength

EM stock markets are the most closed, accounting for the bottom seven countries in our ranking
Economies are not stock markets. DM and EM have similar exports/GDP levels, but DM stock markets are twice as global

Chinese corporates going abroad, but only generate 10% overseas today. Brazil corporates only 20% overseas after commodity slump 

Italy and India have ‘globalized’ the most in recent years

IT is the most global US sector; Healthcare the most global European sector. Utilities and telecom are respectively the most local

Overall overseas revenue contribution has stalled (at 44%) the last three years, as globalization has come under pressure

Looking at indices based on revenue rather than domicile transforms the investment universe: EM much larger, whilst US a lot smaller

 

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With the growth of the global consumer base we began to pay attention to large international businesses that dominate their respective sectors from about 2011. I developed the list of Autonomies by looking at data similar to that compiled in this report; using it to identify companies that have global businesses. In perusing the report veteran subscribers will no doubt be familiar with many of the names. 

Today is indeed a historic day," Finance Minister Arun Jaitley told reporters after the vote, noting it was significant that the vote passed unanimously. In a series of tweets, Modi congratulated lawmakers on a “path-breaking decision" and said “together we will take India to new heights of progress."

For answers to all your questions about GST, click here. 

The tax stands to benefit companies in the world’s fastest-growing major economy, where internal barriers to trade increase logistics and compliance costs. Indian equities climbed last week near the highest level since August 2015 as optimism increased that the measure would finally pass.
“GST is the poster child of the Modi government’s reform agenda,” said Nilang Mehta, senior investment analyst at HSBC Global Asset Management, which oversees assets of about $429 billion. “Pushing this through will provide a major boost to the credibility of the reform process in India.”

Plaudits rained in from India Inc. as it became apparent that the measure would pass on Wednesday evening. The country’s main business group hailed it as “one of the most awaited reform measures by the industry." PwC India called it “a momentous occasion." Microsoft India said it was a “positive development." Wal-Mart India praised it as an “extremely progressive step."

 

The Modi government has been criticised for the modest pace of reform since winning a landslide in the 2014 election. However, as he said at the time, there are a large number of small changes that can be made which can have a big impact and he has been delivering on as many of these small successes as was possible. Successfully rationalising the myriad sets of, often competing tax rates, within the economy by imposing a general sales tax is a major accomplishment and further emphasises that despite the heretofore slow pace governance is improving in India. 

“We had gotten used to decades of moderate to high inflation, with industrialists and governments paying negative real interest rates and the burden of the hidden inflation tax falling on the middle class saver and the poor. What is happening today is truly revolutionary – we are abandoning the ways of the past that benefited the few at the expense of the many."

“Indeed, the fact that inflation is fairly close to the upper bound of our target zone today suggests we have not been overly hawkish, and were wise to disregard advice in the past to cut more deeply." 

“If a critic believes interest rates are excessively high, he either has to argue the government-set inflation target should be higher than it is today, or that the RBI is excessively pessimistic about the path of future inflation. He cannot have it both ways, want lower inflation as well as lower policy rates."

“At the same time, the RBI does not focus on inflation to the exclusion of growth."

“The bottom line is that in controlling inflation, monetary policy makers effectively end up balancing the interests of both investors and savers over the business cycle."

“Decades of studying macroeconomic policy tells me to be very wary of economists who say you can have it all if only you try something out of the box. Argentina, Brazil, and Venezuela tried unorthodox policies with depressingly orthodox consequences."

Rajan has done an admirable job as Governor of the RBI so the big question for investors will be to what extent policy continuity can be achieved when his successor will be a political appointee. The decision will be a fresh test of Modi’s commitment to reform and long-term growth rather than short-term solutions. 

Mark Mobius is betting on shares of smaller Indian companies to profit from expansion in the world’s fastest-growing major economy.

“If you factor in the reforms that are taking place and the impact they can have on company earnings, it tells us that India is on the cusp of an interesting opportunity,” Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, said in an interview to Bloomberg Quint in Mumbai. The money manager has $2 billion in Indian stocks, of which more than $600 million is invested in shares of small companies, he said.

The S&P BSE SmallCap gauge of 762 small companies has fallen 5.4 percent this year, compared with the 2.8 percent advance in the S&P BSE Sensex, as some of the worst-performing stocks on the benchmark index last year rebounded in 2016. The smaller companies are likely to climb after trailing the rally in the biggest shares as benefits from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s growth-boosting measures take hold, Mobius said.

 

Progress in reforming the Indian economy is slow but it is happening and one of the highest economic growth rates in the world is a testament to the benefits improving governance can deliver. Continued speculation about whether Rajan will seek or indeed receive another term as governor of the RBI is likely to become more important as the urgency of the decision increases but in the meantime India represents a bright spot on the global tapestry of markets. 

world. Zurich leads the way, followed by Sydney, London, Milan, Stockholm, Copenhagen, NYC, San Francisco, Amsterdam and Madrid. Tokyo is amongst the most expensive cities on most measures but surprisingly cheap hotel rooms (more akin to EM prices) help push it below many others. Our cheap date index sees Zurich, Copenhagen, Tokyo, Stockholm and Amsterdam as the most expensive cities to woo a partner. One might choose to settle down at a younger age in these countries or risk expensive courtships. London has dropped 2 places this year and out of the top 5. At the other end of the scale, cities in Malaysia, India and South Africa are the cheapest for a weekend away and around a third of the cost of the most expensive places. For those wanting a real cheap ‘cheap date’, India, Indonesia, the Philippines and South Africa are the places to go. Indeed in all of these places you can have at least 4 dates for the price of one in Zurich but please don’t tell the other 3 people! 

Don’t lose your phone while away in Brazil, India, Sweden, Denmark or Italy as a new iPhone is most expensive there. The US remains the place to buy a new one, followed by HK and Japan. Interestingly there are signs that perhaps Uber is making its mark on the world as taxi prices in many places are falling sharply. Indeed in San Francisco (where Silicon Valley resides), taxi prices have fallen more than anywhere in the DM world over the last 12 months (-30%). 

Bad habits cost you most in Melbourne, Singapore, Auckland, NYC and London as our ‘sin index’ of cigarettes and beers suggests. Singapore and Copenhagen really don't want you to own new cars as prices are nearly 4 times and 2 times the cost of NYC here. Buying a new car in India is half the price of NYC if you can find a way of driving it home. In addition to the aforementioned items this report also looks at the cost of various goods and services across the world. The index page provides the full list.

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

Scrolling through the constituents of this index, the same group of countries crop up at the top and bottom of the most and least expensive. Part of the reason for this is because of relative states of economic development but the declines in many emerging market currencies is another consideration and helps to highlight how much competitiveness can be gained from a prolonged period of currency devaluation. 

Despite its impressive growth record over the past decade and a half, India’s structural deficiencies are well known, holding back its potential. Infrastructure is poor, goods market efficiency suffers from excessive regulation, labor market is inflexible, little is spent on health and education, and both the economy and financial markets have been hampered by heavy handed state intervention.

Our analyses show that not only is India in a mediocre cohort with respect to its structural strength, it has in fact slipped in recent years. While education attainment has improved marginally and the economy has undergone a few bouts of liberalization measures, there have been setbacks in areas such as goods market efficiency, labor and financial markets, along with no discernible improvement in institutional quality. India scores particularly poorly on infrastructure.

It is too early to tell if the new government that came to power in mid-2014 will be able to improve India’s structural scores expeditiously. Efforts to maintain fiscal discipline, raise the efficiency of cash transfer to the poor, reduce wasteful subsidies, tackle corruption, improve health indicators, pass the much-belated Goods and Services Tax legislation, widen the scope of privatization, liberalize the labor market, break down goods market cartels, pass business friendly laws, etc are welcome, but clearly the to-do list is arduously long

Furthermore, the structural scores would rise only when such measures are pushed through successfully, many of which would likely receive pushback from vested interests and face numerous other implementation risks, especially related to the political calendar. We appreciate the goal of the government to improve India’s ranking in the cost of doing business surveys, but would need to see a broader range reform initiatives in order to anticipate decisive improvement in structural rankings. 

 

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

Structural reform is perhaps the clearest evidence of improving standards of governance. However if one waits for the full effects to take shape the chances are the market will have already priced in the majority of the positive outcome. There is no doubt that India has many challenges facing its economy in achieving greater efficiencies and growth outcomes for more of its people. 

I noted the Nifty & Sensex indices did a weekly reversal early March, which you mentioned in your Comment of the Day. At that time you were looking for a move above the moving average to confirm upside potential, which if I am correct has happened now. How do you now interpret the prospects for the Indian market?

Thank you for this email sure to be of interest to subscribers. The Indian stock market trended lower for a year; losing about a quarter of its value in nominal terms before finding support in February.

The rupee’s relative strength since February has flattered the performance of foreign denominated funds and as you point out the main stock market index is now trading back above its 200-day MA.

Rajan is boosting reserves to counter any volatility in outflows amid slowing growth in China and prospects that the Federal Reserve will consider raising U.S. interest rates. The rupee, down 0.4 percent this year in Asia’s worst performance, slumped to a record in August 2013 as indications the U.S. would curtail monetary stimulus spurred investors to pull back from emerging markets.

“With flows coming back into the market, the RBI has been there and buying at every dip,” said Rohan Lasrado, Mumbai-based head of foreign-exchange trading at RBL Bank Ltd. “Speculators who see that the RBI has the firepower will not try to depreciate or take advantage of the situation, compared to earlier times when reserves were low and India saw outflows.”

 

India has a sound pair of hands in its central bank governor who was appointed following a particularly dire period when the Rupee was accelerating lower. Over the last two years he has allowed the currency to trade back towards its 2013 nadir as the policy of reserve accumulation took its toll. A break in the Dollar’s progression of higher reaction lows, currently  in the region of INR65.6, would signal a return to Rupee demand dominance. 

Investors have grown disillusioned with India. Deteriorating corporate profitability, a depreciating currency and concerns that momentum on reform was slower than had been expected have contributed to a reversal of investors’ previous optimism on investment prospects. After foreign investors brought in more than USD60bn over an 18-month period from late 2013 to early 2015, flows have reversed since May last year.
 
While these concerns are valid, sentiment may now have turned too negative. In the near-term, we see little reason to expect a significant decline in the trend growth rate of about 7% on real GDP even though fiscal and monetary policies are unlikely to provide much more support to growth from here. Unless inflation rises sharply and unexpectedly, consumption is likely to remain strong enough to support this rate of growth and we think it is reasonable to expect the improvement in investment conditions to yield an increase in investment growth. For that reason, we see growth rising modestly over the next few years. 

Will this be “Chinese-style” double-digit growth? Probably not. India faces some constraints on growth that China didn’t, and not (just) because it is a democracy. Its banking system is unlikely to be able to grow fast enough, the government itself is not in a position to provide the investment needed and the global backdrop is less supportive with slower growth and a rising protectionist tide than China faced. 

But India’s demographic profile lends a certain inevitability to growth being sustained at a high rate for a prolonged period as long as the government does not stand in the way. Since the government is committed to doing the opposite, to facilitating private investment by opening up the economy and improving the business climate, we remain fundamentally optimistic on India’s medium- and long-term prospects.

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

India’s RBI has been building reserves which amounts to selling the Rupee. This has acted as a headwind to foreign investors and as the above report highlights people are getting impatient with the pace of reform and the removal of impediments to economic expansion. 

(The work of laying sewerage facility in 162 U/A colonies is in progress. Out of total 9500 km appx. sewer to be laid, action for laying 407 km appx. is being taken up in current Financial Year) 

Yamuna Action Plan: Under YAP-I, two S.T.Ps of 2.2 MGD each were constructed at the mouth of Delhi Gate and Dr Sen Nursing Home drains at total cost of Rs. 11.52 crore in 1996.  Under  YAP-II,  5 projects  i.e. 12 MGD new STP at Keshopur, rehabilitation of 20 & 40 mgd STP at Keshopure, 30 mgd STP at Okhla, Laying of peripheral sewer line at Wazirabad Road for U/A Gp. of colonies, Rehabilitation of Bela Road Trunk sewer and Rehabilitation of Ring Road Trunk sewer were  completed.  Under YAP-III it is proposed to undertake rehabilitation of sewerage system ( Kondali & Rithala catchment),  Rising mains (Kondali & Rithala catchment), Tertiary treatment Plants (  Kondali, Rithala  and Okhla catchment)  and Waste Water Treatment Plants(  Kondali, Rithala  and Okhla catchment) 

Use of treated effluent: Present use of treated effluent is  142.4 MGD  from Keshopure, Okhla , Coronation Pillar, Delhi Gate, Sen Nursing Home and Rithala STP. and proposed for adding 66 MGD in near future for power plant at Bamnoli, Horticulture by DDA in Dwarka etc. The notification for sale of treated effluent  @ Rs. 7 per KL has been published.}

Sale of dry Sludge: lot  of  dry  sludge(manure) is being produced regularly at various Sewage Treatment Plants  of  Delhi  Jal  Board  as  a  by-product  .   This  manure  being  rich  in  nutrients  i.e Nitrogen,  Phosphorous,  Potassium  and  other  valuable organic  matter  is   quite useful for agriculture as a fertilizer and a soil conditioner.  This  manure,  is  henceforth  available  Free  of  Cost to  the  intending consumers  from  DJB’s  Sewage  Treatment  Plants. 

 

One of the reasons Narendra Modi attracted so many votes was because people despaired that progress on infrastructure would ever be achieved. It will be argued in some quarters that the measure we are now seeing the fruits of were introduced in the late stages of the last administration, but Modi will still probably get the credit. India needs vital infrastructure like water, sewage, roads, rail, ports and electricity to drive economic growth and to attract manufacturing. It’s an ideal time, with commodity prices still reasonable but it will have to move quickly because the pace of technological innovation is changing the paradigm of how growth was achieved in past cycles. 

"There was a bit of a pause, but they are back to the policy of reserves accumulation, building up the war chest, and really being able to continue to be able to dampen the volatility in the currency market,” said Mitul Kotecha, head of Asian foreign-exchange and interest-rate strategy at Barclays Plc in Singapore. “Rajan’s comments indicate the RBI is likely to steer the currency on a fairly steady depreciation path along the lines of keeping a fairly stable real-effective exchange rate.”

The rupee is Asia’s worst performer after South Korea’s won in the past three months as overseas funds pulled a net $3 billion from Indian stocks, and foreign holdings of local debt fell by $1.5 billion amid a global wave of risk aversion and slowing growth at home. The Indian currency fell 0.5 percent to 68.3825 a dollar on Tuesday. It sank to an unprecedented 68.8250 in August 2013.

“Our intent is not to depreciate the rupee in a steady way or anything of that sort,” Rajan said in a speech in the southern state of Kerala. “Our focus is on bringing down inflation so that people will not have to ask why the rupee is weakening.”

 

Reserve accumulation means the central bank is buying Dollars. That would appear to be an example of watching what the central bank is doing rather than listening too intently to what Rajan is saying. India wants a somewhat weaker currency and is unlikely to intervene unless it weakens too quickly. 

In the world’s second-most-populous country, manufacturing wages today are less than half China’s, after adjusting for productivity: $5.36 an hour compared with $14.60, according to Boston Consulting Group. Labor will be abundant and wage-growth stable, some factory owners reckon, for more than a decade.

Whether that is enough to offset other shortcomings that have stymied India’s rise as an export power—including roads and ports that badly need upgrading, power cuts and cumbersome bureaucracy—remains to be seen.

And 

John Leung, chairman of GFT Group Ltd., a manufacturer of Transformers, “Star Wars” and other toys for Hasbro that is based in China’s Guangdong province, said he plans to start producing soon from a rented factory in Chennai.

Eight years ago, GFT shifted much of its production from China to Vietnam, where today the company’s workers earn around $215 a month, less than Chinese counterparts’ salaries. But Vietnam is quickly becoming saturated with factories, Mr. Leung said.

“In the next eight to 10 years, Vietnam will be finished,” he said. He said Hasbro, based in Pawtucket, R.I., had urged him to set up shop in India.

 

Efforts are underway to develop machines that can cut and sew without human intervention but as of today every piece of clothing we wear requires someone to sit at a sewing machine and do the work. It’s time consuming and boring but there are a lot of people who want a lot of clothes so it is a major employer. The result is the garment industry is incredibly cost sensitive and will situate wherever labour is cheapest. 

“The market rebounded from an oversold territory as investors used the panic to add to their portfolios,” Jitendra Panda, chief executive officer at Peerless Securities Ltd., said by phone from Kolkata. “There’s speculation that moderating inflation will enable the Reserve Bank of India to lower rates next quarter.”

India’s wholesale prices fell for a 12th straight month even while the pace of deflation eased. Consumer prices -- the central bank’s benchmark -- rose 5 percent last month from a year earlier after a 4.41 percent climb in September. RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan has said he can reach his 5 percent CPI target for March 2017 with the current monetary stance. He reviews rates again on Dec. 1, having cut four times this year.

“We expect more than 200 basis points of rate cuts in 2015-2016,” Christopher Wood, chief equity strategist at CLSA Asia Pacific Markets, told reporters in Gurgaon, near New Delhi on Monday. “While earnings growth continues to be downgraded, the offsetting positive is the significant rate cuts.” The brokerage remains “overweight” on Indian equities because the country benefits more than its regional peers from lower oil and commodity prices, he said.

 

Few countries benefit more from low energy prices than India because it has very little in the way of domestic supply. While other countries are worried about deflationary forces India continues to benefit from disinflation as import prices decline. The current low oil price environment also benefits the government by allowing it leeway to reform the subsidy system without an immediate deleterious effect on the economy.

"Back to the point of how things are made is changing, here's a small group of people who were able to use the most advanced manufacturing to do things," Bass says. "And I think that's really upsetting the apple cart, in terms of small companies and small groups of people, who are empowered in ways to do things that used to require huge amounts of capital."

The thought that these Darwinian machines can crunch through countless possibilities, mutating designs until they produces something resembling the perfect solution, is a fascinating idea. Bass does acknowledge that the technology won't provide a one-size fits all approach, however, that there will be problems where generative design is an appropriate solution and problems that are better solved by human minds.

And as for the fabrication of future designs, both our own and those conjured up by computers? While 3D printing technology is advancing all the time, Bass is of the view that it will only ever complement existing techniques like subtractive manufacturing, rather than completely snuff them out.

"Does 3D printing replace all manufacturing? It's another tool in the toolbox," he says. "There will be times when 3D printing is awesome, there will be times when manufacturing is awesome. What I think the future of making things is, is this combination of having powerful design tools in order to make them, and the powerful fabrication techniques to realize those designs."

 

3D printing or additive manufacturing is a revolutionary development but perhaps more important is the fact that the above article highlights how innovative solutions can be combined to accelerate the pace of development. Tools now being developed will enable infrastructure development at a lower cost, lower energy intensity and lower resource requirement which has the potential to greatly enhance the quality of life for many more people. As costs decline demand will rise to create a long-term growth trajectory.  

“If the RBI decides to lower rates then certainly it will help the economy and some of the possible risk areas that we identified will get relief,” he said, referring to the Reserve Bank of India. “Inflation is under control.”

Central bank Governor Raghuram Rajan has rebuffed calls to cut interest rates as he awaits more clarity on whether consumer-price inflation will hit his 6 percent target for January. India has the fourth-highest borrowing costs among 14 Asia-Pacific countries tracked by Bloomberg.

Consumer prices eased to an eight-month low of 3.78 percent in July. Wholesale prices in July fell the most on record, according to data released on Friday.

Rajan left the repurchase rate unchanged at 7.25 percent on Aug. 4 after cutting it three times this year. While two of those cuts have come in unscheduled meetings, he’s held rates at three of four reviews in 2015.

The central bank expects CPI to hit 4 percent in August and rise toward the 6 percent target by January.

 

Japan and India are perhaps the two greatest beneficiaries of weak oil and commodity prices. This is now feeding through to Indian inflation measures and the recent more positive outlook for the monsoon should also help to mitigate inflation. The central bank is understandably cautious about lowering interest rates following the traumatic effect of the Rupee’s accelerating devaluation in 2013. 

Viet Nam's garment and textile export turnover to countries taking part in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations increased by 69.66 per cent in the first five months compared with the same period last year, according to the latest report from the Viet Nam Textile and Apparel Association (Vitas).

Exports to this market also accounted for 66.8 per cent of the sector's total export turnover. Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the US and Viet Nam are members of the TPP.

Exports to the US ranked top with US$4.05 billion, accounting for nearly 50 per cent of the export value to the countries joining the TPP agreement, a 53 per cent increase on the year.

Viet Nam's textile and garment export turnover to the US is expected to reach $11 billion by the end of the year, Dang Phuong Dung, Vitas deputy chairwoman told Hai Quan (Customs) newspaper.
Textile and garment export turnover to the US has increased dramatically in the past 20 years from zero to $9.8 billion in 2014.

The turnover could be doubled once the TPP is signed, she said, adding that it would benefit local enterprises. Garment products' import taxes would be reduced by 7 to 8 per cent, replacing the current 15 to 16 per cent.

 

The devaluation of the Dong has been a major benefit for Vietnam’s export sector and the fact that inflation is now slowing may raise hopes that the devaluation will continue to pause. 

“One of the most important decisions in relation to the investment is the introduction of composite caps for simplification of foreign direct investments,” Jaitley told reporters after the Cabinet meeting. 

The report by Justice AP Shah committee, looking into levying of minimum alternate tax (MAT) on foreign portfolio investors, should be out next week informed Jaitley. He said the Cabinet has also an expenditure of over Rs 8,500 crore on multi-state power transmission system. Welcoming the decision, Dinesh Kanabar told CNBC-TV18 the distinction between different types of foreign investments will no longer remain. 

"I would like to believe that across all sectors, wherever there is no sectoral cap today, we are now breaking the barrier between FDI and FII. You could have done that in any case by passing a board resolution which some of the companies did. But, in effect, what we are now saying is that in sectors where 100 percent FDI is permitted, we could actually have a 100 percent FII holding which is absolutely a very welcome step," he said. 

Echoing the sentiment, Pranav Sayta, Tax Partner, EY said Jaitley has implemented what he had promised in his Budget presentation this year. "I think it will certainly provide much greater flexibility, simplify things, make it far clearer, bring in certainty into ease of doing business."

 

Following an impressive performance last year India underperformed for much of this year and lost the attention of investors as China took off and Europe garnered column inches. However the reform minded government of Narendra Modi has not gone away and India is once again returning to favour as its relative strength makes headlines. The decision to streamline the ability of foreign companies to invest in India is a significant development because it helps to remove uncertainty. 

Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan cut the key rate by 25 basis points and said he will wait to assess monsoon rains before easing further, disappointing investors looking for more reductions to spur weak economic growth. The rainfall will be less than predicted in April, the government said less than two hours after the RBI’s decision. Below-normal showers may fan prices of everything from rice to vegetables in Asia’s third-largest economy, where food costs account for almost 50 percent of the consumer price index.

“This is a time when the economy needs a boost and these little drops of 25 basis points won’t help,” Ajay Srivastava, managing director of Dimensions Consulting Pvt., said in an interview with Bloomberg TV India. “A perfect environment will never exist.”

While retail inflation eased to a four-month low of 4.87 percent in April, staying below the RBI’s stated limit of 6 percent by January 2016, the prospect of inadequate rain and rising crude prices are risks, Rajan said. Consumer prices may drop until August and then start rising to about 6 percent by January, he said.

Despite the fact that India is growing rapidly, agriculture remains the dominant employer and the challenge of feeding more than a billion people is a constant concern. A weak monsoon is inflationary. The effect of rising oil prices, which have been climbing in Rupee terms, is an additional consideration for Rajan who earned his spurs as an inflation hawk. 

The rupee retreated 0.5 percent, snapping two days of gains, to 64.17 a dollar in Mumbai, prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg show. It touched 64.2650 earlier. The currency had fallen to 64.28 on May 7, the weakest level since September 2013. The S&P BSE Sensex index, India's benchmark equity gauge, slumped 2.3 percent.

"The recent rise in U.S. yields has put some pressure on Indian bonds," said Paresh Nayar, head of currency and money markets at FirstRand Ltd. in Mumbai. "That, along with weakness in local equities, is pulling down the rupee."

 

In addition to Narendra Modi's charisma and absolute majority, the stability of the Rupee, in the aftermath of an aggressive period of weakness, has been a major contributor to the confidence foreign investors feel towards India's development potential. With a safe pair of hands at the helm of the RBI, in Rajan, the Rupee's acceleration lower stopped in 2013. However its relative strength particularly against the currencies of its major trading partners, over the last year has been a headwind for the economy. 

Platinum – posts an upside key day reversal from above the psychological $1100 area. A clear downward dynamic would now be required to question potential for additional rebound. 

PM Modi’s “Make in India” initiative was endorsed by a global manufacturing giant. General Electric of the US inaugurated its 67-acre plant in Chakan, near the western city of Poona (which is close to Bombay). The new $ 200m manufacturing facility will be an export hub, with plans to send half of its output to the company’s global factories. The new plant is GE’s first multi-purpose manufacturing facility in India and will produce a range of products, including aviation, rail and diesel engines. The company hopes to win increased domestic orders also.

The National Association of Software and Services Companies (NASSCOM) expects India’s $ 150 bn IT outsourcing sector to see export revenue growth of 12-14% in the next fiscal year which starts on 1 April 2015. This compares with an estimated increase of 12% in the current fiscal year which will end on 31 March. The sector’s exports in 2015/16 are expected to touch $ 112 bn, according to NASSCOM. The sector is worth $ 150 bn in total after adding revenue generated from the domestic market. Future growth in the sector will be influenced by increasing demand from global companies for new high value services such as digital technology, mobile applications and cloud computing, according to NASSCOM. However, the export-driven outsourcing industry must focus on building a large pool of skilled workforce to avail of opportunities in the emerging high-end services segment, according to NASSCOM’s Chairman. R. Chandrasekaran. A shortage of qualified engineers to tap this segment poses a risk to the growth prospects of India’s showpiece IT sector. It accounts for about 10% of India’s GDP and employs roughly 3.5 m people who are mainly in the country. As much as 75% of outsourcing IT exports are to the US and Europe.

 

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

India has long relied on its domestic consumer base to insulate the economy from global issues that have tended to take a toll on export-oriented nations. However if India is to achieve its development goals, not least mobilising its massive young population in order to provide hundreds of millions of people a better wage, it has little choice but to foster a major manufacturing sector. Plans are in the works to achieve this long-term goal by attracting FDI with a proactive attitude, better terms of trade and improving infrastructure. Provided these plans are followed through on and will be supported by successive administrations there is every chance India can achieve its development potential. 

India in a nutshell: India is a large emerging market in terms of population and formal retail is still underpenetrated. E-Commerce spend today is mostly in online travel and future growth of B2C e-tail (physical goods) is likely to be driven by large, well-funded competitors who can speed up online adoption. The key risk is how quickly profitability arrives given the size of the market, the intensity of competition, and consumer behavior. Market estimates1 put the current and future size of the Indian e-commerce market at only 3% to 7% of Chinese levels, with significant upside through consumer adoption. 

Formal retail under-penetrated in India: Market estimates2 put the size of the Indian retail market at cUS$350bn, but formal retail at only 5% of that total.

E-commerce nascent but growing: Market estimates3 look for the overall ecommerce market to grow from US$22bn in 2014 to US$86bn in 2018 (40% CAGR). Within just B2C e-tail, estimates are for expansion from cUS$4bn in 2014 to cUS$18bn by 2018 (45% CAGR).

E-commerce to target the wealthier demographics: c60m households (c25% of the overall population) in India control c60% of retail spend in 2015E; these households are forecast to double in absolute numbers by 2025, with spending power to triple over the same period. Wealth concentration and limited broadband penetration (c11%) could potentially create a two-tier market: 1) wealthy cohorts, where online spend centers on consumer discretionary items (electronics, clothes, etc) and where the longer-term opportunity is in migrating their online spend to include consumer staples (diapers, consumables, food), and 2) the mass-market, where spend levels are likely to be lower but increasing mobile penetration, a lack of formal retail/alternatives, and sheer numbers could prove formidable over time.

Low internet penetration but high growth: Less than 20% of the population had internet access in 2013 (214m) but this figure looks set to grow to c500m by 2018 (c36%), driven by mobile internet penetration leapfrogging desktop5 

Market cap per internet user is low: In Western markets, the market cap for the e-commerce sector on a per internet user basis is nearly 15x that of India. The ratio is nearly as stretched even when compared with similar emerging markets such as APAC, where the e-commerce market cap on a per user basis is nearly 10x that of India. This indicates the huge opportunity left for ecommerce penetration and growth in India. As discussed, India has over 200m internet users but less than 10% of those users purchase online. In the next few years (and decades), more retail spend is likely to shift online, closing the gap with its global peers.

 

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

As China’s e-tail companies make large public splashes in the international markets, the question of where India’s online champions are is a relevant one. The country has a similar population size to China but its infrastructure and openness to foreign investment and joint ventures lags far behind its neighbour. Nevertheless as broadband access improves, smartphone penetration increases and online banking spreads the potential for online retailing to take off just as it has elsewhere is high. 

LNG prices in Japan, the world’s biggest buyer of the fuel, will probably plunge 35 percent in 2015 and Indian costs will decline 33 percent, according to Energy Aspects Ltd., a London- based consultant. Costs in Asia will this year average below $10 per million British thermal units for the first time in four years as new projects in Australia and the U.S. boost supply through 2016, Bloomberg New Energy Finance said.

Most LNG in Asia is linked to crude costs with a time lag of several months, so Brent’s 49 percent drop in the second half of 2014 hasn’t fully filtered into prices. Global demand for the gas chilled to minus 170 degrees Celsius (minus 274 Fahrenheit) will rise 9.8 percent this year amid increased imports by India and southeast Asia, after climbing 0.5 percent in the first nine months of 2014, according to Sanford C. Bernstein.

“We are already seeing, at current prices, renewed interest from Indian buyers,” Laurent Vivier, vice president for strategy and market analysis at Total Gas & Power, said Monday by e-mail. “There is some flexibility in the demand as well. When prices fall to current levels, it creates additional demand.”

 

Consumers have bemoaned the link between natural gas pricing and crude oil over the last decade but the pendulum has swung back in their favour over the last six months. As major energy importers without significant domestic supply Japan and India are major beneficiaries of the decline in oil prices. 

For Japan, the fall in oil prices gives the BoJ additional room to stimulate the economy while consumers will see they have additional cash. The Nikkei-225 continues to firm within its three-month range and a sustained move below 16,500 would be required to question medium-term potential for a successful reassertion of the medium-term uptrend. 

Improving economics and govt actions increase probability of ratings upgrade
We assign a high likelihood of a sovereign ratings upgrade for India as most macro indicators have exhibited improvements in past 2 years. A rating upgrade will likely entail multi-layered benefits for Indian economy and markets. Over the past decade we have witnessed 4 instances of rating upgrades by S&P and Moody’s and on an average Sensex has returned 9% in the following 6 months and 40% in the following 12 months of ratings upgrade. Boost to capital inflows and improved perception of India on the back of rating upgrade should help moderate volatility associated with US rate normalization and create some headroom for RBI to ease monetary stance.

India likely to remain one of the favored emerging markets
Expectations of normalization by the US Fed and a subdued commodity pricing environment will continue to drive multi-asset differentiation within Emerging markets. India's embrace of long pending, supply side reforms together with an investment driven macroeconomic stabilization will allow it to deepen its relative attractiveness in 2015. Among key EMs, India has demonstrated one of the best improvements on external front with CA deficit now in comfort zone at (2.1% in Sep’14 qtr. 4.7% in FY13), appreciable FX reserves accumulation and sharp uptick in capital inflows.

Government must ensure its economic agenda is not side tracked 
While the urgency in moving ahead on key ordinances is indicative of the commitment to reform, passing bills in parliament will be vital to ensure that reform is structural, enduring and getting institutionalized. Translation of many of the recent ordinances into law in the next session of parliament will be viewed as crucial determinants of the government’s execution prowess. Other risks: Faster- and steeper-than-anticipated Fed rate normalization and any systemic risk associated with steep decline in oil prices.

 

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

There are few countries that benefit more from weak oil prices than India so the recent energy market moves represent something of a windfall for Narendra Modi’s government.  This might yet allow the RBI to cut interest rates but the broader question is over how bold the administration will be in its legislative agenda. A great deal of enthusiasm has already been priced into the market and it will be interesting to see how much is delivered upon this year. 

With a large young upwardly mobile population India represents a fertile market for global Autonomies, a number of which maintain listed subsidiaries on the Munbai exchange. Many of these trade on aggressive multiples not least because supply is reasonably thin. 

Our country bank analysts have studied the financing of the local energy production chain in 12 Asian markets and in this report evaluate the risks arising from sharply falling global oil prices. For the oil production countries, namely Australia, Malaysia and China, bank lending is primarily extended to the state-owned or globally established MNCs engaging in E&P (Exploration and Production), with some of them engaging in diversified energy businesses; for example, gas, that can help offset part of the losses from falling oil prices. In Australia, banks have set aside economic overlays (3-6% of the exposure) to buffer against potential risks from the worsening asset quality of the mining and energy sectors.

Impact for banks financing refinery businesses and overseas projects
While the refinery businesses of the major oil importing countries (India and Thailand) should benefit from falling global oil prices, the banks have less than 1% of loans pledged to the related industries, implying limited positive earnings impact. For Asian banks, such as Japanese banks, that have financed overseas projects, the borrowers are primarily strong companies with limited default risks.

Indian, Indonesian and Chinese banks historically the best performers
Since 2006, we identified four periods of global oil prices falling by an average of 46% within six months and we observed that global equity indices have been negatively affected, with MSCI Asia-ex JP financial index underperforming the S&P Index by 2%, but outperforming the global MSCI EM index by 4.7%. The best performers were India (+19%), Indonesia (+8%) and China (+4%), while HSBC (-14.5%), Standard Chartered (-21%) and Korean banks (-16%) were the worst. This order of performance is consistent with our preference among Asian financials based on our fundamental analysis.

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

A number of Asian markets have been subject to some quite extreme volatility over the last couple of weeks as the impact of meaningfully low oil prices have shaken the status quo. 

The introduction of digital technologies (social, mobility, analytics and cloud)  heralds the start of a new decadal tech cycle, which could potentially lead to significant changes to the existing revenue streams of the Indian vendors.

We believe the Indian IT services industry could still report healthy growth rates over the long term. The IT services market is still fairly underpenetrated from an offshore standpoint (see Figure 10 and Figure 11) and we believe vendors need to follow a three-pronged strategy to gain share: 

1. Deepen existing relationships by achieving strategic vendor status 
2. Geographic and vertical expansion 
3. Capability enhancement to address the threat/opportunities from digital technologies

 

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

India’s service sector has been competing successfully on the world stage for more than a decade and was among the greatest beneficiaries of a weak Rupee. As the global outsourcing sector responds to growth in networked services/cloud computing there will be a requirement for more technically proficient staff but also potential for margin expansion given India’s increasingly well education work force.  

Hi David & Eoin, I wanted to get FTM thoughts and opinion on where the best investment returns could be had over the next 12 months and what would be the key things to watch for? Thanks for an excellent service 

Thank you for your kind words and your question. This is a topic we cover almost daily in the written commentary and the audio but it is a good time to summarise our views. 

Let’s ruminate for a moment though on the timing of your question. Generally speaking, the last six weeks of the year is given over to thinking about the possibility of a Santa Claus rally and people don’t generally look at the outlook for the next year until the last week of December or the first week of January. It made headlines during the week that Goldman Sachs had released its prognostication for the coming year, which may have prompted your email. However I believe it is worth considering that the stock market is a discounting mechanism and as a bull market progresses we tend to want to discount cash-flows from increasingly further into the future. It is a measure of how strong the market has been over the last month that investors are already planning for next year. Five consecutive weeks to the upside suggest some consolidation is increasingly likely.

The Modi administration’s policy initiatives clearly point to India embarking on an East Asian economic model. We expect the steel sector to be a direct beneficiary of the two most important elements of the East Asian model (1) the move to materials intensive growth from an aggressive focus on heavy infrastructure build out and revitalizing manufacturing, and (2) a conscious attempt to keep the currency weak. Importantly, India’s transition to materials intensive growth will coincide with a period of subdued raw material prices.

Our comprehensive 2020 analysis throws up three non consensus takeaways (1) Indian steel consumption growth to reach an inflection point of 15% YoY in FY18, (2) Domestic production will significantly lag consumption despite large expansions by incumbent companies. India to emerge as a large net importer of steel by FY18 with imports constituting 17% of total consumption by 2020, (3) iron ore imports should peak in FY15 at an historic high of 15.5mt. Abating regulatory headwinds over next 2 years should ensure that India not only remains self sufficient in iron ore but also reverts back to being a net exporter from FY16, though at far lower levels compared to its historical averages. Virtuous cycle of cash flow, profitability and balance sheet improvement

Our comprehensive 2020 analysis of steel stocks under coverage suggests (i) the combination of materials intensive growth, INR depreciation and a subdued raw material pricing outlook will expand RoEs (by 870bps to a sector average of 16.2%) and significantly improve cash flows of incumbent companies over the next 5 years resulting in material improvement in balance sheets which have been a key concern, (ii) we see compelling shareholder value creation over FY14-20 in SAIL, Tata Steel, and JSW Steel driven by volume growth, product mix improvement and balance sheet deleveraging. 

 

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

India has a large young population, with half of 1.25 billion people under 25. A challenge for the new administration will be to deliver upon the improving standards of living this 600 million strong demographic demands. That means jobs, education, infrastructure and consumer goods.  Achieving these goals will be a lot more difficult without infrastructure development and a much stronger manufacturing sector. Modi’s administration knows this as well as anyone which is why he has vocally called for reforms to promote both.  

Both China and India are now in a crucial stage of reform and development. The Chinese people are committed to realising the Chinese dream of great national renewal. We are deepening reform in all sectors. The goal has been set to improve and develop the socialist system with Chinese characteristics and advance the modernisation of national governance system and capability. A total of over 330 major reform measures covering 15 areas have been announced and their implementation is well underway.

Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership, the new Indian government has identified ten priority areas including providing a clean and efficient administration and improving infrastructure. It is committed to building a united, strong and modern India — Shreshtha Bharat. The Indian people are endeavouring to achieve their development targets for the new era. China and India are both faced with historic opportunities, and our respective dreams of national renewal are very much aligned with each other. We need to connect our development strategies more closely and jointly pursue our common dream of national strength and prosperity.

As emerging markets, each with its own strengths, we need to become closer development partners who draw upon each other’s strengths and work together for common development. With rich experience in infrastructure building and manufacturing, China is ready to contribute to India’s development in these areas. India is advanced in IT and pharmaceutical industries, and Indian companies are welcome to seek business opportunities in the Chinese market. The combination of the “world’s factory” and the “world’s back office” will produce the most competitive production base and the most attractive consumer market.

As the two engines of the Asian economy, we need to become cooperation partners spearheading growth. I believe that the combination of China’s energy plus India’s wisdom will release massive potential. We need to jointly develop the BCIM Economic Corridor, discuss the initiatives of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, and lead the sustainable growth of the Asian economy.

Ahead of Xi’s visit Chinese troops built a rudimentary road on the contested part of the India/China border and Indian troops destroyed it a day later. India boosted support for Vietnam, agreeing to export arms, the day before his visit. The above text is part of a charm offensive where both countries could benefit from greater bilateral trade, but no one is under any illusion about how much room there still is for relations to improve.   

 

A one-quarter drop in local gold prices over the past year has shaken the confidence of Indians in the precious metal as a store of value and dented demand in the world's second-biggest buyer.

The main beneficiary has been Indian stocks, which have been clocking up records on hopes that Prime Minister Narendra Modi can deliver on the promise of "better days" ahead that swept him to power in May's general election.

Beyond short-term sentiment, a major push by Modi for every household to get a bank account, better education and living standards, and falling inflation expectations, could herald a more secular change in investing habits.

"The attachment of Indians to gold will remain," said Harish Galipelli, head of commodities and currencies at Inditrade Derivatives and Commodities Ltd., referring to gold's culturally embedded role in dowry gifts or decorating Hindu temples.

"But as the banking network expands and literacy rises, people in rural areas will explore other investment products like mutual funds or bank deposits. The mindset is slowly changing."

 

One could argue that having gold as an anchor in a portfolio is justified given its long history as a store of value but favouring it above all other alternatives is generally a sign of distrust in the financial system and value of fiat currency. Indian consumers have had more to fear from currency debauchment than most; with the Rupee susceptible to regular devaluations since independence. However as optimism grows that Prime Minister Modi can deliver on progressively higher standards of living for India’s burgeoning population, it is an open question as to whether India will represent such a potent demand growth region for gold in future. 

Vedanta's planned group restructuring was completed in 2H13 calendar, with the court clearance of Sterlite's merger into Sesa Goa. This was an important step in simplifying the group's structure, reducing the scope for future conflict between majority and minority shareholders. Post the merger of Sterlite and Sesa, we see the group's buyout of the Indian government's stakes in HZL and Balco as critical for maximising cash fungibility across all group entities and expect progress on this in the next 12 months. Beyond this, management has set three near-term priorities for improvement for the group: an iron ore mining re-start, bauxite sourcing in India, and Copper Zambia development. We expect all of these areas to show improvement in 2015. Buy. 

Valuation 
Our price target is set at a 5% discount to our DCF valuation, to reflect some of  the inherent delivery risks within Vedanta's growth plan. Our DCF valuation (10.9% WACC - cost of equity 13%, post-tax cost of debt 6.1% and target gearing 30%: RFR 4.0%, ERP 6%)is calculated using life of mine cash flow analysis. 

Risks 
Key downside risks include lower metal prices than we expect, sustained strength in the Indian rupee, higher import duties, slower execution of projects and the slow or noreceipt of government permits for the alternative bauxite mines in Orissa and the Lanjigarh refinery expansion programme. The company has a large capex program which may require further debt funding or capital raising, either at the Sterlite or Vedanta level.

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

The new Indian administration under Narendra Modi has lofty ambitions. Urbanisation, export oriented manufacturing and chipping away at the country’s infrastructure deficit are all goals the new government is working towards. Greater per capita consumption of just about all industrial and energy commodities goes hand in hand with these objectives and India needs a concerted strategy for sourcing the resources it needs to fuel growth. 

So, what does the government need to do in order to get firms to invest again? The first and most obvious thing would be to finish the various stalled infrastructure projects. The capital invested in these projects can be made generate output. This will also help the banking system which has seen an increase in its non-performing loans as a consequence of the various delays. However, the longer term agenda would be to make it easier to do business in  India. The World Bank’s “Doing Business Report 2014” ranked India 134 out of 189 countries in terms of the ease of doing business. As one can see from the table below, it performs especially poorly in categories that involve interface with the government – paying taxes, construction permits and so on. The national government cannot resolve all the issues, but Prime Minister Modi’s election slogan of “Minimum Government, Maximum Governance” suggests that he is acutely aware of this issue and, given his administrative record, it is reasonable to expect significant improvement in this space.

While a generic improvement in the business climate would be welcome, Prime Minister Modi’s speeches and actions suggest a more specific economic model. As explicitly stated in the Independence Day speech, one component of his economic model is an emphasis on export oriented manufacturing. Notice that this is not about agnostic free markets but about creating competitiveness by investing in industry clusters. Another component is investment in heavy infrastructure ranging from power to railways. A third element is labour reforms. This is an area that previous government considered too politically sensitive but has already been opened up for reform by the NDA government both at the state and central level. These reforms are clearly a prelude to the mass deployment of labour. Finally, a repeated emphasis on building and expanding cities – urbanization being the spatial manifestation of industrialization. Not only are these elements internally consistent, they also look very much like the economic model used by East Asian countries to rapidly modernize themselves. In other words, for the first time since Nehru, we have a wide-ranging, internally consistent economic model. Moreover, this model follows a well-trodden path

Of course, we are not implying that agriculture and services will be simply ignored. Far from it, the new “investment” based approach will be applied to these sectors as well. Indeed, Narendra Modi’s political rise is partly due to his success in generating agricultural growth during his stint as Chief Minister of Gujarat. This is particularly remarkable given that Gujarat is a semi-desert state that is not naturally well-endowed with either good soil or plentiful water supply. Heavy investment in water management and new technology were responsible for the state’s success. At the national level, however, farm mechanization is only 25% while the productivity levels for rice and wheat have not increased significantly since the 1980s.An important change in the strategy of this government will be its openness to mechanization and new technology even in agriculture. This is consistent with the idea that the farm sector will have to produce more even as industry sucks out workers from it. The latest Economic Survey summarizes this approach as follows “Due to the significant and continuous reduction of agricultural workforce, higher levels of farm mechanization are necessary for sustaining productivity and profitability.” Of course, this will require a wider reform and liberalization of the sector.

A link to both reports is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

India represents a massive potential growth market for the resources sector which couldn’t come at a better time as China’s demand growth trajectory moderates. Following the path to development adopted by so many of its neighbours represents a ground breaking change of pace for India which could be transformational for the stock market if successfully implemented.

This additional report accompanying India 2020 highlights the primary stock market beneficiaries of this development. Fortunately a number of them maintain overseas listings.

Recent developments outlined above suggest that India is not now on the path to replace China in the system. But looking forward, the Modi government’s plan, if implemented, would reload India into the periphery of a Bretton Woods II system. The 2014 election manifesto of the Bharatiya Janata Party announced several economic goals. A country intending to push an export-driven development policy could hardly describe its policies and goals differently. In sum, the manifesto seems aimed at vigorously implementing this strategy. The manifesto espouses: “A strong manufacturing sector will…create millions of jobs and increase incomes for the working class. Above all, it will increase the revenue for the government and lead to import substitution to bring down the import bill. We will make India a hub for cost-competitive labour-intensive mass manufacturing. (p. 29).”

Specifically, the manifesto proposes several policy goals to boost labor-intensive manufacturing. The current account deficit is to be reduced aggressively by focusing on exports and reducing the dependency on imports (italics ours). A program for ports, roads and rail to the interior, and airports is intended to facilitate international merchandise trade by eliminating severe infrastructural barriers. It also intends to eliminate the artificial bureaucratic barriers to commerce. FDI will be allowed in most sectors, except retail, and investment and industrial regions are to be set up as international manufacturing hubs. 

Of course, a political party’s manifesto is a wish list. Full implementation always collides with resource and political constraints. But taking it at face value means that India is readying itself to take up China’s role as the next large periphery in the Revived Bretton Woods system. As we said in Section IV, the key to managing the export-driven strategy at a global macroeconomic scale is the recruitment of FDI. The amount of collateral on hand limits FDI, but a large and persistent current account surplus relaxes the limit. In India, the government is now opening the doors to more FDI; and simultaneously, it intends to reduce the current account deficit. Our caveat is that it cannot expect a China-like attraction of FDI unless it can swing the current account into surplus. The manifesto seems to aim for these conditions, but this is a case of wait-and-see for this next test of the collateral hypothesis.

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

If you have the time I would recommend reading this report in its entirety not least the portion beginning at the end of page 13 focusing on the role of China’s sanitation of currency inflows on the low interest rates that continue to prevail in the USA and Europe.

When we consider India’s role in the global economy, it has many of the characteristics China is seeking to develop and vice versa. India has a vibrant consumer economy, world class corporations successfully competing internationally, property rights, an independent judiciary and respect for minority shareholder interests. It also runs persistent twin deficits, its manufacturing sector is undeveloped, infrastructure has decayed to the point of obsolescence or does not exist, development planning has been haphazard to say the least, bureaucracy is sclerotic and corruption inhibits growth at every turn. 

India’s ‘actual’ competitive edge lies somewhere in between the REERs estimated by adjusting for ULC and PPI. The OECD’s estimate of ULC likely overstates the country’s competitiveness as the data may be skewed towards the more productive ‘organised’ sector. On the other hand, the PPI-based REER may understate competitiveness as it does not adequately capture productivity gains.

India has sharpened its relative advantage thanks to nominal currency depreciation and faster labour productivity growth and slower wage gains than in its trading partners. Meanwhile, producers have cut back on price increase to gain market share. 

It is one of the very few EMs where the decline in relative unit labour costs has been greater than nominal FX depreciation over the last decade, implying a chunky contribution to competitiveness. However, most of this improvement occurred before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). After the crisis, the rupee’s nominal decline outstripped that of ULCs on the back of a widening current account deficit. 

Domestic policy errors, poor progress on structural reforms and populist fiscal policies that drove wage growth above productivity growth are largely to blame. Indeed, India appears less competitive after adjusting for CPI (vs. for ULC and PPI), reflecting entrenched inflation expectations and supply-side bottlenecks.

 

India was not the only country to experience currency devaluation last year but the Rupee‘s was among the most aggressive; giving up 30% of its value between May and August. It has since steadied following the intervention of the RBI which suggests that the competitive advantage gained can be held onto. A similar condition is evident in a number of Asian countries. 

I have access to the USD INR in the charts. The charts are for the Indian Rupee (INR) trades off shore. The INR onshore which trades onshore has different and less exaggerated price movement. The INR is not a freely convertible currency as it is regulated by the central bank and hence an onshore chart is more relevant to traders who use the service onshore. Could you kindly share this information with Eoin so that he can consider our request?

Thank you for this informative email and question. I found a number of forwards for onshore Rupee rates on Bloomberg but could not find an onshore spot rate. If you can supply one I would be happy to add it to the Chart Library.

India's insurance business was full of promise when it was thrown open to competition in 2000, but has been hobbled by losses, regulatory change, uncertainty and a sharp slowdown in the economy.

The federal government's approval for a proposal to raise the limit to 49 percent has been kept pending for a long time due to opposition by nationalist politicians, frustrating many overseas investors lured by low penetration rates in India.

Life insurance penetration in India is about 3.2 percent of gross domestic product in terms of total premiums underwritten in a year, much lower than more than 10 percent in Japan and nearly 6 percent in Australia.

Dutch banking and insurance group ING Groep NV and New York Life have quit their Indian ventures in recent years, while some other foreign investors were said to be weighing their options.

At the end of Sept 2013, India had 24 life insurers, which accounts for 80 percent of the sector's business. Only 17 of the 24 reported profits in the fiscal year ended March 2013, according to latest data available with the regulator.

State-owned Life Insurance Corp of India Ltd controls about 70 percent of the life insurance business.

"This measure should provide impetus for spurring growth of the insurance industry and enable foreign players to bring in capital required for growing distribution (and) product suite," said Shashwat Sharma, partner at consultant KPMG.

 

India represents a potent market for western multinationals but has been a disappointing investment for a number of companies who failed to deal effectively with the bureaucratic quagmire, regulatory roadblocks to growth and depreciation of the Rupee. With a new administration and a greater potential share of the profits, internationally oriented companies may be re-enticed to consider India. 

Indians love Switzerland - over half a million visit each year. But Swiss delights are an expensive taste. Take Basel 3 capital norms. Meeting them requires a $40bn recapitalization of India's 26 public sector banks by 2018. But given fiscal constraints where to get the money? Yesterday's budget proposes issuing equity to dilute the government's stakes from a range of 55 to 80 per cent down to 51 per cent. Selling at today's prices however only raises a third of the capital required. Hence to maintain its majority shareholdings New Delhi would have to fork out another $15bn - the same amount spent in the past five years. Worse, India's banks are losing about 40 basis points off their core tier one capital ratios annually according to Deutsche Bank analysis. Recapitalising India's banks feels like running to stay in the same place

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

There are some important reasons to be bullish about India’s prospects now that it has a highly capable central bank governor, a market friendly prime minister with a substantial mandate for change, the regulatory changes imposed by the last government to cut bureaucracy as well as constants such as a vibrant consumer sector and powerful demographics. However, a market cannot underperform for such a long time without their being challenges to overcome. The relative health of the banking sector is one such hurdle.  

Over the past one year, marked improvement has been seen in India's macro-economic variables. GDP growth which had dwindled from 6%+ to less than 5% in a matter of 4 quarters, has bottomed out and has been stable at 4.5%]4.7% range in the past few quarters. RBI then was raising interest rates but has now maintained status quo for past two monetary policies indicating peaking out of interest rates. Inflation, which was mounting then, has now seen downward trajectory in the past few months, notwithstanding near term risk from weak monsoon. Fiscal and current account deficits have been well reigned in through measures such as curbs on gold imports and postponement of subsidies to next year. Rating agencies, a year ago, were considering a downgrade in rating for India with a negative outlook on the economy. The outlook for ratings has now been revised to stable. Currency, which was on a depreciating spree and had reached Rs68/US$, has now stabilized in a range of Rs58-61/US$.

With regards to investment cycle, steps were taken by the UPA government which shall fructify in the medium term. These steps include 1) setting up of CCI (Cabinet Committee on Investment) which has cleared bottlenecks of 210 projects worth more than Rs3.8tn across various sectors. 2) Around 85-90% of 173 FSAs have been signed; full completion would ensure fuel supply to 78,000 MW worth of power capacity. 3) Partial mining ban reversals. Furthermore, announcements from the new government have also been encouraging towards this space. With regards to the asset quality in the banking system, after a period of sustained uptrend in NPAs, Q4 FY14 results indicated stable trend.

 

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

This report highlights the fact that Mr. Modi represents a transformation in the ability of India to elect a strong, reform-minded government and emphasises the electorate’s demand for progress in standard of living improvements. It also highlights an important fact that a number of important reforms in the planning process were enacted by the last government which will ease the way for infrastructure investment in the next few years.  

The Mid-Cap sector lagged the wider market over the last few years but has experienced a powerful catch-up advance since early May. It is now closing in on the 2008 peak near 10,000. While some consolidation is looking increasingly likely, a break in the short-term progression of higher reaction lows would be required to signal a pause near that level. 

The RBI said further policy tightening won’t be warranted if consumer-price inflation stays on course to hit 8 percent in January 2015 and 6 percent a year later. If disinflation is faster than anticipated “it will provide headroom for an easing of the policy stance,” it said.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s landslide win last month is spurring optimism that he’ll take steps to reduce price pressures and lead a recovery among the world’s biggest emerging markets, which are forecast to grow at the slowest pace since 2009. India must move toward fiscal discipline to lower inflation, curb the budget deficit and spur growth, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said on June 1.

“The RBI extended a welcoming hand to the new Prime Minister,” Frederic Neumann, an economist at HSBC in Hong Kong, wrote in a research report today. “That the RBI remained on hold so soon after the election wasn’t really a surprise. But its dovish tone was.”

 

Much of India’s problem with tempering persistently high inflation are structural in nature. One of the most productive agenda’s the new government could set would be to aggressively tackle regulatory, bureaucratic and infrastructure related obstacles to trade and investment. Considering Mr.Modi’s record in Gujarat, investors have good reason to give him the benefit of the doubt. 

“I noticed that a few of the Indian investment trusts seem to be lagging the market (JPII-close to 13% discount to NAV; New India -14%). Any thoughts?”

And 

“Just saw comment of day-sorry. More specifically-should we expect the ITs to lag the underlying as they are doing (far off from their all-time highs), or is there something in the ITs themselves that would result in such a lag. Thanks”

 

Thank you for this question which may be of interest to subscribers. The value of investment trusts is often influenced by fashion rather than the book value of the assets they hold. Over the last few years, the perception of the Indian government’s ability to tackle structural issues deteriorated considerably. If we recall why India has made headlines over the last few years, we can quickly get a picture for why investment trusts are trading at discounts. 

Falling trend in GDP, investment and co. earnings growth to reverse during 2014, CLSA says in investor note dated yesterday.

Policy environment started improving since last 15 mos.,

2014 will see positive impact, analysts Mahesh Nandurkar, Abhinav Sinha and Rohit Kadam write

Investors to position much in advance for improvement even as it will be visible in 2H of 2014 and fiscal yr 2015

CLSA sees market ¡°developing patience¡± towards companies benefiting from recovery

Recommend cyclicals such as Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, Maruti Suzuki, UltraTech, power utilities, mid-cap property stocks HCL Tech, ITC, Lupin and Zee Entertainment are other buy ideas

CLSA underweight on staples, retail financials

 

2014 is going to be a big year for India as the prospect of a reform-minded prime minister, with a track record of delivering on economic growth, is priced in. However, while this would be a heartening development for investors who have been waiting for a bullish catalyst, the success of the RBI in defending the Rupee is likely to be no less important.

Indian democracy took a turn toward ancient Athens this week after the Aam Aadmi Party (“Common Man’s Party”) went to the people a second time in an attempt to resolve a political dilemma. The fledgling political outfit that earlier this month won 30 percent of the vote and 40 percent of the seats in elections in the city-state of Delhi brought up the notion of “direct democracy” in defense of its decision to hold a referendum in Delhi on the question of whether it should make a bid to form a minority government in the capital.

In its manifesto, the AAP has borrowed from Brazil’s Porto Alegre model of local government by popular consent. This makes it appear all of a sudden that the world’s emerging markets are also emerging as the sites of new developments in democratic thought and practice -- as indeed in the practice of authoritarianism and capitalism. New energies in India and Brazil are reworking forms of representative government that have settled into stasis in the developed world. (It has always been a conceit of the West that its own experience of democracy is somehow foundational and normative, when the reality might be instead that democracy moves in historically and culturally specific directions wherever it takes root.)

The referendum itself was a double-pronged affair involving a range of traditional and 21st-century forms. It offered the citizens of Delhi the option of going to a set of public meetings that would return a single “yes” or “no” answer by popular vote, or of sending in their answers by text message or on by phone. Some skeptics questioned, in my view wisely, the wisdom of such a referendum and the claim of “the will of the people” established by its results. After all, those who had voted for the AAP might be logically expected to be more willing than others to participate in such an exercise and to favor a yes.

And so it turned out, with the party declaring a 75 percent yes vote from individual respondents and a 90 percent yes vote from 280 public meetings. After the referendum, the party’s high command decided Dec. 23 to form the new government of Delhi. Its leader, the 45-year-old former bureaucrat and anti-corruption activistArvind Kejriwal, will take the oath as Delhi’s seventh and youngest-ever chief minister on Saturday at the Ramlila Maidan, a site closely associated with the party’s concerted struggle over the last few years for an anti-corruption watchdog for India.

India’s general election within six months will be hugely important for the country’s development and also for subscribers who have investments in Indian shares.  

Despite the sharply slowing economy there are many success stories. One of them is unlisted company, Micromax. It has become India's No. 2 smart phone brand in just five years after selling its first handset. It started in business selling a cheap $ 30 made-in-China mobile phone. It is now on track to cross $ 1 bn in sales for the year to 31 March 2014. Micromax built up its business by selling basic and cheap handsets in a very price sensitive market among the masses. It was able to gain rapid market share by introducing a cheap model which could take two SIM cards. Hence, users could take advantage of bargains from competing mobile line providers. It has "moved up the ladder" by selling smart phones starting at just $50. This is almost half the price of a comparable Samsung. About 250 mn handsets are sold annually in India, about a fifth of which are smart phones. Among all types of mobile phones, Micromax ranks third after Nokia and Samsung. The company now wants to tap overseas markets like Russia and Romania.

For an underdeveloped economy, India is not short of corporate successes.  Just imagine what will happen when it gets good, economically savvy governance?  That may happen six months from now.

The report quoted above is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

The biggest win, however, was for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) which was born only a year ago out of an anti-corruption movement. It shocked both the main parties by winning a close second place in Delhi with 28 seats. This is not far behind BJP's win of 32 seats. The AAP is led by a mild-mannered former civil servant, Arvind Kejriwal. His aim is to end the grip of the two largest parties, Congress and BJP, on Indian politics. And, in the process clean up the rotten elements of Indian politics. Kejriwal was fighting the current Congress Chief Minister, Mrs Sheila Dixit, in her own constituency. He won more votes than Mrs Dixit and Congress combined. The challenge ahead for the AAP is to grow the movement nationally in time for national elections. Even though it has 309 committees across 22 out of 28 states in India this is a tall task. Kejriwal promises transparent political funding in a country where funding for parties often comes from dubious sources. And where parties have offered populist policies in the past to secure votes. One internal survey ahead of the Delhi elections found about a third of the party's supporters wanting Modi as Prime Minister. If the AAP, at national elections, is able to continue its current success, it may become an important voice in any coalition. With its strong anti-corruption stance, it would mark an interesting phase in Indian coalition politics.

Could Modi, if elected Prime Minister at the general elections, be a "game changer" for the Indian economy and markets? Very possibly. In the short run, BJP's win is positive for the market. The SENSEX closed at another new all-time high today of 21, 327, and the Indian Rupee touched a four-month high. This marks an astonishing turnaround compared to June-August when India seemed trapped in its worst economic crisis since 1991. Foreign investors abandoned Indian markets. This led to steep falls in the stock markets and the Indian Rupee. So far in 2013 FIIs have invested $ 18.1 bn, the third highest ever in the 20 years they have been allowed to invest in Indian shares. Not bad, considering 2013's plethora of bad news.

 

Governance Is Everything, as this service has emphasised over the decades, not least for emerging markets.  The return of the BJP now that it is led by Narendra Modi, plus the rise of the AAP in little over a year, not to mention the ruling Congress Party’s decline, demonstrate the anger and frustration of Indians over corruption, inflation and slumping GDP growth in recent years.  The political turnaround after many years of apathy and resignation is nothing short of breathtaking.  

Narendra Modi, 63, BJP's PM candidate has portrayed himself as a "man of the people", rising from humble roots. He wishes to appeal to masses, especially the crucial rural vote of 600+ million. His father was a tea vendor or "chai wallah". He is Chief Minister of Gujarat since 2001. He has promised quick reforms and an early end to policy paralysis that has contributed to the sharp economic slowdown. Modi is widely seen as a business-friendly reformer who has attracted major investments to Gujarat. And boosted economic growth along with badly needed jobs. Modi's political campaign focuses on Congress' failure to control inflation (especially high food prices which hurt the poor), the sharply decelerating economy which touched a decade-low last year, a lack of job creation and poor governance. He urges people to dream of a better future. However, nationally Modi remains a divisive figure tarnished by riots 11 years ago. He strenuously denies failing to stop the violence, and a Supreme Court inquiry found no evidence to prosecute him.

In 2014, I suspect far more Indian voters will be more interested in what Mr Modi’s economic policies have done for Gujarat - an average of 10% per annum GDP growth – than the unfortunate riots of 11 years ago.

India’s benchmark stock index will climb as much as 6 percent to a record by year-end if state election results this weekend confirm gains by the nation’s main opposition party, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Victories by the Bharatiya Janata Party in four of five states that held elections over the past month, a prelude to national voting next year, would send the S&P BSE Sensex index to almost 22,200 from its closing level of 20,957.81 yesterday, according to the average of 10 estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

An exit poll Dec. 4 signaled the BJP, which picked Narendra Modi as its choice for prime minister, will win four states.

Modi’s home state of Gujarat has recorded annual economic growth of 10 percent, lured investments by companies from Ford Motor Co. to the Tata Group and raised power generation capacity more than fivefold since he became chief minister in 2001.

India’s economy posted its slowest growth in a decade last year and suffered its worst power crisis in July 2012, eroding investor confidence in the leadership of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s Congress party.

“Investors are extrapolating what Modi did in Gujarat, betting he will be able to replicate that at the national level,” Paras Bothra, vice president for equity research at Ashika Stock Broking Ltd., said in an interview yesterday.

Narendra Modi is benefiting from India’s declining GDP growth and the corruption charges levelled at the Congress Party.  Nevertheless, Modi’s economic record of 10 percent GDP growth per annum since he became Chief Minister in 2001 is exceptionally impressive, as is the fivefold increase in power generation capacity mentioned above. 

 It is difficult to envisage that performance being replicated across India’s widely diversified states if Modi is elected as Prime Minister next year.  Nevertheless, it is a welcoming message for many Indians, not least educated younger voters.  

India's main opposition party is set to win four of five state elections held over the past month, wresting power from the ruling Congress party in one area and giving it momentum ahead of national voting next year.

The Bharatiya Janata Party, which picked Narendra Modi as its choice for prime minister, is set to retain two states, take power from Congress in another and win the most seats in the capital New Delhi, according to an exit poll yesterday conducted by C-Voter and broadcast on the Times Now television channel. Official vote counting in the states, home to about a sixth of India's 1.2 billion people, will take place on Dec. 8.

"The exit poll results indicate there is strong anger against Congress for its failure to check price rises and corruption," said Satish Misra, a political analyst at the Observer Research Foundation, a policy group based in New Delhi. "It seems this trend will be reflected in the general elections, and the BJP will have some edge over Congress."

The state elections are the final test for India's two major parties before a national vote that must be held by May 2014. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's Congress-led coalition has seen corruption scandals, elevated consumer inflation and the weakest economic growth in a decade erode its popularity.

BJP victories in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and New Delhi may boost Indian stocks, according to Deven Choksey, managing director of Mumbai-based K.R. Choksey Shares & Securities Pvt. The benchmark S&P BSE Sensex, which has climbed 6.6 percent this year, fell 0.7 percent in Mumbai yesterday.

I have been writing about Narendra Modi and India's important General Election for several months but these state elections are the clearest confirmation of his growing support. The BJP will be re-energised by this result which is certainly a wake-up call for Congress.

What might a General Election victory by Narendra Modi mean for India and its stock market (weekly 10-Yr & weekly 5-Yr)?

The Indian economy grew at 5%, a decade low, for the fiscal year to 31 March 2013. Growth slowed even further to 4.4% in Q1 (April-June 2013) of the current fiscal year to 31 March 2014. The Q2 (July-September) GDP figure is expected on 29 November, and fears remain that growth back to 5% looks optimistic. Investors are increasingly concerned that India is stuck in a stagflation (stagnant growth + high inflation) environment. The wholesale price index (WPI) rose to an eight-month high of 7% year-on-year, driven by more expensive energy and manufactured goods. At the heart of India's inflationary pressure is a sharp rise in food prices which are threatening re-election prospects for the ruling coalition Government, led by the Congress party. Food inflation in October rose 18.2%. In the last 60 months food inflation has averaged over 12% per month. Onion prices have risen from Rs 20 per kilo last December to Rs 100 per kilo last month in Delhi and Bombay. The price of salt has rocketed in East India from about Rs 18 per kilo to well over Rs 100 per kilo. With five state elections in progress, the humble onion's power in toppling past Governments is focussing minds.

To state the obvious, governance has never been easy in India's, large and ethnically diverse country. Its coalition governments have been weak and consequently beholden to minority factions. Nevertheless, the Congress Party appointed an impressive Reserve Bank of India Governor, Raghuram Rajan, in September.

India's Sensex Index (weekly & daily) falls back as the rupee (weekly & daily) weakens again, risking higher inflation and interest rates. Historic resistance above 21000 has turned back the stock market rally and underlying trading will be tested unless the Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan can once again turn back the rupee's slide, shown inversely above against the US dollar.

The RBI has said that it faces an unenviable task of trying to address the slowest economic expansion in a decade while tackling the fastest price gains among the largest emerging markets. Local newspapers have reported scuffles at vegetable markets in eastern India and food inflation is set to dominate state elections being held through Dec. 4. High onion prices were cited for the Bharatiya Janata Party losing a 1998 vote in New Delhi.

°We do not see any scope for rate cuts, said Leif Eskesen, HSBC Holdings Plcs chief economist for India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Underlying inflation pressures are rising. The RBI has to maintain a hawkish stance and stand ready to tighten further, if needed.

Food articles, including fruits, vegetables, milk and eggs, accounted for 47 percent of the increase in the benchmark inflation gauge, the wholesale price index. The measure rose 7 percent in October from a year earlier, compared with 6.48 percent the month before and exceeding the 6.95 percent median estimate of 40 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Combating inflation has been an intractable task for India not least because so many of the contributing factors are structural rather than monetary. Food price inflation could be moderated by introducing a modern supply chain from farm to table. However, this is no simply task and will require commitment from government to introduce the necessary infrastructure and reform of the retail sector. In the meantime, the RBI has the twin concerns of fortifying the Rupee and maintaining an interest policy which tempers inflation without suppressing growth.