Eoin Treacy's view -
Second-quarter gross domestic product advanced by 0.3% from the previous three months after shrinking and stagnating in the two earlier periods, according to Eurostat data published Monday. A Bloomberg survey of economists saw an increase of 0.2%.
A separate release showed consumer prices rose 5.3% from a year ago in July, as expected. But in a sign of lingering dangers, the closely watched underlying inflation measure that excludes volatile costs like food and energy overshot estimates by a touch to stay at 5.5%, surpassing the headline gauge for the first time since 2021.
German bonds stayed lower after the data, leaving the yield on two-year debt — among the most sensitive to changes in monetary policy — two basis points higher at 3.07%. Money markets maintained odds of about 70% on a further quarter-point rate increase by year-end.
While the euro zone’s GDP number looks encouraging, it was buoyed by a bumper three months from Ireland, which expanded by 3.3%. The country comprised less than 4% of the bloc’s overall output last year, and contributed about 0.1 percentage point to second-quarter growth.
Ireland is a small economy so when its performance is enough to move the entire economic outlook for the Eurozone its more about the strength of the mega-caps headquartered there than a broad-based rebound. The big jump in Boeing orders last months, which skewed capital goods orders for the USA, was probably a better indicator of Eurozone resilience.
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