Electricity prices across Europe are set to fall below zero this weekend as the continent experiences a
surge of summer winds combined with the peak season for solar generation.

The sub-zero prices are a preview of what’s to come for European power markets if a flood of planned renewable power production isn’t met with a shift in demand. The hope is that eventually larger electric car fleets, smarter grids and better battery technology will catch up, but for now the mismatch is a headache for policy makers and companies. 

The risk is that a prolonged slump in prices could undermine the case for future investments, add costs for consumers and waste energy that could be used to cut demand for polluting alternatives.

Eoin Treacy's view

At the same time that record high temperatures are being posted across southern Europe, one would think that record high renewable energy production would be greeted as a serious benefit. Now, if someone could prevail on countries to invest that excess power in air conditioning, they would have a lot less to worry about. Instead people could enjoy the summer heat and regional economies would be more productive.

European gas prices have made the full round trip to test the upper side of the underlying range following the pandemic spike. There is clear scope for additional weakness as growth expectations ebb and electricity supply from alternative sources increases.  

The Europe STOXX 600 has been trading with a mild downward bias over the last month but is still trading above the 200-day MA. A sustained move below the trend mean would be required to question the consistency of the medium-term recovery.