One of the questions subscribers as most often is how to find details of my open trades. To make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change.

A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

Some of the topics discussed include: downside key reversals for the Dow and S&P, Nasdaq 3% lower, oil firm, copper rolling over, Dollar firm, emerging currencies weak, Renminbi downside key reversal, H-Shares relative strength for now, 

Concerns about company margins have been in focus as stock prices have slid this year. Another major US corporation is reporting a miss, which may add to anxiety about the upcoming earnings season.

Nike’s fourth-quarter gross margin trailed estimates, with an 80 basis-point drop from the prior year, due to what the firm said were higher inventory “obsolescence reserves” in China, along with elevated freight and logistics costs. Production issues amid Covid shutdowns have been resolved, but shipping logjams are still an issue, boosting inventory as many items were stuck in transit.

Earlier this month, bellwether national supermarket chain Kroger also reported a profit-margin miss, because of some price cuts and higher supply-chain costs. That was exactly the combination of factors that’s been a source of worry about corporate profitability.

Nike shares initially popped in postmarket trading, but pared some gains. Watch for more from the company on its 5pm conference call. Meantime, big banks, like JPMorgan, BofA and Morgan Stanley, are announcing their shareholder payout plans in the wake of the Fed’s stress tests; shares were mixed with JPM dipping slightly.

Nike is another company dealing with high inventory levels. That’s stranded capital until the excess levels are worked off. Given the seasonal nature of many product lines and the industry practice of bringing out new designs on a regular basis, there is a clear scope that significant discounting will be required to clear stock levels. That’s good news for consumers, less so for Nike.

In an attempt to enable a compromise, Germany proposed adding in a non-binding part of the car emissions law a call on the commission to propose registering after 2035 vehicles running exclusively on carbon-neutral fuels. The addition is important to Germany and can be a bridge for the overall discussion, said Environment Minister Steffi Lemke. 

“We need a strong and fast CO2 reduction, but we need to keep openness on technologies,” she told the ministers. “We hope that this addition, which is important to the German government, hopefully this is agreeable and which can enable us to reach a joint acceptable solution.”

As a major energy importer the EU has a clear incentive to reduce dependence on imported fuels. That’s well understood. The other side of that argument is Russia is clearly of the opinion that if the EU does not wish to buy its exports, it will find customers that do.

The Indian rupee, which fell to a record low of 78.79 on Tuesday, may draw support from the rolling of over of nearly $2 billion in currency futures, positioning in the derivatives segment show, apart from central bank intervention.

The outstanding position in dollar/rupee futures contracts due to expire on June 28, have fallen by nearly $1.4 billion between Monday and Tuesday, while open positions maturing on July 27 have jumped by roughly $2 billion to $5.8 billion during the same period.

India’s monetary authority has been intervening across markets in recent months to defend the local currency with some analysts expecting it to weaken past 81 per dollar by year-end. The RBI has about $590 billion of forex reserves, after it ballooned to a record high of over $640 billion in September last year.

The Rupee might be short-term oversold but it is trending lower. This has been a significant breakdown and suggests the surprises will be on the downside even if in the short-term there is scope for a bounce.

A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

Some of the topic discussed include: China outperforming as Xi commits to hitting growth targets, Australia rebounds impressively following Wall Street on Friday, oil and gas extend gains, gold eases, copper pauses, bond yield firm. 

Adding to a growing number of market participants turning more positive on Chinese shares, abrdn plc’s regional chairman Hugh Young said they look to be the best home for fresh money in Asia amid a tough investment environment.

“We are inclined to put more money into China again, depends on the portfolio,” Young said in an interview on Monday, adding that the firm underweights the country’s shares in portfolios. “It’s very hard to be super bullish about anything at the moment” but valuations in China are reasonable and the investing landscape could improve.

Deutsche Bank AG’s private bank global chief investment officer Christian Nolting said last week he was considering turning overweight on Chinese stocks and Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Jefferies Financial Group all ramped up bullish commentary this month.

Xi Jinping’s statement that China will hit its growth target has been greeted with enthusiasm by investors. While COVID zero represents a challenge for growth, it increases the potential more liquidity will be made available. At present concerns about further inflating asset bubbles are on being downplayed.

Playing Into a Number of Pertinent Thematics: The global push for energy independence following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has provided a tailwind for uranium expectations, as nuclear build-outs are back in vogue. The role of uranium, and wider nuclear technology, in a low-carbon global economy is becoming ever clearer and is driving significant research and development into the next generation of technologies, just as happened with solar power around 2010. Given this pathway, we believe the uranium price will ultimately have to rise to necessary levels to stimulate the increased production required to match growing demand needs; hence, we have increased out L/T price to US$58/lb, from US$50/lb. Furthermore, government strategy in the U.S., potential Chinese exports of the Hualong reactor technology and development of small modular reactors (SMRs) all have potential to see demand surprise on the upside relative to our base case.

Sprott’s decision to enter the uranium market as a major buyer resulted in a major breakout in September 2021. The price quickly jumped from $11 to $20. Since then it has returned to unwind most of that advance.

Presently, the US is decreasing its artillery ammunition stockpiles. In 2020, artillery ammunition purchases decreased by 36% to $425 million. In 2022, the plan is to reduce expenditure on 155mm artillery rounds to $174 million. This is equivalent to 75,357 M795 basic ‘dumb’ rounds for regular artillery, 1,400 XM1113 rounds for the M777, and 1,046 XM1113 rounds for Extended Round Artillery Cannons. Finally, there are $75 million dedicated for Excalibur precision-guided munitions that costs $176K per round, thus totaling 426 rounds. In short, US annual artillery production would at best only last for 10 days to two weeks of combat in Ukraine. If the initial estimate of Russian shells fired is over by 50%, it would only extend the artillery supplied for three weeks.

And

The war in Ukraine demonstrates that war between peer or near-peer adversaries demands the existence of a technically advanced, mass scale, industrial-age production capability. The Russian onslaught consumes ammunition at rates that massively exceed US forecasts and ammunition production. For the US to act as the arsenal of democracy in defence of Ukraine, there must be a major look at the manner and the scale at which the US organises its industrial base. This situation is especially critical because behind the Russian invasion stands the world’s manufacturing capital – China. As the US begins to expend more and more of its stockpiles to keep Ukraine in the war, China has yet to provide any meaningful military assistance to Russia. The West must assume that China will not allow Russia to be defeated, especially due to a lack of ammunition. If competition between autocracies and democracies has really entered a military phase, then the arsenal of democracy must first radically improve its approach to the production of materiel in wartime.

China’s stated aim is to “reunite” with Taiwan politically by whatever means are necessary. This article from Taiwan News, focusing on the Koumintang’s (pro-unity party) recent stated pro-US stance may be of interest. 

A link to this week's Big Picture Long-Term video is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

There was one necessary condition underlying the bond market’s ability to shrug off the worst inflation numbers in a generation after only a week; nobody is really sure if they believe the Fed. Credibility is vital to central banks, and I argued for Businessweek on Thursday that it is indeed as important an anchor to the monetary system as gold used to be. A round trip like this showed extreme hesitance to accept the Fed’s guidance; arguably, the currency of its forward guidance has been adulterated.

That said, the Fed can’t have lost all credibility. The rebound in bond yields started Thursday morning as Jerome Powell began taking his second day of questions from Congress. Unlike on Wednesday, he said that his commitment to get inflation back down to 2% was “unconditional.” That, like many central banking pronouncements in the past, had an effect. But it's still concerning that the Fed needs to be more shrill to get its message across; it does look as the coinage of forward guidance is being debased:

Meanwhile, a telling indicator of how far sentiment has swung back toward bracing for a (disinflationary) recession comes from inflation breakevens. German inflation expectations have receded after a dramatic surge over the last 12 months, although they still remain higher than they were at the beginning of the year. The same is not true of US breakevens for average inflation over the next 10 years, and for the five years starting five years hence. Both are now lower than they were in May last year — an extraordinary fact given the extent of the inflationary shock since then, and the new geopolitical drivers for inflation that have arisen this year. If you’re convinced that much higher rates of inflation are on the way, along with higher interest rates to combat them, then the market is still making it very cheap for you to bet on that outcome

There is talk of the ECB raising rates in July, but Europe is already in a recession and Germany is fearful Russia will stop natural gas exports through the original Nordstream pipeline altogether. Against that background the ensuing economic contraction would make the case for interest rate hikes moot.

The EV battery problem is now serious enough that Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe recently warned that 90% to 95% of the battery supply chain “does not exist.” And Tesla CEO Elon Musk cautions that prices for lithium have already “gone to insane levels.” 

China is the world’s leader in EV battery production—with over 12 times the output of the United States. CPA’s research found that both China and Europe will continue to outpace the U.S. in EV battery production. By 2025, China will account for 56% of global battery production; the U.S. will account for just 19%.

Right now, much of the U.S. auto industry relies on foreign-owned battery technology—and focuses mainly on final assembly of batteries instead of the more complex challenge of designing and producing battery components. This contributes only a relatively small share of the value of overall battery manufacturing. Instead, America’s EV manufacturers need to jump into technical design, including innovation, intellectual property, and the materials science of battery component manufacturing—not just the assembly.

The irony is that most of the battery materials, from copper to nickel and lithium are mined in the Americas. Nevertheless, China successfully secured the resources due to an unerring commitment to ensure it has what it needs to further economic development. Maintaining that focus is probably easier for an energy importer than an exporter. National priorities tend to be shaped by domestic factors. One thing is for certain, without access to critical materials battery factories will be idle. The bear market in nickel and copper should ameliorate that situation.  

The Biden administration is considering triggering tougher anti-smog requirements that could curb drilling across parts of the Permian Basin, the world’s biggest oil field that straddles Texas and New Mexico.

The Environmental Protection Agency is weighing labeling parts of the Permian Basin as violating federal air quality standards for ozone -- a designation that would force state regulators to develop plans for cracking down on that smog-forming pollution. The move, outlined in a regulatory notice, could spur new permitting requirements and scrutiny of drilling operations.

Ozone levels in the basin have surpassed a federal standard “for the last several years -- really since the fracking boom took off in the Permian,” said Jeremy Nichols, climate and energy program director for WildEarth Guardians. The conservation group formally petitioned EPA for the so-called non-attainment designation in March 2021 and, roughly six months later, warned the agency it intended to sue to force action. The designation “basically says you’ve got to clean up this mess or the consequences are going to get even more severe as far as restricting your ability to permit more pollution and more development,” he said. 

While Texas does not have monitors taking ozone readings on its side of the Permian, monitors just over the border in the Eddy and Lea counties of New Mexico have recorded average ground-level ozone levels exceeding the 2015 standard of 70 parts per billion several years running. Even at low levels, ozone can worsen asthma, emphysema and other respiratory illnesses.

If the region is deemed in violation, state regulators would have three years to develop plans for lowering ozone levels, including by preventing new industrial facilities from worsening air quality and ensuring existing sites deploy technology to keep pollution at bay.

The resulting uncertainty could constrain energy development in the region, said Todd Staples, president of the Texas Oil and Gas Association. “Creating uncertainty on permitting and inserting unnecessary regulatory barriers will only negatively impact the production necessary to meet the needs of consumers."

This a good example of how the trend of environmental legislation is an inhibiting factor to the continued supply growth of conventional fossil fuels like oil and gas. It appears unlikely the Biden administration will intervene to avoid intervention that could deter production.

A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

Some of the topics discussed include: copper extends breakdown with battery metals, stocks stable, bonds rebound, Dollar pauses, Powell mentions Fed balance sheet to contract by $2 to $3 trillion which suggests the end of tightening is not imminent.  

The European Central Bank’s Isabel Schnabel started it. In February she flashed a chart showing how much the euro had weakened against the US dollar. Two months later, the Bank of Canada’s Tiff Macklem bemoaned the decline of the Canadian dollar. Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan suggested he’d like to see a stronger franc. The US dollar had been soaring—now up 7% for the year—as the Federal Reserve prepared to aggressively combat inflation.

And so one by one, central bankers elsewhere, just as desperate to tame the relentless march of inflation in their own backyards, began sending not-so-subtle signals that they would for once welcome a stronger currency—which helps reduce the cost of imports by boosting buying power abroad. It’s a form of intervention so rare that their jawboning alone moved markets.

On June 16, two of them upped the ante: Switzerland surprised traders with the first rate increase since 2007, sending the franc soaring to its highest level in seven years. Hours later, the Bank of England announced its own rate increase and signaled bigger hikes to come

Competitive currency appreciation a viable defense against inflation. A stronger currency makes imports less expensive but also depresses the competitiveness of domestic export-oriented businesses. In the last week Norway raised by 0.5%, the Czech Republic by 1.25%, UK by 0.25%, Switzerland by 0.5%, USA by 0.75% and Brazil by 0.5%. The ECB appears likely to raised by 0.25% in July. Here is a link to global-rates.com which carries a useful monitor for short-term rate movements. 

“If this minus gets so big that they can’t carry it anymore, the whole market is in danger of collapsing at some point,” Habeck said at a news conference in Berlin that was called at short notice. “So a Lehman effect in the energy system.”

Europe’s largest economy faces the unprecedented prospect of businesses and consumers running out of power. For months, Russian President Vladimir Putinhas gradually reduced supplies in apparent retaliation over sanctions imposed over the invasion of Ukraine. The standoff escalated last week after steep cuts to the main gas link to Germany, putting reserves for the winter at risk.

The heightened alert tightens monitoring of the market, and some coal-fired power plants will be reactivated. At the current rate of gas inflows, Germany would need 116 days to reach its target to fill 90% of storage capacity, which would mean it would take until mid-October to do so -- a time of year that households would usually start consuming more gas for heating.

Germany had to nationalise the regional banks during the credit crisis, and they are still under state control. It is increasingly likely that at least part of the German natural gas business is going to be nationalised. That might well be necessary to smooth the potential for rolling blackouts for consumers and businesses this winter.

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. unveiled an electric-car battery it said has a range of over 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) on a single charge and is 13% more powerful than one planned by Tesla Inc., a major customer. 

CATL, as the world’s biggest maker of electric-car batteries is known, will start manufacturing the next-generation “Qilin” next year, according to a video the Chinese company streamed online Thursday. The battery charges faster than existing cells, and is safer and more durable, CATL said. 

The Qilin battery, named after a mythical Chinese creature, has an energy density of up to 255 watt-hour per kilogram, Ningde, Fujian-based CATL said. 

“It’s an important advancement for CATL as it keeps them at the forefront on the innovation side,” said Tu Le, managing director of Beijing-based consultancy Sino Auto Insights. “Being the lowest cost provider isn’t enough to command loyalty, there needs to be more to it -- and that seems to be the Qilin battery for CATL.”

CATL’s shares climbed 5.9% in Shenzhen, closing at the highest since Feb. 9. 

The company said Wednesday it raised 45 billion yuan ($6.7 billion) in a private placement of shares, with the proceeds intended for production and upgrade of lithium-ion battery manufacturing in four Chinese cities, as well as research and development.

CATL has experienced a wave of volatility this year, grappling soaring prices of raw materials as well as rumors of trading losses. Its first-quarter net income slid 24% from a year earlier to 1.49 billion yuan. The company hasn’t explained a 1.79 billion yuan derivatives liability, the first such charge since it listed.

The massive run-up in battery metal prices has put significant pressure on companies dependent on buying them to support their businesses. Lithium, copper, cobalt and nickel prices have surged this year as projections for future demand and low available supply created an inelastic trading environment. That created problems for nickel traders which resulted in a short covering price spike and lithium prices also surged to previously unimaginable levels.

A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

Some of the topics discussed include: copper and nickel break lower, cyclicals now underperforming, Treasury yields contract, Dollar eases, gold steady, Wall Street bounces but fails to hold intraday highs, market continues to price in recession risk.  

President Joe Biden will ask Congress to suspend the federal gasoline tax for three months, after his administration’s previous efforts failed to curb soaring pump prices that weigh heavily on his party’s political fortunes.

Biden will call for a pause in tax collections through September in a speech scheduled for 2 p.m. Wednesday in Washington, senior administration officials said. The national average gasoline price hit a record this month above $5 a gallon, even after Biden ordered a historic release from US reserves earlier this year.

Any pause, however, is fraught with contradiction. Lowering the price of gasoline may spur demand, potentially exacerbating supply imbalances already roiling markets. Biden entered office describing climate change as an existential threat and pledging to scale back US drilling; he’s now calling for measures to make fossil fuels less expensive, while all but begging oil companies to boost production and refining.

And it’s unlikely Congress will heed the president’s request, as many Democrats have concerns about the move and Republicans aren’t inclined to help Biden with his biggest political liability ahead of a critical election in November.

I tuned in to watch Jay Powell’s testimony in front of the Senate today. I was struck by how partisan the questioning was. Democrats are eager to shift blame for high prices and Republicans are eager to the pin the blame for high prices on the current administration. Tomorrow he speaks to Congress where a lot more people are up competing for re-election this year so the tone of the questioning is likely to be more aggressive. The tax holiday on gasoline is a crowd-pleasing measure which is unlikely to implemented. Meanwhile oil prices extended their decline as traders price in falling demand amid slowing growth.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave his most explicit acknowledgment to date that steep rate hikes could tip the US economy into recession, saying one is possible and calling a soft landing “very challenging.”

“The other risk, though, is that we would not manage to restore price stability and that we would allow this high inflation to get entrenched in the economy,” Powell told lawmakers on Wednesday. “We can’t fail on that task. We have to get back to 2% inflation.”

The Fed chair was testifying before the Senate Banking Committee during the first of two days of congressional hearings. In his opening remarks, Powell said that officials “anticipate that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate,” to cool the hottest price pressures in 40 years. 

“Inflation has obviously surprised to the upside over the past year, and further surprises could be in store. We therefore will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook,” he said.

 

“Very challenging” is likely a gross understatement. I was surprised to hear him say the economy is very strong and capable of withstanding additional interest rate hikes. Instead, I suspect we are going to see an abrupt fall off in the volume of goods traded as the cumulative effects of inflation cut into disposable income.

The march of technological innovation is agnostic to what we might be comfortable with. In a world of heightening geopolitical stress, the capacity for deep fakes to become totally prevalent is non-trivial. If there was declining faith in the trustworthiness of media coverage before, that is only going to deteriorate in future.
 
This article from extremetech covering the development of swarms of drones acting in concert is also worthy of consideration. Here is a section:
 
The swarm has another interesting and somewhat alarming capability. The designers showed the algorithm can follow a human target through the environment with incredible accuracy. If one robot loses sight of the target because they walk behind a tree, another will be able to maintain visual contact. That means the first robot still knows where the target is and can pick up again on the other side of the obstruction. With more development, this technology could make it virtually impossible for a person to evade the swarm. What happens then is up to the operator of said drone swarm. 
 

This is what the future will look like but the war in Ukraine has also been a bonanza for drone manufacturers. They are the ultimate throw away device and future wars will largely be fought by machines.

One of the questions subscribers as most often is how to find details of my open trades. To make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change.

A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

Some of the topics covered include: Hang Seng firms on support from China's credit impulse. US retail inventories surging which will hit demand for Chinese exports, Wall Street bounces, oil, copper and gold stable to weak, grains roll over, Treasury yields stable, Yen at new low.

In the past both you and David thought that the precious metals where to be the last recourse for the currencies. Is that still a big factor for your bullishness vs the precious metals?

At the moment for the USA the dollar is very strong. Some, as u know, think it has overdone, peaked.

Is that the reason why you still like gold longer term.

Would appreciate your comments

Thank you for this topical question which may be of interest to the Collective. Gold is a monetary metal and does best when it is appreciating in every currency.

At present the Dollar is very strong and that has impeded gold’s performance in US Dollars. The strong performance of the Brazilian Real and Russian Ruble have had much the same effect on the price when denominated in those currencies. Gold is trending higher in Euro and is even more impressive from the perspective of a Yen-based investor.

Agricultural commodities fell, offering some reprieve to rampant food inflation, as traders weigh incoming data on harvests and looming recessions in some major economies.

Wheat harvests are kicking off across the Northern Hemisphere, with analysts continuing to increase production estimates for some key growers like Russia after favorable weather. The US will give an update on its winter-wheat harvest progress later on Tuesday.

The prospect of recessions is also weighing on commodity prices, according to analyst Agritel. Subdued economies can mean lower fuel use or spur shoppers to cut back on higher-priced foods like meat. Chicago soybean oil is headed for its longest retreat since 2019, Paris rapeseed erased its year-to-date gain and Malaysian palm oil recently entered a bear market as rival producer Indonesia ramps up exports.

The oldest adage from the commodity market is the cure for high prices is high prices. I was in two different supermarkets yesterday and failed to find pasta for sale. Meanwhile the supply of instant noodles does not appear to have been impacted, probably because they are higher margin products. The leap in wheat prices and price sensitivity of consumers means demand destruction may already be setting in.

As China’s property slump persists, one developer is trying to entice farmers to buy homes by accepting their crops as payment. 

Central China Real Estate Ltd. is offering to pay farmers as much as 160,000 yuan ($24,000) for their wheat to offset down payments for homes in its River Mansion residential project in Shangqiu, a city in Henan province, according to a Monday marketing post. Weeks ago, it offered to accept garlic from growers looking to buy homes in another project in Kaifeng city.

The move reflects how far some developers are willing to go to attract wary homebuyers as the economy slows and the industry endures a crippling cash crunch. Central China, the country’s 37th-largest builder, recently sought state support when its parent company agreed to sell a stake to the provincial government. 

Its perk to farmers appears aggressive. Central China was offering to buy wheat at 4 yuan a kilogram, higher than the record 3-3.1 yuan that China’s state stockpiling company was purchasing the grain for earlier this month. 

Landlocked Henan is China’s largest wheat-producing area. The country just had another bumper harvest of winter-sown wheat. 

Similarly for garlic, Central China offered to pay 10 yuan a kilogram last month. That’s higher than the 6.92 yuan wholesale price as of June 10, according to weekly data released by the commerce ministry. 

Property manias tend to start in prime areas and move progressively further into the hinterland. During a crash it is usually the third tier cities and far flung suburbs that see the most aggressive selling pressure. Eventually, even the prime areas take a hit. China’s tier 3 cities have seen an epic bull market in housing as capital fled the exorbitant prices in the tier 1 cities. It is a measure of how desperate the company is to make sales that it is now willing to accept volatile commodities rather than insist on cash.

A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subcsriber's Area. 

Some of the topics discussed include: copper, gold, S&P500, FTSE-350 at important areas of potential support. Bitcoin struggles to hold $20000 after weekend volatility, copper/gold ratio turning lower is positive for bonds. 

The Greens party minister also said the country will rely more on coal-fired power plants to produce electricity. A bill providing the legal basis is making its way though parliament and should take effect quickly after discussions in the upper house on July 8. 

Using more coal to generate power is “bitter, but it’s simply necessary in this situation to reduce gas consumption,” he said. “We must and we will do everything we can to store as much gas as possible in the summer and fall.” 

Siegfried Russwurm, president of the German industry lobby group BDI, said the country should “stop gas-fired power generation now and get coal-fired power plants out of reserve immediately,” in an interview with Funke Mediengruppe published Saturday. Importing electricity from neighboring countries has its limits, he said.

Savings will also have to be made by the industry. An auction model will begin this summer to encourage industrial gas consumers to save fuel, which can then be put into storage, Habeck said, adding that the government is ready to take further measures if needed.

There is a lot of discussion in the financial media about the possibility the Eurozone will break up. I don’t see that as a realistic possibility. Europeans understand they are in a better position to oppose foreign adventurism together than apart. Putting cherished climate goals on the long finger is an example of the lengths they are willing to go to protect national interests.

However, the Fed is limited in raising rates. Powell faces a problem that Volker didn’t have. We have $24 trillion of debt held by the public, which is over 6 times in the last 20 years.

Approximately $7 trillion has to be rolled in the next year. Every 1% increase in rates adds $70 billion to the deficit annually. So, raising rates to 4% would be an additional $280 billion, 85 would be $560 billion, and a full Volker 19% would be $1.3 trillion…and that’s just the first year.

Raising short rates will also cause a strain on the Fed’s financials, where assets are of long duration and the funding is at overnight rates $5 trillion of overnight liabilities costs an extra $50 billion per percent increase in interest the Fed will pay on reserves. I will let you figure out the rest of the math for bigger increases.

The fiscal situation has limited the Fed’s flexibility.

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

The 1.5% increase in the Fed Funds rate so far this year has increased the deficit by $105 billion. Nevertheless, the Dollar has been firm and there has been little concern about the knock-on effects of this on government finances. That is because fiscal tightening is in effect even if it is not being talked about.  

The UK this week will face up to surging inflation and labor strikes as well as a rising risk of recession in a series of setbacks that have echoes of the 1970s.

Strikes are likely to halt at least half of all trains for three days in the worst disruption to mass transit since Margaret Thatcher was prime minister. The teachers union also is set to ballot its members on a strike, adding to the list of professions considering action.

On Wednesday, inflation is set to rocket to a new 40-year high with the cost of goods leaving factories already racing ahead at a double-digit pace. Last week, the government confirmed the economy shrank in the three months through April, the weakest performance since a coronavirus lockdown.

 

The risk of a wage/price spiral is nontrivial in the UK. The effort to keep wage increases below the official inflation rate is obviously aimed at reducing that possibility but workers are understandably upset. The challenge is everyone feels the same way, but only the most organized unions have the collective bargaining power to achieve their goals. That’s going to further underscore the gap between the privileged and the underrepresented in society. Meanwhile transportation strikes fall most heavily on people who do not have the luxury of working from home.

A link to this week's Big Picture Long-Term video is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

“One of the factors affecting prices is this: nine major shipping companies consolidated into three alliances controlling the vast majority, mostly shipping in the world,” Biden said.

“And each of these nine is foreign-owned. During the pandemic, these carriers increased their prices by as much as 1,000%.”

Attempts to “demonize ocean carriers” are not only inaccurate but dangerous because they undermine the ability to understand the root of US supply-chain problems, the World Shipping Council said in a statement.

“As long as America’s ports, rail yards and warehouses remain overloaded and unable to cope with the increased trade levels, vessels will remain stuck outside ports to the detriment of importers as well as exporters,” the WSC said. “Ocean carriers continue to move record volumes of cargo for our country and have invested heavily in new capacity – America needs to make the same commitment and invest in its land-side logistics infrastructure.”

Price controls are a lot easier to impose when the targets are overseas companies. The challenge is that insisting ships need to leave with full cargoes ignores the reality of a trade imbalance. China does not import the same quantity of goods from the USA that it exports. It’s impossible to send every ship back full, at a minimum loading empty containers is time consuming and additional layers of compliance raise costs and slow down turn around. Of course, there is also the possibility these measures could shift supply of ships away from the USA if the burden of regulation becomes too onerous.

In a sign of deepening turmoil in the crypto community, Babel Finance became the second major digital-asset lender this week to freeze withdrawals, telling clients it is facing “unusual liquidity pressures” as it contends with recent market declines.

“The crypto market has seen major fluctuations, and some institutions in the industry have experienced conductive risk events,” the Asia-based lender and asset manager said in a notice on its website to explain the temporary measure.

Another day, another crypto exchange declines to allow withdrawals. Cryptocurrencies are pure liquidity plays so they are unlikely to recover until there is clear visibility on where the next outsized round of new money is going to come from.

Seagen jumps as much as 20% Friday, the most since February 2021, after Dow Jones reported that Merck is eyeing a purchase of the biotech firm, citing people familiar with the matter.

Merck gains as much as 1% Friday
Report adds that talks have been in progress for a while, although a deal is not imminent
Marketing agreement could be struck instead of full purchase
Other unnamed companies are also interested in Seagen

The biotechnology sector was overtaken by vaccine mania during the pandemic. A small number of companies led by Moderna quickly grew to dominate the weighting of the sector. For 18 months the biotech index behaved more like a small number of vaccine providers, than the wide array of solutions to intransigent problems the companies it is comprised by represent. The collapse of vaccine providers, as the immediate risk from this pandemic recedes, means the biotech sector is back trading on the individual merits of its companies.

A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

Some of the topics discussed include: Dollar weakens are global central banks play catch up with the Fed, gold and oil firm, natural gas eases, stocks extend declines, bond remain weak. recession risk continues to rise. 

A Small BOJ Policy Change Should Have a Large Ripple Effect While Japan’s policy makers are expected to continue with monetary easing, there’s growing speculation in global markets about the potential for a shock decision. The BOJ has been keeping a lid on government bond yields since 2016 and defending that cap vigorously in recent days, but pressure is building to either alter its policy stance or give guidance on when that will end after the Federal Reserve’s biggest interest-rate hike since 1994. The yen rallied as much as 1.1% Thursday.

“As the BOJ is now the last central bank standing as regards easy policy, it’s unsurprising that bets against the BOJ are building,” according to Jeremy Stretch, head of G-10 foreign-exchange strategy at CIBC. While Stretch expects the central bank to stick with its current policy, “any suggestion of an adjustment to the YCC threshold would result in a material bounce in JPY valuations,” he wrote, referring to yield-curve control, in a note published Thursday.

The Dollar began to ease today as the risk of recession rises and other countries join the Fed in raising rates. The surprise more by both the SNB and BoE begs the question how long the BoJ can hold out against rising inflationary pressures. They will certainly be among the last to raise rates.

Gazprom said Thursday it was further cutting gas flows to Europe citing more technical issues with its Nord Stream pipeline, Reuters first reported. 

Russia's state-run supplier's latest reduction, the second in just two days, edges the Nord Stream's pipeline's capacity down by 40%. The move comes as European countries try to bulk up gas storage in anticipation of winter. European stores are currently 56% full, Reuters said. 

Gazprom said issues with a gas compressor lead to the initial reduction. The company said that a delay in equipment sent to Canada for repairs is to blame for Thursday's reduction in flows, a claim that Germany disputes as a reason to push gas prices higher.

European natural gas prices climbed as much as 30% Thursday morning on the news. Norway, Europe's second-largest supplier behind Russia, has increased exports to make up for a curb in Russian gas in light of the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine. The EU pledged to be 90% rid of Russian supply by the end of 2022, and fully exit from Moscow-sourced fossil fuels by 2027. 

The EU has also turned to liquefied natural gas to make up for supply shortcomings in light of its sanctions against Russia, although a fire in Texas last week at a key export hub lowered supply expectations. 

Russia’s energy/economic military strategy will be most effective if it can prevent Europe from rebuilding inventories over the summer. The rationale is European politicians will be much more amenable to make concessions if their populations are cold and miserable this winter.

The German arms maker expects revenue to surge by as much as 20% per year driven by growing demand for military equipment, according to Chief Executive Officer Armin Papperger. Rheinmetall is boosting capacity and can at least triple ammunition production within the next twelve months, he told Germany’s Bild am Sonntag in an interview. 

The company also is able to double military truck output “because a lot of Cold War infrastructure can be reactivated fairly quickly,” the CEO said.

Rheinmetall’s first modernized Marder light tanks are also ready for delivery, Papperger said, adding that when and where the vehicles get shipped depends on the German government. Berlin has faced criticism for what some see as tepid commitments to deliver weapons to Ukraine.

Rheinmetall is currently updating 100 decommissioned Marder vehicles, 88 Leopard 1 tanks and additional Leopard 2 versions. The vehicles could potentially be delivered to Ukraine or replace equipment dispatched by other countries.

Spending money on arms is always easier when there is a war. The argument for modernizing the military apparatus of any country is more difficult without a clear urgent reason to do so. That’s especially true for democracies where competing priorities often take precedence and even more so for Europe with explicit protection guarantees from the USA. .

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Some of the topics discussed include: Fed hikes rates 75 basis points, ECB aids Italian debt, buy the news rebound in risk assets has been modest so far with financial conditions still expected to tighten further. 

Federal Reserve officials raised their main interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point -- the biggest increase since 1994 -- and signaled they will keep hiking aggressively this year, resorting to drastic measures to restrain the rampant inflation they failed to forecast.

Slammed by critics for not anticipating the fastest price gains in four decades and then for being too slow to respond to it, Chairman Jerome Powell and colleagues on Wednesday intensified their effort to cool prices by lifting the target range for the federal funds rate to 1.5% to 1.75%.

They projected raising it to 3.4% by year-end, implying another 175 basis points of tightening this year.

The median official saw a peak rate of 3.8% in 2023, and five officials forecast a federal funds rate above 4%; the median projection in March was for 1.9% this year and 2.8% next. Traders in futures markets were betting on a peak rate of about 4% ahead of the release.

The Fed reiterated it will shrink its massive balance sheet by $47.5 billion a month -- a move that took effect June 1 -- stepping up to $95 billion in September.

The Fed expects to raise rates above 3% by the end of the year. That’s a higher high. The only time the Fed Funds rate posted a higher high in the past was in 1999 and it was quickly reversed. This time around, the big question is how long that level will be sustained and where the next low will be.

The ECB surprised markets Wednesday by holding the unscheduled meeting to discuss a market backdrop that’s deteriorated markedly since plans to start lifting borrowing costs from record lows were outlined last week.

Investors aren’t convinced officials can raise borrowing costs to combat unprecedented euro-zone inflation while also keeping yields among the bloc’s most indebted members in check. A possible 75 basis-point rate increase from the Federal Reserve later in the day could add to the jitters.

“I see today’s statement as the bare minimum of what could be expected, but also the most realistic outcome,” said Piet Christiansen, chief strategist at Danske Bank. “With ECB tasking the committees they have sent a signal that they have fully committed to ensure the functioning of the monetary policy transmission. However, they have also bought themselves some time. We will likely only hear from the committees at the July or September meeting.”

A different tool to address market stress would open a new chapter in the ECB’s fractious relationship with bond markets ever since debt-laden Greece first succumbed to turmoil more than a decade ago.

That crisis was ultimately tamed by ECB President Mario Draghi’s creation of the OMT program, part of his pledge to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the euro. Meanwhile, market stress at the onset of the pandemic was addresses with another emergency bond-buying program.

Officials have repeated recently that they’re ready to devise new instruments as required, but have disappointed markets with a lack of detail on their plans.

The ECB’s QE program bought bonds weighted by the size of the respective economies in the Eurozone. That was a handy way of ensuring the ECB ended up with higher quality bonds; heavily weighted to Germany. Since Italy is the third largest economy in the region it also served the purpose of helping suppress its yields.  

Round numbers tend to be a fixation for Bitcoin chart-watchers, with many keeping their eyes peeled on $20,000 amid the latest swoon. But veterans know to be on the lookout for a more noteworthy one: $19,511.

That’s the high the coin hit during its last bull cycle in 2017, which it reached at the end of that year. Throughout its roughly 12-year trading history, Bitcoin has never dropped below previous cycle peaks, according to Vetle Lunde and Jaran Mellerud at Arcane Research, so a break below it would be momentous. 

“A potential visit below this level could lead to a lot of hodlers capitulating and a wind-down of leverage, making this a very important support level to pay attention to onwards,” the pair wrote in a note, referencing long-term, staunch holders. 

In addition, besides the psychological importance of the level, most of the open interest in Bitcoin options is based on the $20,000 strike price, according to Arcane, “which can contribute to selling pressure in the spot market should the price fall below.”

If most option strikes are at $20,000 and most options trade for several thousand dollars, the majority of positions are already underwater. Therefore, stops are being placed on leveraged bets, even as some traders look for entry opportunities.

The Food and Drug Administration on Monday approved the first systemic treatment for alopecia areata, an autoimmune disorder that causes hair loss and affects more than 300,000 people in the US each year.

The drug is sold by Eli Lilly  & Co. and Incyte Corp. under the brand name Olumiant and comes in the form of oral tablets taken once daily. It’s approved for adult patients with severe alopecia. In two big trials, about 40% of people with severe alopecia achieved significant hair growth after 36 weeks, according to the FDA. 

Sitting around the kitchen table with most of my siblings two weeks ago, the topic of hair loss and greying was of particular interest to my sister who is turning 40 at her next birthday and my youngest brother who is 25.

Hair loss treatments are big business. Minoxidil (Rogaine) application is apparently almost more trouble than it is worth.  Finasteride is a pill but reduces testosterone and can impact libido which is not exactly ideal. Meanwhile Elon Musk’s success in tackling his male pattern baldness clearly signals that at least surgical options are available. 

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Some of the topics discussed include: equity sell off pauses ahead of Fed decision tomorrow, bond yield continue to march higher, US natural gas pulls back sharply on export outage, UK price jumps for the same reason, Yen extends decline, Chinese large cap tech outperforming because of better liquidity provision. 

The jacked-up moves reflect the BOJ’s commitment to protect its yield-curve control policy even if it prompts further slides in the yen as the Federal Reserve accelerates its rate hike pace. Worse-than-expected inflation data from the US has been a catalyst behind the global market rout this week.

Governor Haruhiko Kuroda insists it’s too early for Japan to step back from keeping rates ultra low, with the economy still recovering from the pandemic and inflation stemming largely from higher energy prices. The vast majority of surveyed economists expect the bank to stick with its policy settings this week.

Still, as the pressure continues to build on the BOJ’s easing framework, speculation smolders on that changes will have to come eventually.

“There’s growing market concern over possible adjustments in yield curve control given the yen is weakening so rapidly,” said Hiroshi Miyazaki, senior economist at Mizuho Research & Technologies.

“The BOJ is likely to be able to keep yields low for 10-year yields, but it remains to be seen whether it can control longer maturities.”

 

Japan has been trying to ignite inflationary forces for years. Arguably, it was impossible to succeed in that objective because the world was in a secular disinflationary trend. Now that inflationary pressures are ramping higher at the fastest pace in decades, Japan is not about to miss the opportunity to change the population’s psychology.

US natural gas futures plummeted and European prices surged after the operator of a key Texas export terminal said it may take three months to partially restart the facility following a fire last week. 

Gas for next-month delivery in New York tumbled as much as 19% to $7.008 per million British thermal units as the shutdown threatens to leave supply stranded in US shale basins. European futures on the Title Transfer facility hub in Amsterdam jumped 18% to $30.14.

The role of LNG in smoothing out the arbitrage between the North American and European gas is probably under appreciated by investors. The transatlantic LNG market did not exist five years ago. Today it is expected to compensate for Europe’s reluctance to continue to buy Russia supply. The loss of one plant, even temporarily highlight just how tenuous that plan is.

Do you think there is much Central bank activity in the gold market? I can see countries like Turkey and Russia (?) selling to meet current requirements and on the other side countries ideologically opposed to the US wanting reserves which cannot be sanctioned. I guess data is kept secret but.....

Thank you for this question which I suspect will be of interest to the Collective. Russia miscalculated how strong Europe's response would be to the invasion of Ukraine, so it does not have access to nearly as much of its reserves as it might like.

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Some of the topics discussed include: Treasury yields break out, oil steady, gold weak, stocks extend declines, bitcoin breaks lower. Recession risk elevated

Thanks for the very good summary of the market situation after your well-deserved break.

I'm just puzzled by one thing.  You seem pretty convinced that the Nasdaq will continue to go down for at least a while.  Yet you say one should have a very small short on it.  Why only a very small short, why not a big one? Regards

 

Thank you for this question which I believe related to the Friday audio. My concern arises from the reflection of investor sentiment I witnessed at The Chart Seminar. Investors still want to buy the dip. That strategy works well in a bull market. It can decimate a portfolio in a bear market which is what we have now. So how do you sit on your hands when the temptation to buy is so strong and has been such a positive experience for the last 14 years?

Celsius Network Ltd. paused withdrawals, swaps and transfers after weeks of speculation over the sustainability of the outsized returns being offered by the DeFi lending platform, fueling a broad cryptocurrency selloff. 

Crypto markets tumbled after the Celsius announcement, with Bitcoin dropping as much as 14% to the lowest level since December 2020 and other major tokens like Ether also falling sharply. Celsius’s CEL token was down about 50% to 19 cents as of 7:16 a.m. in New York Kong, according to pricing data site CoinGecko.

The meltdown is the latest blow to DeFi, or decentralized finance, crypto’s answer to traditional finance, with more control and less costs for users but also less oversight and more risk. 

Doubts about the sky-high yields backing products such as those Celsius offers have intensified after the collapse of the Terra ecosystem in May, and as tighter monetary policy across the world curbs demand for riskier assets. The CEL token promises “actual financial rewards,” including as much as 30% extra returns weekly, according to its website.

While the collapse of the TerraUSD (UST) stablecoin captured most of the market’s attention, one of the project’s main attractions for investors had been its promised interest rate, set as high as 20% for UST deposits in the Terra blockchain-based lending project Anchor. Celsius was an investor in the project. Both revolve around the promise of super-high yields to keep up demand, which itself depended on a steady flow of new entrants feeding the system, or borrowing to pay the high rates.   

Relying on a steady flow of new entrants to support outsized yields for existing investors sounds very similar to a ponzi scheme. The parallels with the yields Bernie Madoff promised are obvious. Even the 20% headline number is the same. That suggests investors in these schemes are either ignorant of market history or simply ignore it. 

Not that there isn’t anything else to consider today, but I would appreciate more information on moving averages as discussed in the audio.  I realize there are several types that can be applied and they present different results. 

Is there a standard across the board we should apply or is one appropriate for a type of chart and time period and not for another?  I just want to know how to apply what and when.

Thank you for this question which many people are wondering about at present because several major stocks and indices are testing their respective secular trend means, defined by the 1000-day MA.

In the Chart Library we only calculate moving averages using daily closing data. That result is then plotted on any time series regardless of whether one is looking at a daily, weekly or monthly chart. Historically, systems defaulted to a simple moving average but many technicians and algorithmic traders use exponential averages.

Bloomberg calculates average of daily charts using daily date but calculates weekly charts using weekly data and so on. That will have an effect on what level the average is displayed at.

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I spent the last couple of weeks in Killarney and London. It was very enjoyable but was also an eye-opening experience. The Chart Seminar was also a big learning experience for me. Getting to speak with investors from the UK, Switzerland, Dubai, Belgium, Israel and elsewhere, and listening to their concerns and ambitions is both enlivening and educative.

I am now more convinced than ever that we are coasting along the front edge of a recession for much of Europe and the USA.

The future of technological innovation and wonderful solutions to the many issues facing society is undimmed. However, the market is also a discounting mechanism.

Secular bull markets make lots of big promises about what is possible in the future. They even deliver on those promises. The biggest lesson from the history of markets is that happens independently of the share price.
This point and figure chart of Apple is enough to given anyone pause. It’s taking the entire history of weekly closes and is a clear break of the secular trend.

This version takes daily closes and also exhibits significant deterioration in uptrend consistency.

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One of the questions subscribers as most often is how to find details of my open trades. To make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change.

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Now in its 53rd year, the first venue for The Chart Seminar in the post pandemic era will be in London on June 6th and 7th at the Army & Navy Club.

This event is sold out. A waitlist has now begun. 

To reserve your place please contact [email protected]

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Some of the topics discussed include: flight to safety underway as bonds, the Yen and gold rebound, oil pauses at the upper side of the short-term range. stock markets continue to weaken on rising growth concerns, 

In Friday analysis, you mentioned situation on the Russian market. I would like to share with you some thoughts that can be interesting to the Collective.

The problem is, you view rouble as a market instrument. It used to be, but no longer. It was a convertible currency, but now it is not. There are several reasons for its impressive rebound and all of them have nothing to do with the market forces. First, all Russian markets were stopped in late February. Then, exporters were forced to sell 80% of foreign exchange revenues. To stop the bank run, the central bank did everything to kill demand for foreign currencies. I will not give all the measures but among them: almost all transfers abroad were banned. Foreign companies and residents could not withdraw money from Russia, Russian residents were allowed to transfer abroad only $5,000 a month. Banks were banned to sell currencies to individuals. 12% commission was introduced to buy dollars and euros on the Moscow exchange. Foreign investors were banned from transactions and withdrawing their money. Some of those restrictions were later withdrawn or reduced BUT: there is one more huge factor, and this is collapse of imports.

In April, US commerce secretary said that US exports to Russia fell 90% due to sanctions. German exports fell 60%. Even Chinese ones fell from $8 bn a month in January and February to $3.8 in March and April. Even if foreign companies are ready to sell something, it is impossible to transport products to Russia (The Wall Street Journal has a nice piece on this - https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-russian-businesses-are-skirting-sanctions-11652828497 ) At the same time, Russian exports are large due to high energy prices. So, Russia has a huge current account surplus, almost no outflow on capital account and no demand for forex on the local market. That is the reason for the rouble strength.

The Kremlin presents exchange rates as a victory over sanctions. But Robin Brooks, the Institute of International Finance chief economist, calls this an “illusion.” The economy is going to have the worst recession since the early 1990s (after the crash of the Soviet economy), GDP can fall by 10% or more. Russian analysts also call rouble strength, paradoxically, the sign of the economy weakness.

The same is with the dollar denominated RTS stock index. It rose simply because rouble rose. If you look at the rouble denominated Moscow Exchange index (IMOEX), you’ll see no growth at all. Today it is even lower than when trading resumed after a one-month pause. (I attach the IMOEX chart, the one in the Chart Library stopped renewing in 2018.)

Let me also say a couple of words on the state of the Russian economy. For example, car sales crashed 78% in April. Car sales and after sales sector employs about 2 mln people. What these people are going to do? Foreign car companies, not just western but also Korean (they were market leaders in Russia), and Japanese stopped sending spare parts. Parts prices have spiked but soon they will also come to an end.

Nothing illustrates the situation better than news headlines (Russian, not foreign ones). Here are just some from one day last week:

Government allowed to produce cars without airbags

Mercury discharge rate into Baikal lake to increase 13-fold

Russia will start importing used cellular communications equipment (By the way, Russian mobile communications are one of the best and cheapest in the world. In 2017, while in London, I bought a local SIM-card and found out that there was no mobile connection in the London tube, let alone Internet connection. Moscow metro had had free Wi-Fi for several years already. I paid $20, on the pre-war rate, a month for a family of four with unlimited calls, unlimited mobile internet, unlimited home internet, and digital TV. Mobile communications were built from scratch in the 1990s, and not by oligarchs but by genuine entrepreneurs. It was always an example, what Russian business can achieve without government interference.)

Russian airports warn of reverting to manual security screening (this is due to lack of spare parts for screening equipment)

Moscow will revive Moskvich car production (this is an awful Soviet car; Renault decided to leave Russia and the Moscow government took over its local plant; actually, the “new” car will be some Chinese)

Today’s news:
Government purchases of vaccines are in jeopardy
Imports of button phones rose 43% (because Apple and Samsung stopped selling smartphones, and Chinese producers also reduced imports significantly)
New home sales in Russian regions ground to a halt
China will leave the largest LNG project in Russia without equipment, because of sanctions
Russian clinical labs are running out of chemical reagents for tests
Aeroflot will begin to take planes to pieces, because of sanctions
Putin’s foundation will leave children with cystic fibrosis without life-saving medicine.

Hope, this helps to understand current situation in Russia.

Thank you for this generous account which I’m sure will be of value to the Collective. The pain being inflicted on regular Russian citizens is probably going to intensify. The OECD is attempting to squeeze Russia by withholding manufactured goods and technological widgets from the economy. In doing so they hope to drive living standards so low that Russia will be forced to relent.

The Roman experience looks eerily similar to the present US economic situation. Just like ancient Rome, the USA enjoys the privilege and shoulders the burden of enforcing its “Washington Consensus” on the world, but like late-stage Rome, the US cannot fund its army and welfare state through taxation alone.  

As Rome had to resort to currency debasement to pay for its welfare/warfare state, the US finds itself increasingly unable to fund current expenditures through taxation. For each downcycle the US relies ever more on a complex process of bond issuance, covert, and more recently, overt inflationary policies to ensure the once mighty Empire can pay its bills.

Although the US saw expenditures soar during the world wars, large subsequent surpluses allowed the Federal fiscal house to remain in order. When the last vestiges of the old Gold Standard were abandoned in the 1970s, the spending dynamic changed as the Empire no longer needed to adhere to a sound fiscal policy. Funding was secured via the central bank. The modern-day Empire felt entitled to take full advantage of its ‘exorbitant privilege’ to keep its soldiers and plebs content, docile and obedient.

During the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), taxes covered less than 60% of outlays, down from an average of ~90% in preceding decades. In the course of the Covid-19 shutdowns the US government funded less than 50% of its outlays from taxation.

Rome found itself equally tied down by a Gordian knot. The ancient Empire had to fund its army above all else. Imperator Severus famously advised his sons Caracalla and Geta to “Be harmonious, enrich the soldiers, scorn all others” 61 to remain in power.

Similarly, the US has to placate its industrial military complex, but even more important to modern day ‘Imperators’ is to mollify the ~60% of its population who are either on state welfare or directly employed by the government.

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The investment community has been conditioned to believe technological innovation will continue to provide sufficiently large benefits and productivity gains to compensate for rising debt levels. A powerful secular bull market delivers big gains and changes how people perceive risk and react to downdrafts. That helps to explain the rush to buy the dips at every initial sign of a relief rally taking hold.

Artificial Intelligence, robotics, synthetic biology, autonomous vehicles and nuclear fusion are being discussed as near-term realizable solutions. I don’t think investors are prepared for the possibility the timeline for these kinds of advances might stretch to a decade or more. The fact Elon Musk’s latest pronouncement that full self-driving is less than a year away fell flat is a sign enthusiasm for inevitable imminent technological disruption is waning.  

“It’s useless to replace the head of Petrobras, Bolsonaro needs to change his ways,” Lula said at an interview with a local radio. “He could call a meeting of the energy policy council, bring Petrobras to the table and decide that prices won’t be dollarized anymore.”

Bolsonaro sacked the third chief executive officer he had appointed to lead Petrobras, piling pressure on the company to stop raising fuel prices as inflation running above 12% becomes a major campaign issue ahead of October’s general election. Pushing Petrobras to absorb higher crude prices instead of passing them to consumers is a rare point of coincidence between Bolsonaro and Lula as they vie for the presidency.

Inflation is going to be a major election issue everywhere this year. The most successful politicians are likely to be those who make big promises like increasing wages, taxing the rich, implementing price controls on commodities and/or boosting domestic supply.

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Some of the topics discussed include: short covering rally underway but bond yields remains stubbornly high and Dollar is unwinding short-term overbought, natural gas and shipping companies exhibit relaitve strength, gold steady, US natural gas firm, European gas soft. 

He knew that US shale was a threat to him in two ways. One, because it meant that US natural gas would compete with his natural gas in Europe, and that’s what we’re seeing today. And secondly, this would really augment America’s position in the world and give it a kind of flexibility it didn’t have when it was importing 60% of its oil. 

And

That’s the question that’s really weighing now because in terms of oil, there’s enough crude oil in the world. You have to move it around, but between strategic stocks, between demand being down in China, you can manage that. When you get into products like diesel, it gets harder. And then you’re going to the hardest thing with natural gas, and that is exactly as you go into the winter. So, the big question now is can they fill storage so that they can get through the winter, and, by the way, not only stay warm, but keep industry operating. And I think we can say that Putin made a series of decisions which kind of were irrational -- that his army was really good, that Ukraine wouldn’t be able to resist, that the US had just gone through getting out of Afghanistan and was deeply divided, that Europe was so dependent on his energy that they would say, ‘OK, this is terrible, but life goes on.’ And none of that happened.

But I think he’s still calculating. And he said that ultimately this energy disruption -- and we are in a huge disruption of energy markets -- would be such a big threat to the European economy that the coalition that now exists would fall apart. I think that’s his wager right now. And the Achilles heel is what you pointed to: what happens as Europe goes into the fall and winter. And we’ve had at least one German, very prominent industrialist, who said, ‘This is too dangerous for the European economy. We should negotiate something with Putin.’

We are in a market lull for European natural gas prices as we head into summer and lower heating demand. The price of European gas (Netherlands) is down from a peak of €140 in December to €74 today. The UK price has been much more volatile and is down from a March high of £800 to £138.

Besides splurging on dividends and share repurchases, the once-scarcely profitable container lines are planning to use this once-in-a-lifetime haul for acquisitions and investments. Some aim to turn themselves into end-to-end logistics giants, in the vein of Amazon.com Inc. or FedEx Corp.

In theory, this should make them more resilient when shipping freight rates normalize, which is bound to happen one day. Shipping costs have already come down a bit, but due, in part, to the spread of omicron in China, some industry observers now don’t expect port congestion to ease until next year. 

Of course, the big risk is these hungry hippos waste their epic windfall on empire building, and an industry that’s already on the defensive due to its inflation-stoking profiteering may end up stoking an even greater political backlash.

It’s a sign of how the ambitions of the shipping industry have been transformed that a container liner joining forces with an airline no longer seems unusual: Mediterranean Shipping Co. is angling to acquire a controlling stake in Italian flag carrier ITA Airways, while the billionaire principal shareholder of Germany’s Hapag Lloyd, Klaus-Micheal Kuehne, has built a 10% stake in Lufthansa AG. In addition to expanding its own air-cargo fleet, Maersk agreed to acquire air-freight forwarding specialist Senator International in November.

The two things that bring down shipping rates are softer demand from lower economic growth and a surge in supply of new ships. If shipping companies are spending some of their windfall on logistics or airlines, that does nothing to increase the supply of new ships.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. jumped by the most in 18 months as upbeat comments from Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon on the US economy and improved guidance helped drive bank shares higher.

Shares of the JPMorgan rose as much as 7.1% on Monday, the most since November 2020, after the start of the company’s investor day, when it boosted its annual forecast for net interest income excluding its markets business and maintained its expense outlook. The KBW Bank Index climbed as much as 4.4%, with Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. all gaining more than 5%.

Wells Fargo banking analyst Mike Mayo said in a note to clients that the biggest takeaway from JPMorgan’s gathering so far is that it shows there’s “no recession imminent.” JPMorgan’s presentation was bullish for the company and “even more so for the industry,” he added.

Bank shares have been under extensive pressure this year as worries that an aggressive series of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve could plunge the US economy into a recession. The KBW Bank Index has fallen 25% since hitting a record high in early January.

JPMorgan has been the worst hit among the biggest banking stocks. While Monday’s surge has helped erase some of the decline this year, the lender is still down nearly 22%, making it the worst performing big bank stock. Still, analysts have not given up on the company, with the average 12-month price target forecasting a 23% gain, near the highest it’s been since the pandemic began.

Rising interest rates are generally considered positive for banks because they get to charge more for their services. The challenge today is the spread they rely on to profit has evaporated as the yield curve has flattened. The absolute rate on mortgages also means refinancing income has disappeared on mortgages. That implies banks will probably do better when the yield curve steepens and yields contract.

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As inflation has continued to surprise on the upside, countries all over the world are accelerating their efforts to raise rates. Brazil’s Selic Target rate is now 12.7% and the EU is beginning to talk about moving deposit rates out of negative territory.

We tend to think of interest rates as barometers of efforts by central banks to control domestic factors. However, there is also the additional point that if interest rates are rising everywhere, the availability of cheap cash is declining and competition for what is available becomes more fervent.  

Russia has started the process of paying holders of two foreign-currency bonds before a key carveout in restrictions expires next week.

The money isn’t due for another week, but the settlement date for both payments is two days after a temporary exemption for US bondholders to receive Russian bond funds is set to end. 

That loophole has allowed the government to get payments through the plumbing of the international financial system to US investors, staving off a foreign default. But Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen characterized the carve-out as “time-limited” last week.

Payments of $71.25 million on a note maturing 2026, and 26.5 million euros ($28 million) on debt due 2036, were transferred to the National Settlement Depository, or NSD, Russia’s Finance Ministry said Friday. It added that its obligations on the debt have been met “in full.” 

Previous fund transfers have been delayed or blocked by financial institutions amid the sweeping international sanctions imposed on Russia since its invasion of Ukraine. About $650 million of payments were made just days before a grace period was due to expire earlier this month.

Russia Dodges Default for Now as Investors Get Dollar Funds

From the NSD, the payments go to international clearinghouses, which distribute the funds to the various custodian banks where foreign bondholders have their accounts.

If that all goes smoothly, attention will turn to almost $400 million of coupons due toward the end of June. 

Without the Treasury loophole for US investors, and no alternative options arranged, the question will be whether bondholders elsewhere can still receive the funds. 

The first two coupons due June 23 have clauses that allow payment in euros, pounds sterling or Swiss francs. Their terms also stipulate that the funds will land with the local paying agent, the NSD.  

One day later, $159 million comes due that can only be paid in dollars, via a unit of JPMorgan as foreign paying agent.     

Engineering a Russian debt default is obviously part of the economic warfare the West has launched in response to the invasion of Ukraine. The impact of those measures is significantly reduced by the fact Russia has one of the lowest debt to GDP ratios in the world.

The media highlight the possibility / likelihood of a worldwide food shortage - could you please cover this subject and share with us your conclusion and how a smart investor could potentially take advantage of such regrettable drama for large parts of the world population.

Thank you for this question which I’m sure is of interest to the Collective. The last time we had a food shortage scare was in 2007/08 when fertilizer shares were accelerating to records, commodity prices were strong, and the rising prosperity of the global consumer was driving calorie consumption for billions of people.

Eoin, When I watch your daily videos, it seems the 1,000-day moving average of Nasdaq 100 is about 11,700. When I look at this on your chart library though, it seems to be nearer 10,600. Which is it? And why the difference? Thanks

Thank you for this question which pops up from time to time. The charts I use default to exponential moving averages. The system default on the Chart Library is for a simple moving average. You can change it to an exponential version by following these instructions:

A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

Some of the topics discussed include: Dollar begins to ease as growth concerns trump inflation concerns, gold, silver, bonds and the yen also strengthen. bitcoin steadies, retailer shares extend declines, oil reverses earlier decline and natural gas remains steady, copper firms.  

Gold stored at the Bank of England has been trading at an unusually low price, in a sign that central banks may be shedding some of their holdings.

The Bank of England’s vaults contain 5,676 tons of bullion, one of the largest stockpiles in the world, which it holds on behalf of other central and commercial banks. Gold held by central banks is typically bought and sold between large institutions in bilateral trades at prices usually within a few cents of the market rate.

In recent days, however, gold at the BOE traded as much as a dollar an ounce beneath benchmark London prices, according to traders familiar with the matter. Such a big discount usually indicates a big institution like a central bank selling a sizable amount of reserves to raise US dollars or other currencies, one of the traders said.

Central banks expanded their gold holdings by almost 456 tons in 2021, according to the latest World Gold Council data, in a long-running trend driven by emerging markets diversifying their reserves away from foreign currencies. Notable buyers included Brazil, Thailand and Ireland, which made its first purchase since 2009.

Buying may slow during 2022, with financial institutions looking to hold more interest bearing dollars as the Federal Reserve gears up for aggressive monetary tightening. The greenback is on track for its biggest annual increase in seven years, putting pressure on the currencies and borrowing costs of emerging market nations.

The BOE gold discount has narrowed since the dollar-an-ounce margin, but remains large by normal standards, said the people, who asked not be identified discussing private information. Bullion has slipped more than 12% since peaking in March, leaving it close to unchanged this year.

A spokesperson for the BOE declined to comment on the discount.

Central bank gold selling is a clear sign of distress at the strength of the US Dollar. The rising cost of importing commodities and dearth of new Dollars following the end of QE and impending QT mean countries are scrambling to source Dollars.

China frequently lashes out at the US over its backing for Taiwan, saying it amounts to interference in its internal affairs. Xi told Biden in the March call that the issue could “have a disruptive impact on the relationship between the two countries” if it was not properly handled, and has referred to China’s quest to gain control of the democratically ruled island as a “historic mission.” 

Earlier this week, Admiral Michael Gilday, the top American naval officer, said Taiwan must prepare itself against potential Chinese aggression through military deterrence that includes getting the right weapons and training. Gilday said this was the “big lesson learned and a wakeup call” following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The US has stepped up its backing for Taiwan since the war in Ukraine started, with a group of senior senators including Republican Lindsey Graham visiting last month. China responded to that trip by conducting air and naval training near the island. 

And

Last week, the State Department updated a Taiwan factsheet posted on its website, dropping a reference to not supporting the island’s independence, and describing it as “a leading democracy and a technological powerhouse.” It also said Taiwan was a key partner in the semiconductor industry and “other critical supply chains.”

On Wednesday, more than 50 senators signed a letter urging Biden to include Taiwan as a partner in the proposed Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, part of Washington’s efforts to counter China’s clout in Asia. Biden will hold a summit in Tokyo with the leaders of Japan, India and Australia as part of a trip to Asia that begins later this week.

I visited Taiwan before the pandemic because I regretted never having had the opportunity to visit Hong Kong before the handover. A large number of factors continue to converge around the Taiwan question. The country has prospered in a geopolitical grey area for decades. That is becoming progressively more difficult as geopolitical tensions amplify.

Bondholders presented a proposal to take control of Samarco Mineracao SA, a joint-venture between mining giants Vale SA and BHP Group Ltd. that’s under bankruptcy protection in Brazil, according to a plan filed in court.

The plan would slash the 24 billion reais ($4.9 billion) that Samarco said it owes the two companies to less than 960 million reais, according to Renato Franco, a partner at Integra, the consulting firm hired by the bondholders. Samarco listed about 50 billion reais in defaulted debt in its April 2021 bankruptcy filing.

An ad hoc committee of bondholders, representing 17 funds including Oaktree Emerging Market Debt Fund LP, offered Samarco creditors two options. One includes no discount on the face value of the debt, a 2% cash payment upfront and 38% converted into voting shares. Since those bondholders have about 20.6 billion reais of Samarco’s debt, and Vale and BHP would hold less than 960 million reais under their plan, creditors would take control of the firm. 

In this option, the voting shares could be sold in the future, through a private transaction or on the public markets, Franco said. The remaining 60% of the debt would be swapped into a new 10-year dollar bond paying interest rates as high as 10.5% a year, which would be capitalized in the first and second years, and decrease after that. 

Under the second option, creditors would have a 15% discount on the face value of the debt and the remaining 85% would be converted into an 18-year bond with interest rates no higher than 2.5% a year.

Samarco became unable to pay its debts after its waste dam collapsed in 2015, killing 19 people and almost destroying two villages in Mariana, Minas Gerais. The firm halted production, and it took until December 2020 before it was able to even partially restart operations. 

The creditors’ plan includes a proposal to speed up pellets and iron ore production at Samarco, at attempt to get the firm back to the 30 million tons per year it generated before the disaster, said Tito Martins, a former director at Vale SA who has been working as an adviser for bondholders. The idea is to double investments in 2023 and 2024 to $300 million a year, and get back to the previous production levels by 2026, three years before Samarco’s current plan.

Bondholders also propose making Samarco responsible for no more than $2.8 billion of the $8.4 billion that the bankruptcy-protection process allocates toward disaster repairs. Vale and BHP would pay for the rest. 

This is the first time creditors filed a restructuring plan for a company in Brazil, a possibility allowed under a new bankruptcy law, after a plan presented by the company was rejected in a meeting a month ago. The new plan must be approved at another meeting or through written and signed documents from creditors, said Marcos Pitanga, a lawyer hired by bondholders. 

This deal relates to the dam collapses in 2015 rather than the even more disastrous collapse in 2019 at a Vale facility.  The deal as laid out above sounds like a positive outcome for the creditors who will now gain control of significant iron-ore resources.

A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

Some of the topics discussed includes: relief rally was short lived on Jay Powell's statement yesterday, stocks and cryptos extend decline, oil pulls back, gold steady, many instruments testing the secular 1000-day trend mean.  

Norwegian gas sales are on course to test a record high this year as Europe seeks to reduce its dependence on top supplier Russia as soon as possible. 

Total exports from fields in the Nordic nation are poised to jump about 8% this year to 122 billion cubic meters, the government said in its updated outlook on Wednesday. The country sold similar volumes in 2017, a record year for exports.

The continent’s second-biggest supplier is pumping at full tilt, benefiting from record prices and higher demand than ever for its fuel. The European Union aims to curb imports from Russia by two thirds this year because of the war in Ukraine.

European prices spiked after Russia’s invasion in late February, deepening an energy crisis that started last year. Costs have since eased but they remain historically high and traders remain on the edge because of the uncertainty of flows and payment regimes. 

“High prices give the companies strong incentives to utilize the production capacity on the fields,” Petroleum and Energy Minister Terje Aasland said. “Companies are producing at full, or near full capacity.” 

Norwegian producers have tweaked operations at some fields, including reducing gas injections for oil recovery. Energy major Equinor ASA will also restart its Hammerfest LNG plant this month. The facility has been shut after a fire in late 2020.  

The extra volume would amount to an increase of about 9 billion cubic meters this year compared with 2021 sales. While every molecule counts, it’s just a fraction of Russia’s flows to the European Union, which exceeded 155 billion cubic meters last year. That was about 40% of the bloc’s total consumption. 

Europe has a chronic need to boost energy security. Importing from a friendly country, with a long history of sound governance like Norway, is infinitely preferable to relying on Russia. That’s great news for Norway’s balance of payments.

Current-SEC Chair Gary Gensler cuts this gordian knot by making the obvious remark that asset-backed stable coins are repackaging the securities held in the reserve, and so are derivatives hence themselves securities: ‘Make no mistake: It doesn't matter whether it's a stock token, a stable value token backed by securities, or any other virtual product that provides synthetic exposure to underlying securities ...these platforms — whether in the decentralized or centralized finance space — are implicated by the securities laws and must work within our securities regime.’

In the way of the Terra/Luna collapse, he reiterated this conviction today: ‘there’s a need to bring greater investor protection to these crypto markets ... central to that are crypto trading and lending platforms, where investors buy, sell and lend around $100 billion of crypto assets a day. The crypto-related events in recent weeks have highlighted yet again how important it is to protect investors in this highly speculative asset class.’

The abrupt collapse of a $60 billion stablecoin has raised eyebrows. There has been a lot of discussion about how and whether to regulate the sector, but the size of the market and the potential for significant losses by retail investors is creating urgency. Regulation of crypto securities is inevitable. Jurisdiction is irrelevant if a country’s own citizens can purchase. That also suggests full transparency on where deposits are being invested is inevitable.

The increase is more than double the pace of basic wage growth, squeezing consumer spending power at the sharpest pace on record. The pain is set to intensify, with the Bank of England predicting double-digit inflation by October when energy bills are almost certain to jump again. 

There was evidence of more generalized inflation, with a 6.7% jump in food and non-alcoholic drink prices. The cost of recreation and culture rose 5.9%, the largest increase since at least 2006, and restaurant and hotel prices were up 8%. Part of that was due to value added tax reverting to the normal rate after the pandemic. Furniture and household equipment rose 10.7%.

The cost-of-living crisis already has amplified the political debate about how to handle a series of shocks hitting the UK. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservatives government has targeted relief at those with jobs, while the Labour opposition is calling for an emergency budget to help pensioners and people on benefits. 

“Countries around the world are dealing with rising inflation,” Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak said in a statement. “We cannot protect people completely from these global challenges but are providing significant support where we can, and stand ready to take further action.”

The Pound came close to reversing yesterday’s rebound on global de-risking following Jerome Powell’s comments on persisting with policy tightening. Even though the price of oil was down $3 today, the weakness of the Pound has exacerbated the impact of the advance for European consumers. Brent crude in Pounds is still consolidating above the 2008 and 2012 peak. A sustained move back below £70 will be required to confirm a change of trend.

A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

Some of the topics discussed include: reversionary rally underway as China suggests support for the tech sector is forthcoming, dollar, gold and oil ease, bond yields continue to rise, high yield spreads continue to trend higher. Fed remains committed to tightening. 

The violent selloff has forced many systematic macro strategies, including trend followers and volatility-targeted funds, to slash equity holdings. Last week, their exposure fell to the bottom of a five-year range that even if stocks resume selling, their unwinding would be relatively subdued, according to Morgan Stanley. 

For instance, should the S&P 500 drop 5% in one day, the cohort would need to offload less than $20 billion of stocks in the follow week, analysts including Christopher Metli estimated. That’s down from an expected disposal of over $100 billion at the start of the year.

Goldman’s long/short hedge fund clients saw their gross leverage falling 12 percentage points during the week through Wednesday, the largest reduction over comparable periods sine at least 2016, according to data compiled by analysts including Vincent Lin. 

Light positioning by hedge funds and quants is among indicators watched by Goldman’s Scott Rubner to determine whether investors have capitulated. With cash holdings elevated in mutual funds and day traders retreating, one missing ingredient to call the all-clear is a reduction of stocks in US household holdings and retirement accounts, he says.

“Tracking this cohort is my single and most important focus from the lows here,” he wrote in a note last week. “We have not capitulated, it is very slow on the way out.” 

There is still a great deal of uncertainty about the trajectory of monetary policy and the continuing impact of the war in Ukraine. The challenge for investors is to determine if this has been adequately priced in by the pullback to date.

“People don’t need too strong an excuse to buy sterling right now,” said Geoffrey Yu, a strategist at BNY Mellon. “Even a modicum of good data or even data that isn’t as bad as previously expected can see them coming back because of valuations.”

The move accompanies a broader dollar decline, with the greenback underperforming all Group-of-10 currencies bar the Japanese yen as risk sentiment rebounded. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slid 0.5%, a third day of declines and the longest losing streak since March.

The Pound is rebounding from the lower side of a lengthy medium-term range just as the Dollar Index is encountering some resistance at the upper side of its range. As risk appetite returns there is scope for both to unwind their respective overextensions.

China’s top economic official gave an unusual public show of support for digital platform companies Tuesday, suggesting Beijing may be ready to let up on a year-long clampdown on technology giants as it battles a slowing economy.

The government will support the development of digital economy companies and their public listings, Vice Premier Liu He, who is President Xi Jinping’s most senior economic aide, said after a symposium with the heads of some of the nation’s largest private firms. Baidu Inc. founder Robin Li, Qihoo 360 Technology Co.’s Zhou Hongyu and NetEase Inc. chief William Ding were among the tech luminaries spotted at the forum, according to a video posted online.

Liu’s remarks reported by state media were short on detail but signal further easing of the regulatory risk for China’s technology behemoths including Baiduand Tencent Holdings Ltd., as investors await clues on whether a rout in their shares is near an end. The Hang Seng Tech Index rallied as much as 6% Tuesday on optimism the meeting would affirm Beijing’s intention to dial back some of its restrictions.

China’s 7-day repo rate continues to trend lower. That’s supports the view the government is supporting the economy in a tacit manner. Liu He turning up to the symposium was already good news for the tech sector. Receiving overt verbal support was a bonus. Together with the supports for first time home buyers announced yesterday, this suggests China is aware of the risks from tightening too much and is ready to be more generous.

A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

Some of the topics discussed include: checken and egg of tightening financial conditions and buy the dip instinct, energy and grains break out, gold steadies, increased demand for bonds as growth fears mount, bitcoin closes below $30,000

As I see it, the risk of recession, whether it is real or merely implied by an inversion of the yield curve, won’t deter the Fed from hiking rates higher faster or from injecting more volatility to build up negative wealth effects, and signs of a recession might not mean immediate rate cuts to ramp demand back up …

…cuts may have to wait until the Fed is certain that inflation is surely dead.

Back to the level of the stock market under the Fed call.

According to President Daly’s comments, the recent stock market correction and the rise in mortgage rates is “great”, but not enough (“want to see more”). Chair Powell also noted in his press conference that he wants to see further tightening in financial conditions still. At face value, that implies that the Fed won’t stop shaping expectations until we see more damage to stocks and bonds.

Rallies could beget more forceful pushback from the Fed – the new game…

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

This is a welcome elucidation of the “chicken and egg” argument I have been talking about the audio/video commentary.
 
If the stock market and other financial assets sell off, the Fed will believe their policies are working which reduces the need for further tightening. However, if investors believe tightening is less likely they will buy the dip which will convince the Fed their policies are not sufficiently tight.

The effects are visible. Farmers say the unexpected temperature spikes have affected their wheat harvest, a development that could potentially have global consequences given supply disruptions due to the Ukraine war.

The heat has also triggered an increase in power demand, leading to outages in many states and fears of a coal shortage.

Mr Modi also flagged the increased risk of fires due to rising temperatures.

And

D Sivananda Pai, director of the Institute for Climate Change Studies, points to other challenges apart from climate change - such as increasing population and the resulting strain on resources.

This, in turn, leads to factors that worsen the situation, such as deforestation and increasing use of transport.

"When you have more concrete roads and buildings, heat is trapped inside without being able to rise to the surface. This warms the air further," Mr Pai says.

And the cost of such extreme weather events is disproportionately borne by the poor.

Anyone who has suffered through a muggy August in London will be familiar with the heat well effect created by concrete structures and air conditioners pouring hot air into the street.

That’s for a country that does not typically get temperatures approaching 40 degrees. For India, where pre-monsoon heat waves are typical, the urgency to industrialise is creating some unique issues.

Deus Finance’s DEI token has lost its 1-to-1 peg to the dollar, becoming the latest failure of an algorithmic stablecoin during a period of crypto market stress.

DEI is currently trading at 70 cents, according to data tracker CoinGecko. With a market value of about $63.5 million, the token is tiny compared with the more than $18 billion TerraUSD stablecoin that shook crypto markets when it become depegged last week. 

Read more: Crypto Hedge-Fund Head Predicted Terra’s $60 Billion Implosion

Put out by Deus Finance, a marketplace for financial services, DEI is different from TerraUSD, or UST, in that it’s a fractional reserve stablecoin, backed by coin collateral, consisting of 20% DEUS tokens and 80% of other stablecoins, such as USDC.

Deus’s team is working to restore the peg, according to a Tweet.

The depegging comes several months after Deus Finance was hacked, with some coins stolen.

UST is currently trading at about 6 cents. Last week, even the world’s biggest stablecoin, Tether -- which is not algorithmic and claims to have full reserves -- lost its dollar peg before regaining it. Crypto bellwether Bitcoin is trading at less than $30,000, down from over its all-time high of almost $69,000 in November.

The TerraUSD coin is an algorithm based stablecoin, which relies on the value of its underlying token to support its value. That token, Luna, collapsed last week and took the stablecoin with it. The potential for contagion arises when stablecoins using money market instruments fail.

A link to this week's Big Picture Long-Term video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

Oil climbed as a global squeeze on refined products continued to pull fuel prices higher with Russian diesel exports falling sharply.  

West Texas Intermediate traded near $110 wrapping up another week of tumultuous trading where lowered liquidity exacerbated price moves. Diesel exports from Russia dropped in April from their prewar level as oil buyers seek to punish one of the world’s biggest suppliers. Investors have also been keeping a close eye on China as authorities in Beijing denied rumors that the city will go into lockdown even as new Covid-19 cases climbed.

Fuels are currently the bullish driver for crude, especially as Russian diesel exports drop, said Dennis Kissler, Senior Vice President of Trading, BOK Financial. “The path of least resistance still looks higher for all petroleum products as demand continues to outstrip supplies.”

Diesel and jet fuel prices have been making headlines this year because they are at record levels. The war in Ukraine and Europe’s reliance on Russia for 70% of its diesel have been blamed for this development. However, there is an additional consideration I have not seen mentioned elsewhere.

the bottom this time won't be a capitulatory puke, but more likely consistent selling which fades as it burns out, to wit:

... signs of a market bottom are unlikely to resemble traditional "capitulation" that’s played out in the last few years. Why? Because traditional capitulation is typically marked by a quick de-grossing by hedge funds + systematic macro strategies, where positioning is already light. Instead, the next leg of de-risking is likely to be more gradual, coming from asset allocators/real money/retail and is therefore likely slower to play out, making a precise bottom more difficult to call.

from a more tactical (i.e. very near term) standpoint, the bank writes that there are multiple metrics that suggest we could be closer to a bounce than before, including:

The magnitude of the drawdown in net and gross exposures (-33% for net and - 30% for gross) in N. America among L/S funds is now similar to the early 2016 and March 2020 declines

Retail flows in single-stocks have been very negative over the past 3 days, which has generally coincided with short-term lows over the past 6 months.

The drawdown in “risky” factors (e.g. high vol, small cap, low profitability) is one of the most extreme of the past 20+ years and the S&P has rallied over the following 1-3 months post hitting similar extremes

Buying of Defensives and selling of Cyclicals is also one of the most extreme with Staples vs. Discretionary in particular looking stretched

The significant declines seen in stocks and the return of P/E ratios to average readings have been sufficient to encourage some speculative value buying over the last couple of days. The other side of that argument is oil prices remain firm and the Fed intends to hike rates by an additional 100 basis points before the end of July. Rallies are hard to sustain when liquidity is contracting.

I was interested to see today that gold hit just below $1800 and your average buying price so far is at that level. You have had bids in the market for some time ...I wondered if they have been triggered with the $200 drop in the gold price in the last month. It feels like March 2020 when gold was swept up in the stock market declines in the rush to cash. Are we seeing a repeat now...in which case gold could make a swift recovery like it did then perhaps?

Thank you for this question which I’m sure will be of interest to the Collective. I also apologise for not speaking more about gold in yesterday’s audio commentary. It occurred to me last night that I had not mentioned gold in the broadcast and that was a glaring omission.

Eoin, your comment "I feel bombarded with podcasts, YouTube videos, analysts and reports telling me about the inevitability of AI and deep learning transforming the global economy" is important. This is typical of the initial excitement about any new technology. History shows it takes 'a generation' (20-25 years) for a new technology to go through its slow and expensive development phase, with many failures in the early years despite the hype, followed by disillusionment for several years, or a decade or so, before it actually begins to pay back. I presented the data at David's Markets Now many years ago. Gartner capture this in their Hype Curve/Cycle chart. The initial hype phase is where Venture Capitalists get involved and they aim to exit before the disillusion phase sets in. Investors in public markets have to await the third phase, when the technology matures and starts to be economic. We'll get there with AI / Deep Learning - but not quite yet!

Thank you for this grounded email and I completely agree. The promise of AI will be delivered upon but that doesn’t often equate to a smooth ride for investors which is the big challenge at present. High valuations and high interest rates don’t play well together.

A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

Some of the topcis discussed include: Dollar breaks higher, Yen strengthen, Bond yields contract. bitcoin tests secular trend mean, stocks weak as investors price in recession risk. 

Coinbase Global Inc., like the rest of the cryptocurrency market, is having a really tough week. Not filing-for-bankruptcy bad, but the biggest US crypto exchange did just mention the B-word in a regulatory filing, giving its customers a painful reminder of how bad things could get for them if Coinbase ever does get seriously distressed.

In its quarterly report, Coinbase added a risk disclosure: if the company were to file for bankruptcy, the court might treat customer assets that the exchange is custodian for -- their Bitcoin, Dogecoin or whatever -- as Coinbase’s assets. And they’d be at the back of the line for repayment, forcing normal people, unaccustomed to the ins and outs of federal bankruptcy court, to claw back their money along with everybody else owed money by the exchange.

It’s a huge amount at stake. Coinbase was custodian for $256 billion of customer money on March 31, according to the filing.

Chief Executive Officer Brian Armstrong quickly took to Twitter to elaborate, saying the company is not at risk of going bankrupt and that users’ funds are safe.

Segregated accounts didn’t save MF Global’s clients in 2019. It took six months to get two thirds of their money back and it’s not clear how successful efforts have been to recover the rest. Since the crypto markets are unregulated and Coinbase is an “exchange” rather than a broker, the funds are not truly segregated. The company might not be in imminent danger of going bust, but that only exacerbates the leverage to the bitcoin price. It’s a very binary bet.

From war to extreme weather, the world’s wheat crops are under threat, a view that’s being bolstered by a US report.

Production in Ukraine, one of the biggest growers, will fall by one-third compared to last year, according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast. Other major producers are battling drought, floods and heatwaves. In all, global stockpiles in the coming season will dwindle to a six-year low. 

The smaller wheat harvests and a slow start to the US planting season is risking more food inflation ahead. Hunger is already on the rise in many parts of the globe.

Food stockpiles are low after two years of pandemic lockdowns. The war in Ukraine is an additional complication and prices are already high. The wildcard in terms of supply is Russia where farmers have access to fertilizer and oil from domestic sources. No one is going to broadcast they are buying Russia grain but that supply will reach market as prices rise.

India’s faster-than-expected inflation print for April has pushed the pace of consumer-price rises above the benchmark bond yield by the most since 2020. The return of the negative real yield suggests the Indian debt may suffer a deeper selloff.

India’s real policy rate -- the spread between the central bank’s main rate and inflation -- has been negative for several months, like almost all emerging markets (China, Brazil and Indonesia are exceptions). But the latest inflation data has turned the market-determined real bond yield negative too.

India might just be paying the price for its hesitation to raise interest rates. The Reserve Bank surprised markets last week with a 40-bp hike, after previously saying it would stick with a dovish policy as consumption remained below pre-pandemic levels. It had hoped oil prices might come down, but crude prices remain above $100 a barrel and the nation’s consumer-price inflation is more broad-based, including items like clothing and footwear.

The upward pressure on inflation from the rising cost of commodity imports suggests the RBI will have no choice than to accelerate interest rate hikes. The Rupee has held a succession of lower rally highs since early 2021 and broke to a new all-time low today. Considering the strength of the US dollar, this has been a better performance than other regional currencies but that does not detract from the fact a weaker currency boosts inflation.

A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

Some of the topics discussed include: stagflation stalking markets, Dollar steady, bonds begin to steady, Apple & Microsoft break down and push NDX to new low, oil firms, gold steady, China begins to steady.  

This in turn takes us to an interesting observation by George Saravelos, Deutsche Bank AG’s global head of currency research, who says that “we are perhaps now reaching the tipping point where further financial conditions tightening will start to place more severe headwinds to how much more we can reprice the Fed.” This will result in the dollar becoming less responsive to risk-off due to more dovish implications for the Fed path. And while it’s still early stages, Saravelos argues that “the market is starting to behave as if we may be approaching this tipping point.”

Now, even if inflation does peak this year, that won’t mean central banks will exit their tightening path, but will adjust it accordingly. Just look at the Bank of England’s latest forward guidance and the divide within the voting committee. At the same time, and if we talk stagflation or recession, we should consider that the yen may attract haven flows once again given its low inflationary readings, Japan’s current surplus and so forth.

Today’s month over month CPI figure was 0.3%. Analysts expected 0.2% but the prior reading was 1.2%. That’s still a moderation in near-term inflation, even if it is still rising. Year over year the rate is still 8.3% which is in the middle of what was expected and the last reading.

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

COVID cases are finally coming down in Shanghai which is positive news for the domestic economy. China remains exposed to the risk of further outbreaks because of the size and age of the population and the reluctance to be vaccinated. That holds out the prospect of continued lockdown phases for the foreseeable future. That’s a recipe for volatility. 

Much more important, if TerraUSD fails it will be a blow to the hopes of many traditional financial institutions that rely on liquidity to maintain stability. That includes central banks, exchange-traded funds, mutual funds, derivatives clearinghouses, securities dealers and many others.

TerraUSD is an “algorithmic stablecoin,” meaning it attempts to maintain a $1 market price via an algorithm rather than traditional methods such as backing each token with an actual dollar. TerraUSD can be exchanged for $1 worth of another cryptocurrency, in this case Luna. Therefore, if the price of TerraUSD deviates from $1, arbitragers should force it back.

The Federal Reserve, although it doesn’t officially target the value of the dollar, can use a similar strategy if it wants to influence the currency’s value. If the value of the dollar falls either in terms of purchasing power or foreign-exchange rates, the Fed’s two main policy responses are to raise interest rates to make the dollar more attractive to hold, or to sell assets to soak up dollars, reducing the supply, and pushing up the price. TerraUSD uses mainly the second strategy, selling Luna to reduce the supply of TerraUSD.

The strategy relies on there being a liquid market for the asset being sold — mainly US Treasury securities for the Fed and Luna for TerraUSD. Unfortunately for the Fed, if the dollar’s value is falling, investors may not be enthusiastic about buying Treasuries, which pay off in future dollars and whose perceived credit may be impaired if too many have to be sold to soak up excess currency. TerraUSD has the same issue, the value of Luna is tied to the success of the Terra suite of products, which would be impaired by TerraUSD’s collapse

In a bull market leverage begets leverage. From the perspective of financial engineers there is no strategy that can’t be made better with leverage. Stablecoins are the crypto market’s version of money market funds. They aim to hold parity with the Dollar by buying near-cash items that pay a slightly higher yield than the Fed. Algorithmic stablecoins try to go one better and only trade in their own tokens. That’s great during a bull market. However, the value of any money market instrument is in its ability to redeem at par in times of stress. If it folds at the first sign of trouble it is not fit for purpose.