David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
Category - General

    What Your Face May Tell Lenders About Whether You're Creditworthy

    This article by Zhou Wei for the Wall Street Journal may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    In its lending business, meanwhile, Ping An says it uses its technology to analyze the faces of loan applicants in real time, searching for “micro-expressions” that reveal their emotional and psychological state. Such expressions typically occur within fractions of seconds and are hard for people to control, and loan officers make more accurate judgments on the applicants’ credibility based on this information, according to an article posted by Ping An on its official WeChat social-media account in China last year.

    For large loans, applicants often have to answer questions in an online video meeting that typically lasts 10 to 15 minutes. Ping An records and analyzes how the applicant answers questions, and looks for signs of eye-shifting or other suspicious behavior, which would be flagged by its system.

    Ping An in January said it has made more than 500 billion yuan worth of loans with the help of its micro-expression technology. It also said the technology has helped shorten its average loan-approval times to two hours from five days.

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    US Policy Mix Flips and Will Take the Dollar with It

    This article by Marc Chandler for Bannockburn Global Forex may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    The policy mix of tighter monetary policy and looser fiscal policy provides a steroid-like boost to currencies.   This is what the US had under Reagan-Volcker.  It is was the policy mix in Germany after the Berlin Wall fell that led to the ERM crisis of the early 1990s and then Maastricht Treaty and the euro.  It helped fuel the dollar's gains last year.  Now that policy mix is reversing.  Fiscal policy is tightening, and monetary policy is poised to loosen.  That policy mix is associated with under-performing currencies.  

    The third significant dollar rally since the end of Bretton Woods is in jeopardy.  Coordinated intervention marked the end of both the Reagan-Volcker and Clinton-Rubin dollar rallies.  Intervention in the foreign exchange market won't be necessary; the self-proclaimed "Tariff Man" has found another way the proverbial cat can be skinned.  

    The last phase of a significant dollar rally has been marked by the movement of interest rate differentials against the US.  This been happening.   The two-year differential between the US and Germany peaked last November a little above 355 bp, which appears to be a modern extreme. It finished last week below 250 bp, the lowest in more than a year.   Similarly, the US two-year premium peaked against the UK around the same time a little shy of 220 bp.  It is now approaching 125 bp.   Against Japan, last November, the US two-year premium of nearly 310 bp was the largest in 11 years.  It is threatening to break below 200 bp.  

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    Transcript of Felix Zulauf's interview by Grant Williams -

    Thanks to a subscriber for this summary of the discussion at the recent Mauldin conference which may be of interest. Here is a section:

    How to Keep Thieves From Stealing Your PIN at the ATM

    This article from the Wall Street Journal may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

    What’s more, no-name ATMs are often free-standing and not built into the wall, like those at banks. That means they’re easier to get inside of and thus more susceptible to skimming and other crimes, says Brian Krebs, who covers computer security and cyber crime at krebsonsecurity.com. (In fact, if you can see the top of an ATM, that’s a big warning sign, he says.)

    That said, third-party ATMs are hardly the only machines to look out for. Says Mr. Rosenberg: “I’m pretty sure every type of ATM has had skimmers on them.”

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    On Target June 11th 2019

    Thanks to Martin Spring for this edition of his ever-interesting report. Here is a section on China’s tech ambitions:

    The FT reports that the US ban on infotech trade with China could be a problem for Google as its Android system is “central to the smartphone market in China, which is bigger than Europe and the US combined, due to its use by Huawei and other [Chinese] phonemakers include Oppo and Xiaomi.”

    Chinese president Xi Jinping has spoken openly about his plans for China to gain global dominance in future high technologies in just SIX years’ time. Their foundation will be China’s capacity to design and manufacture cutting-edge semiconductor chips. $150 billion is being poured into achieving that. However, so far subsidies and tax breaks have only lifted China’s self-reliance in low-value chips.

    The Americans are clearly using the current “trade war” to hinder Xi’s ambitious plans by demanding that the Chinese cease their theft of intellectual property, and of using their negotiating power to force technology transfers as part of the price of allowing joint ventures to operate in their huge domestic market. 20 per cent of European companies doing business in China, for example, say they are compelled to hand over technology to Chinese partners.

    It’s unlikely the Americans will succeed in getting the Chinese to play fair. Agreeing to trade-balancing deals would be one thing. Agreeing to stop their massive co-ordinated attack on the heights of leading-edge industries would be something else. It’s certain they’ll renege on any promises about that they have to give.

    Ironically, cutting Chinese access to American components and technology, or merely threatening to do so, is the strongest incentive of all to stimulate Chinese development of high-tech sectors.

    Investors have generally taken the view that the ugly contest between Trump and Xi will be resolved in a “deal” that the American president can claim to be a victory, but Xi can present as a fair agreement. That still seems to be the likely outcome.

    As for the arms race… that still has much further to run. It will be a key part of the long-term strategic contest between the hegemon and its fast-growing global challenger.

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    China Sets Yuan Fixing Stronger Than Expected in Sign of Defense

    This article by Tian Chen and Ran Li for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    "Forget about the psychological 7 level," said Khoon Goh, head of research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., adding that the fixing will stay stronger than 6.9 before the Group of 20 summit. "Today’s fixing sends a clear message that the authorities are still intent on keeping the yuan stable, and
    have no desire to see it weaken further."

    Trump Says He’ll Raise China Tariffs If Xi Won’t Meet at G-20 U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping may meet at the G-20 summit in Osaka this month. Traders will be closely watching the gathering to gauge the outlook for trade negotiations and the yuan.

    "We expect the Chinese authorities to continue defend 7 in the foreseeable future," said Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Plc, adding that a negative outcome at the G-20 summit wouldn’t warrant a change in this stance. "The PBOC may step up the size and frequency of bill issuance should the yuan come under greater depreciation pressures."

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    BOE Hike Warnings Go Unheeded as Rate Cuts Seen as More Likely

    This article by David Goodman for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section

    Bank of England policy makers and investors are taking contrasting views of the U.K. economy as official warnings of potential interest rate hikes clash with market predictions for a cut.

    The market moves are partly based on a belief that the U.S. Federal Reserve is on course to reverse its recent hiking path, forcing central banks around the world to follow suit, but also reflect the drastically different Brexit outcome built into investors’ outlook.

    While the BOE’s forecasts -- including its hawkish view of longer-term inflation -- are based on the assumption of a smooth Brexit process, investors have the luxury of being more nimble, and so have increasingly priced in the risk of a no-deal departure in October. That’s not without reason, since no deal is a policy advanced by a number of potential candidates to replace Theresa May as prime minister this summer. There are also nascent signs that BOE officials are ending their year of unanimity, with some edging closer to the market’s view.

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