David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
Category - India

    Modi Says India Can't Afford to Go Slow on New Infrastructure

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    “Every department makes its own plans and typically the left hand doesn’t know what the right is doing,” Modi said, citing the example of how new roads were laid only to be dug up later by the water pipes or the telecom department. “These silos result in wastage of budgetary resources and India can no longer afford these bottlenecks,” he said.

    The initiative comes as India targets spending $1.5 trillion in roads, railways, ports and gas pipelines, which are key for attracting investments and creating jobs in Asia’s third-largest economy as it recovers from a pandemic-induced downturn.

    The master plan aims to nearly double the network of highways to over 200,000 kilometers and the number of airports to 220 by March 2025, and double the length of gas pipelines to 34,500 km, among others, during that period.

    The International Monetary Fund sees India’s gross domestic product expanding 9.5% in the year to March after contracting 7.3% last year. While the forecast is for the economy to grow 8.5% next year, the outlook depends on the nation’s ability to create jobs and boost consumption, which accounts for some 60% of GDP. For that, India needs investments and infrastructure to attract businesses.

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    Chris Wood On India's Property Cycle, Capex And Risks Facing Stock Market

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    The structural bull story of the Indian markets, Wood said, remains in place with growing evidence that a new residential property cycle has commenced after a seven-year downturn despite the setback triggered by the delta Covid-19 wave.

    “Pre-sales across the top seven cities rose 23% month-on-month and 41% year-on-year in July. Property registrations, indicating completed transactions, for July-September were up 45% in Mumbai and 56% in Delhi compared with the levels prevailing in 2019,” he said.

    Also, unsold inventory is coming down sharply. “The inventory level in the National Capital Region, after stripping out stalled projects, has declined from a peak of 50 months of sales in October 2017 to 33 months.”

    Affordability, according to him, too, remains at historically attractive levels. The housing affordability ratio, measured as home loan payment as a percentage of income, declined from 53% in FY12 to a record low of 27% in FY21, the report said. “This is clearly very different from, say, China.”

    Greed & Fear has a 17% allocation to the property sector in the Indian long-only portfolio, while it “resists for now the temptation of putting any China developers into the China long-only portfolio”.

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    Email of the day on slower Chinese growth:

    Think, you may find interesting this Financial Times story that looks into the longer-term consequences of Evergrande saga - https://on.ft.com/3io45gH (open link). It seems that the Chinese real estate market finally (at long, long last) is crumbling, not without help of the country leaders. If it is so and given the fact that the property market accounts for 29% of the Chinese GDP (and land sales to developers, for the third of local governments’ revenues), the economic growth seems to slow dramatically in the coming years. What could be implications, in your view? We all remember that China and its industrialization were the major drivers of the global commodities supercycle in the 21st century. Also, every time China has got into trouble, the Communist party used the same recipe “more investments in infrastructure and construction, more leverage. If now China and its property sector grow much more slowly, not to mention possible contraction of the latter, it will need much less metals and materials, and also possibly less gas (to power plants and send it to homes) and even oil (fewer working trucks and construction equipment). What do you think?

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    BRIC By Brick: The Demographic Dream Unravels

    This article by Shankkar Aiyar for Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:

    The arc of electoral expediency demands a saleable alibi, a villain, and a promise of prosperity at the end of the rainbow. The rash of legislation and the promise to expand the enclave of reservations may at best serve as a placebo. The spectre which could come to haunt India is up ahead. What is important to recognise is the scale of the challenge. India’s 2020 population is estimated at over 1.39 billion of which 67% or nearly 925 million are of working age. By 2050 India’s population will touch 1.63 billion – and the working-age population is expected to touch 1.11 billion.

    Demography is not destiny. India’s politicians are right to fear the looming spectre of rising working-age population and unemployment but both the cause and consequence are of their making. India needs structural reforms to propel growth. Effectively the demographic dream rests on the hope that India’s rulers would tune policy to empower the willing millions. Without growth, politicians will only be left with poverty and promises to redistribute.

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    Deadly Delta Variant Starts to Ripple Through Emerging Markets

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here are some soundbites from regional analysts:

    "The U.K. has shown that the variant is not such a health challenge if people have been vaccinated. We are concerned that Australasia and the smaller markets in Asean could continue to be impacted. We remain cautious on Asean equities. Watching for any sharp increase in Covid cases in Asean”

    Kelvin Wong, an analyst at CMC Markets (Singapore) Pte.: “Tactically, it is likely to be more of a rotation play that may last into the upcoming third quarter where high-quality technology stocks may outperform over cyclicals”

    “Hence for Southeast Asian equities that tends to be heavily weighted toward cyclical/financials and the external sector such as tourism are likely to underperform, for example Singapore’s Straits Times Index”

    “The major key support to watch on the STI will be at 2,950/2,920 which also coincides with the 200-day moving average”

    Alan Richardson, a senior portfolio manager at Samsung Asset Management (HK) Ltd. “It’s a speed bump that could slow the speed of the recovery but doesn’t change the direction to a post-Covid economy. The delta variant should increase the urgency for countries to reach three-quarters immunization”

    Paul Mackel, global head of FX research at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong: Market is watching closely the recent Covid resurgence as it has caused short-term depreciation of some currencies

    “But the elephant in the room is whether the dollar has bottomed or not” and “it’s not yet. But if the dollar is indeed getting stronger and the Fed is becoming more hawkish, it could challenge the outlook of some Asian currencies”

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    India Shifts 50,000 Troops to China Border in Historic Move

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    "The current situation on the border between China and India is generally stable, and the two sides are negotiating to resolve relevant border issues," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told a regular press briefing in Beijing Monday in response to a question about troop deployment. "In this context, the words, deeds and military deployments of relevant military and political leaders should help ease the situation and increase mutual trust between the two sides, not the other way around."

    The fear now is that a miscalculation could lead to an even deadlier conflict. Several recent rounds of military-diplomatic talks with China have made minimal progress toward a return to the quiet status quo that had prevailed along the border for decades.

    “Having so many soldiers on either side is risky when border management protocols have broken down,” said D. S. Hooda, a lieutenant general and former Northern Army commander in India. “Both sides are likely to patrol the disputed border aggressively. A small local incident could spiral out of control with unintended consequences.”

    The northern region of Ladakh — where India and China clashed several times last year — has seen the largest increase in troop levels, three of the people said, with an estimated 20,000 soldiers including those once engaged in anti-terrorism operations against Pakistan now deployed in the area. The reorientation means India at all times will have more troops acclimatized to fight in the high-altitude Himalayans, while the number of troops solely earmarked for the western border with Pakistan will be reduced.

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