David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
Category - General

    Aliens Are (Probably) Not Harassing the U.S. Navy

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    Starting in the 1950s, as UFO sightings began proliferating across the U.S., both the Air Force and the CIA tried to conceal their interest in the matter. They did so in part because they feared that the Soviets were trying to sow hysteria and wanted to calm the public, but they also knew that many of the sightings were of top-secret U.S. spy planes. In the end, such deceptions were counterproductive. Nobody believed the denials, the government lost credibility, and the hysteria only grew. An internal CIA review in 1997 found that the agency’s duplicity only added “to a growing sense of public distrust.”

    That skepticism is one reason why, in the decades since, garden-variety military incidents and mishaps have repeatedly been transformed into galactic conspiracies believed by a shockingly high percentage of Americans. With trust in the U.S. government once again at a low ebb, misleading the public with regard to UAPs would be a serious mistake.

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    Eurozone in Double-dip Recession as Mediterranean Economies Risk Another Lost Summer

    This article from The Telegraph may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    But Robert Alster at Close Brothers Asset Management warned of a divide between industrial economies in the north and tourist-reliant nations in the south, despite the start of UK tourism to Portugal. This could spark a return to the two-speed Europe which raised questions over the stability of the bloc after the financial crisis.

    Mr Alster said: “The risk now is that the north/south divide continues to widen. Germany’s economic growth is not far behind the UK’s, with its vaccination programme set to overtake, whereas Spain’s economy has been hardest hit,” he said.

    “The northern countries have benefited from strong manufacturing growth, with the US and China driving global demand, whereas the Southern countries are on tenterhooks to see whether the European tourism season can go ahead.”

    Two consecutive quarters of contraction mean the currency area is officially in recession again, despite not fully recovering from the initial shock of Covid.

    GDP remains more than 4pc below its pre-pandemic peak at the end of 2019.

    Employment fell by 0.3pc in the first quarter of 2021, meaning the number of people in work is still almost 3.6m below its pre-Covid level.

    Jack Allen-Reynolds at Capital Economics said the jobs market should soon start to recover too, but that the rebound in hiring will probably be quite slow.

    He said: "Many firms will be able to raise output by increasing employees’ working hours before they start taking on more staff."

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    Averting Climate Crisis Means No New Oil or Gas Fields, IEA Says

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    Reducing emissions to net zero -- the point at which greenhouse gases are removed from the atmosphere as quickly as they’re added -- is considered vital to limit the increase in average global temperatures to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. That’s seen as the critical threshold if the world is to avoid disastrous climate change.

    But it’s a path that few are following. Government pledges to cut carbon emissions are insufficient to hit “net zero” in the next three decades and would result in an increase of 2.1 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, the IEA said.

    “This gap between rhetoric and action needs to close if we are to have a fighting chance of reaching net zero by 2050,” the agency said. Only an “unprecedented transformation” of the world’s energy system can achieve the 1.5 degrees Celsius target.

    The IEA’s road map appears to be at odds with climate plans laid out by Europe’s top three oil companies -- BP Plc, Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Total SA. They all have targets for net-zero emissions by 2050, but intend to keep on seeking out and developing new oil and gas fields for many years to come.

    “No new oil and natural gas fields are needed in our pathway,” the IEA said. If the world were to follow that trajectory, oil prices would dwindle to just $25 a barrel by mid-century, from almost $70 now.

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    SGD Gains as Stock Rally Outweighs Virus Fear

    This note from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers.

    The Singapore dollar gains as buoyant Asian equities outweigh concern over the spread of coronavirus infections in the city state.

    USD/SGD falls 0.2% to 1.3335 after closing up 0.3% on Monday
    MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index advances 1%
    Govt bonds gained across the curve on Monday, with the 10-year yield down 2bps to 1.52%
    HSBC sees more room for underperformance of SGD rates versus USD rates over the next few days, according to a note on Monday

    FX swaps and front-end SGD rates have shifted higher as tighter social distancing measures reduced the odds that the Monetary Authority of Singapore would tighten its currency policy stance later this year

    The highly transmissible strain of Covid-19 that surfaced in India has become more prominent among Singapore’s growing number of unlinked cases
    An air travel bubble between Singapore and Hong Kong has been delayed
    The World Economic Forum canceled the annual meeting it was planning to hold this August in Singapore

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    Square Halts Bitcoin Purchases After Loss, Financial News Says

    This note from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers.

    Jack Dorsey’s Square is not planning on buying more bitcoin for its corporate treasuries after losing
    $20m on a $220m investment in the cryptocurrency last quarter, Financial News reports, citing CFO Amrita Ahuja.

    * Bitcoin represents about 5% of Square’s cash on hand
    * NOTE: Square Revenue More Than Triples, Driven by Bitcoin Sales
     

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    Gold Miners Rise With Prices on Weaker Dollar, Inflation Worry

    This note from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers.

    Earlier, gold was buoyed by signs that money managers and exchange-traded fund investors are turning more positive on the precious metal
    Gold spot price was up as much as 1.3%, silver +2.8% intraday; U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell as much as 0.2%
    Precious metal miners intraday gainers include HL which rose as much as 15%, EDR CN +11%, GGD CN +11%, CDE +8.9%, FR CN +7.4%, K CN +6.1%, FVI CN +6.5%
    Goldman said in a note that “gold tends to perform well when realized inflation is elevated and rising, while the dollar suffers, especially as the Fed stays on hold”
    Meanwhile, copper miners also got a boost as price climbed on Monday, lifted by concerns of supply disruptions in Chile and signs that Chinese demand is picking up
    Some of the copper/base metals miner that gained intraday include TKO CN, FCX, FM CN
    TECK also gained, which was partially helped by rise in coal equities on higher natgas prices

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    Email of the day on India's demographics