David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
Category - China

    Apple Falls on Report That China Agencies Are Barring iPhone

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    China also was one of the highlights of Apple’s results last quarter, helping offset a generally sluggish period. The company is preparing to unveil its latest iPhones next week, setting the stage for a holiday quarter that is invariably its biggest sales period of the year. 

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    Huawei Chip Shows US Curbs Are Porous, Not Useless

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:

    It’s highly unlikely Chinese chipmakers can squeeze more out of old tools to get them beyond 5nm, which means they’ll be stuck while foreign rivals continue to advance. And if they do make further breakthroughs, the US and its allies have plenty of ways to tighten up their curbs, including broadening the scope of the equipment ban and adding materials to the list. 

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    Colin Huang Adds $4.5 Billion in Wealth as PDD Shares Surge

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest.

    PDD in recent years has used promotions to grab market share from more established Chinese rivals including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and JD.com Inc. In an attempt to replicate that success abroad, it created Temu, which was introduced with much fanfare during this year’s Super Bowl.

    Since it launched last year, Temu has exploded into one of the top US apps, targeting cash-strapped Americans with cheap unbranded products shipped directly from Guangzhou, China. In just seven months, the app has been downloaded 50 million times.

    The roll-out hasn’t been without hiccups. Temu is burning through money and squeezing its suppliers in a bid to take on Amazon.com Inc. It’s also involved in lawsuits with rival Shein over antitrust matters.

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    Markets Show China Needs a Stimulus 'Bazooka' to Woo Investors

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    “The measures over the past weekend are not enough to stem the downward spiral” and their impact will be short lived if not followed by measures for supporting the real economy, Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc., wrote in a note. “Without additional and more aggressive policy stimulus, these stock-markets-focused policies alone have little sustainable positive impact.”

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    Run It Cold: Why Xi Jinping Is Letting China's Economy Flail

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    But where Biden has opted to run his economy hot, spending trillions of dollars on household stimulus and infrastructure to goose the economy, Xi is running his cold in a bid to finally break China’s addiction to fueling growth with speculative apartment construction and low-return projects funded by opaque local borrowing. If China is a “ticking time bomb,” Xi’s aim is to defuse it.

    The clash of economic philosophies between the world’s two largest economies is already shifting investment flows and may delay the date at which China overtakes the US, or perhaps mean that moment will never arrive. The risk for Xi and his team, led by Premier Li Qiang and Vice Premier He Lifeng, is that the determination to avoid excessive stimulus undermines confidence across the nation’s 1.4 billion people. 

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    China Halts Youth Jobs Data, Stoking Transparency Concerns

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    The move is the latest example of how President Xi Jinping’s government is limiting access to information in order to more closely guard data it deems sensitive and manage the narrative about the weakening economy.

    China has over the past year limited access to corporate data, court documents, academic journals and raided expert networks serving businesses, hampering investors’ ability to assess the economy. Officials have also been downplaying economic risks like deflation, with some Chinese-based analysts saying they were instructed by regulators and their companies not to discuss the matter publicly.

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    JPMorgan Sees 'Vicious Cycle' as Top China Trust Misses Payment

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    Missed payments on multiple high-yield investment products by a major Chinese shadow lender may trigger a “vicious cycle” for property developers’ financing and more delinquencies for trust products, JPMorgan Chase & Co. warns.

    Liquidity stress is intensifying for indebted developers and their non-bank creditors after a unit of Zhongzhi Enterprise Group Co., one of China’s largest private wealth managers, failed to deliver on-time payments for multiple products, the US bank’s analysts including Katherine Lei wrote in a report Monday.  

    About 2.8 trillion yuan ($386 billion), or 13% of China’s total trust assets, may see rising default risks, given their exposure to the property industry and local government debt, the report says. Up to 80% of local government financing vehicles may not be able to repay their debt principals, JPMorgan estimated.

    “The trust defaults may set off a vicious cycle on POE (privately-owned enterprise) developers’ onshore debt,” the analysts wrote. “This follows that rising concern of developer defaults weakens investment sentiment and, as a result, trust companies may not be able or willing to roll over existing real estate-related products.”

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    Earthquake in East China Injures 21, Wrecks 126 Buildings

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    A 5.5-magnitude earthquake that hit the Eastern Chinese province of Shandong in the early hours of Sunday caused the collapse of 126 buildings and injured at least 21 people, according to early reports from state media.

    The quake struck the county of Pingyuan in the Dezhou city at 2:33am Sunday, Xinhua News Agency reported. No leaks were found in oil and gas pipelines and power supply was normal, the report said. 

    State-run CCTV later said the quake may have had a maximum magnitude of 7 at a depth of 10 kilometers and warned that there may be more casualties, citing data from the China Earthquake Administration. 

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    Xi's China Markets Lifeline Raises Hope Rally Can Hold This Time

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    They’re betting a more forceful pro-growth tone from the top will be enough to fuel a tradeable rally — and may auger more success in tackling China’s wide array of challenges from mountains of local government debt to a slumping housing market.

    “Clearly, markets have been disappointed as they anticipated more rapid improvements, but they are now beginning to rationalize their growth expectations,” said Andrew McCaffery, global chief investment officer at Fidelity International. “Our view is that this somewhat unexciting period will eventually give way to a more positive market tone.”

    The big question is whether the follow-through from authorities will sustain the rebound. Brief bursts of optimism as China emerged from strict Covid restrictions have repeatedly turned into losses, making Chinese markets among the region’s worst performers amid a stream of grim economic data.

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    In London, New York and Paris, a Giant Office Bet Goes Wrong

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    Investors have also been shielded slightly by Europe’s approach to real-estate valuations, which doesn’t take market sentiment into account. With sales largely frozen, there have been few deals to measure the true decline in values. Inflation-linked rent increases have helped as well.

    Nonetheless, opportunists are circling, ready to offer expensive new debt to refinance buildings whose owners can’t inject capital. Oaktree and other alternative-finance providers have held talks with Korean asset managers about large loan facilities to let landlords restructure investments, according to a person familiar with the discussions. Oaktree declined to comment.

    Funds under pressure to extend the maturity of their borrowings are looking to inject more capital or inviting mezzanine investment rather than dumping assets on the cheap, says Yoon at Savills, who adds that a few have pulled sales. Increasingly, however, owners are following No. 1 Poultry’s path and having another crack at selling after several failed attempts last year — as seen with the rush for the exit in London.

    In Seoul, meanwhile, there’s deepening unease about how the endgame will play out for domestic investors. “With overseas commercial real-estate assets declining, there are significant concerns about distress,” says Oh.

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