Apple Falls on Report That China Agencies Are Barring iPhone
Comment of the Day

September 06 2023

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Apple Falls on Report That China Agencies Are Barring iPhone

This article may be of interest. Here is a section:

China also was one of the highlights of Apple’s results last quarter, helping offset a generally sluggish period. The company is preparing to unveil its latest iPhones next week, setting the stage for a holiday quarter that is invariably its biggest sales period of the year. 

Eoin Treacy's view

Apple has had a Teflon-like ability to avoid censure in China despite being one of the most public examples of the USA’s global technology reach. That has been one of the company’s greatest successes. They have managed to rise above the fray and continued to grow sales despite an increasingly taut relationship between the USA and China. It is worth considering whether that is still possible as semiconductors becomes pieces in the unfolding great power competition.
I have been bearish of Apple for several months because I don’t think the share is worth $3 trillion. I am also wary of the wide overextension relative to the 1000-day MA and the 3-year repurchase cycle of the iPhone market. Many people bought new phones in 2021 and are unlikely to be in the market for an upgrade until 2024.

For example, I bought a new phone in November 2021. The battery still has 86% charging capacity which is hardly noticeable. It will be much more of a nuisance by this time next year.  Today’s downward dynamic suggests a lower high and increases potential a deeper correction is unfolding. 

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