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Found 8 results for Technology
November 20 2017

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

The Chart Seminar

Eoin Treacy's view -

It is always a pleasure to meet subscribers but doubly so when we get to spend two days together discussing the outlook for psychological makeup of the market, where we are in the big cycles and which sectors are leading and which are showing relative strength. I had three big takeaways from last week’s seminar in London.

As anyone who has attended the seminar will know, I do not have examples but offer delegates the opportunity to dictate the direction of the conversation. That ensures the subject matter is relevant to what they are interested in and also highlights the fact that subject matter is applicable to all markets where an imbalance between supply and demand exists. The second benefit of allowing delegates to pick the subject matter is that it is offers a window into what is popular in markets right now and what might be getting overlooked. 

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August 30 2016

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Ports, a Sign of Altered Supply Chains

This article from the Wall Street Journal may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

“The running joke going around is that flat is the new growth,” said Jett McCandless, chief executive of transportation-Technology startup project44.

Freight volumes are stagnating despite strong consumer spending, which rose for a fourth-straight month in July. The problem for traditional retailers: More of those dollars are being spent online, or on entertainment and services such as health care.

Many retailers are stuck with large amounts of unsold goods as a result, reducing their need to import more merchandise. Even after a year of attempting to slim down inventories, retailers’ ratio of inventories to sales, a measure of excess stocks, touched 1.5 in June, close to a seven-year high, according to the Census Bureau. In their most recent earnings reports, Target and Lowe’s reported inventories up more than 4% over the same period last year.

J.C. Penney is placing “slightly smaller orders…or holding back quite a bit” to reduce inventories, Mike Robbins, J.C. Penney’s executive vice president for supply chain, told investors in June. The company has reduced the size of some orders at the beginning of major shopping seasons by as much as 70%.

The focus on reducing inventories is proving to be a drag on growth because it signals that businesses are spending less, and might be pessimistic about future demand. Inventory drawdowns cut second-quarter growth by 1.26 percentage points, to just 1.1%.

Shipping lines are struggling to plan their routes as order volumes become more difficult to predict, said Niels Erich, spokesman for a group of 15 major shipping lines known as the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement. In the past, carriers could count on the peak summer months to make up for slower winter trade.


Eoin Treacy's view -

There is no doubt that the disintermediation which characterises online retail has a deflationary impact on how economic growth is measured because it inhibits the velocity of money. I do not view it as a coincidence that the Velocity of M2 has been contracting since 1997 when the internet began to have an impact on the retail sector. 

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August 05 2016

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Bristol-Myers Plummets as Drug Misses Key Lung-Cancer Goal

This article by Cynthia Koons for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

“This is a major surprise -- possibly the biggest clinical surprise of my career,” Evercore ISI analyst Mark Schoenebaum, who recommends holding Bristol-Myers stock, wrote in a note. “Investors had high expectations for this trial.”

The results reflected a risky but potentially lucrative bet by Bristol-Myers, highlighting a difference in strategy with Merck. By designing its study to include patients with lower levels of a key biomarker thought to predict response to the drug, Bristol-Myers was aiming at a far larger market for Opdivo. Merck’s Keytruda trial, meanwhile, focused on a smaller subset with high levels of the biomarker, called PD-L1 -- fewer patients, but a better chance of success.

Opdivo didn’t meet its primary goal of lengthening progression-free survival in patients with previously untreated advanced non-small cell lung cancer, compared with chemotherapy, Bristol-Myers said in a statement. The New York-based company is working on completing an evaluation of the late-stage trial’s results.

Bristol-Myers Chief Executive Officer Giovanni Caforio said the company is now focused on combination therapies, which could potentially create a better outcome for the group of patients that don’t get results on drugs like Opdivo alone.

“We have a very broad development program in lung cancer and we are answering a number of very important questions,”

Caforio said in a phone interview Friday. “The role of monotherapy might be limited to a very small subset of patients in the first-line setting, which makes our program now ideally suited to address the next question, which is: ‘What is the role of combination therapy?”’ That will come from a study that analysts said would likely read out in 2018.


Eoin Treacy's view -

As a major BioTechnology company Bristol Myers Squibb benefitted enormously from being in a position to acquire promising research in the aftermath of the TMT bubble in the 1990s. That has led it to develop a broad spectrum product range that is cash flow positive and has allowed the share to hold a progression of higher reaction lows despite the turmoil that has affected the biotech sector from last year. 

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January 05 2016

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

The Last Innings

Thanks to a subscriber for this report from Goldman Sachs which may be of interest. Here is a section: 

While it is hard to gauge the extent to which these three factors have slowed this recovery we believe that they have had some impact. The long-term benefits of information Technology will likely more than offset such short-term disruptions to fixed asset investments. Similarly, we think the drag from offshoring to China has run its course as China has become a less competitive exporter.

With respect to the excess capacity from China and the drag on global growth, we believe that China’s ongoing investments in new industries such as airplanes and arms will affect the profitability of other multinational companies, reduce their prospective growth trajectories and indirectly lower growth in fixed asset investments.

Finally, we conclude with some data from the seminal work on financial crises by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, which shows that the recoveries from financial crises are systematically more muted.44 What is most relevant in the context of our cautiously optimistic outlook for growth and financial markets is the fact that in the 10-year windows following severe banking crises that Reinhart and Rogoff examined, growth picked up substantially in the second five year period relative to the first. In the post-WWII era, on average, developed economies grew 2.1 percentage points faster in the second five-year period relative to the first five years after the onset of the crisis. Similarly, emerging market economies grew an average 3.2 percentage points faster.


Eoin Treacy's view -

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

The news headlines are afire with tales of terrorism, war, environment disaster and human misery and yet the stock market has been rallying for more than six years. There is no doubt geopolitical tensions have increased and the Fed is raising rates, from incredibly low levels, for the first time in almost a there is some justification for anxiety. However that does not mean all stocks are performing in a similar manner. 

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June 08 2015

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

From cars to power grids: battery technology from Daimler is accelerating the transition to renewable energy generation

This article from Daimler highlights its entry into the domestic and commercial energy storage sectors. Here is a section:

Daimler is entering into business in the field of stationary energy storage plants with its one hundred percent subsidiary Deutsche ACCUmotive. The first industrial-scale lithium-ion unit is already on the grid and is being operated by the partner companies The Mobility House AG and GETEC Energie AG. For business with private customers in the area of energy storage in Germany, Daimler AG is planning to collaborate with EnBW AG. Daimler is also aiming to enter into cooperation with other sales and distribution partners both in Germany and at international level. "Mercedes-Benz energy storages provide the best confirmation that lithium-ion batteries Made in Germany have a viable future," says Harald Kröger, Head of Development Electrics/Electronics & E-Drive Mercedes-Benz Cars. "With our comprehensive battery expertise at Deutsche ACCUmotive we are accelerating the transition to sustainable energy generation both on the road and in the field of power supply for companies and private households. The Technology that has proven its worth over millions of kilometres covered in the most adverse conditions, such as extreme heat and cold, also offers the best credentials for stationary use. We have been gathering initial experience in this field since 2012."

Eoin Treacy's view -

Daimler was in the news last month for its introduction of driverless haulage vehicles to Nevada following the state’s legislation on autonomous vehicles. The company’s entry into the domestic and commercial energy storage sectors is equally ground breaking and suggests it has ambitions of being a pioneer in the future of transportation and energy storage. 

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July 17 2014

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

US Dividend Contenders

Eoin Treacy's view -

Following on from yesterday’s addition of a section for the US Dividend Champions to the Chart Library, I created a section for the US Dividend Contenders today. Unlike the Dividend Aristocrats which demand 25 years of consecutive increases as well as a market cap and liquidity provision, the Champions and Contenders only look at records of increasing dividends. In the case of the Champions this is at least 25 consecutive years and between 7 and 24 years for the Contenders. 

The US Dividend Contenders represent an interesting universe of companies where banks, utilities, insurance, MLPs and REITS dominate. This list also highlights the increasingly large number of Technology companies that have maintained solid records of dividend increases over the last decade. 


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June 12 2014

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

S&P/TSX Dividend Aristocrats Review

Eoin Treacy's view -

A company needs to increase dividends for at least 5 years in order to gain access to the Canadian Dividend Aristocrats. For a country with such a wide array of income bearing securities, the time hurdle for entry is lower than other jurisdictions and highlights the fact that while income trust structures pay out high percentages of their profits, those dividends can be highly variable. 

The Canadian list is the only one of the Dividend Aristocrat groups that has a substantial weighting of banks and mining companies. This is a testament both to the country’s sound financial system and the size and maturity of its resources sector. The Total Return Index’s uptrend has picked up pace since October and while it is becoming increasingly overextended relative to the 200-day MA, a break in the progression of higher reaction lows would be required to signal mean reversion is underway.

List of the current and former constituents can be found in the International Equity Library. 

Some of the instruments with interesting chart patterns include:


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June 11 2014

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Pan Asia Dividend Aristocrats Review

Eoin Treacy's view -

In order to gain access to the S&P Pan Asia Dividend Aristocrats a company must increase its dividend for at least 7 consecutive years. S&P made constituents of the Index freely available until 2011 but then decided to make them proprietary. As a result in reviews of the sector over the last few years I have been limited to using out of date information. Happily, S&P have changed their policy and the constituent data is available once more.

The Index still has 57 members but there have been 31 changes. The number of Australian and Indian companies has decreased while the Japanese and Chinese weightings have increased. The Philippines and Indonesia are no longer represented while South Korea only has only one member.

The performance of the Index is quite different from either the US or European equivalents; highlighting the more difficult trading environment evident in Asia over much of the last 18 months; with the exception of Japan last year. 

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