David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
Category - General

    Email of the day on a physical silver shortage

    You can't make this stuff up!!!

    Once per month, I have been purchasing a roll of 20 silver eagles from a major ebay company.

    on July 22, I purchased a roll of eagles. When I received NO email saying it was sent (with a tracking #}, I called up the company on 7/27.stating that if I did not hear from them by 7/28, I would file a complaint with PayPal [no one answered; went to voicemail]. On Sunday, I filed the complaint. TODAY, PAYPAL WROTE ME THAT THE COMPANY WILL REFUND MY PAYMENT!!!

    One thing is obvious-THEY CANNOT GET SILVER EAGLES!!!!!!

    YESTERDAY, I WENT TO A LOCAL COIN SHOW- NO ONE WAS SELLING SILVER EAGLES; IN THE PAST MANY ROLLS OF EAGLES WERE AVAILABLE.

    MY CONCLUSION, I AM LOADING UP ON AGQ, THE 2X SILVER ETF,

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    China: We Won't Use Nuclear Weapons First in a War

    This article by David Axe for the NationalInterest.org may be of interest. Here is a section:

    China has reaffirmed its policy of never being the first in a conflict to use nuclear weapons. Experts refer to this policy as “no first use,” or NFU.

    The NFU policy reaffirmation, contained in Beijing’s July 2019 strategic white paper, surprised some observers who expected a more expansive and aggressive nuclear posture from the rising power.

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    Johnson 'Confident' of Deal as Pound Falls

    This summary of today’s events by Kitty Donaldson and Jessica Shankleman for Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:

    The pound fell more than 1% against the dollar to its lowest level since 2017 on fears of a no-deal Brexit. But Johnson insisted a deal was possible.

    "We’re very confident, with goodwill on both sides, two mature political entities, the U.K. and EU, can get this done,” Johnson told a TV crew during his trip to Scotland. "It’s responsible for any government to prepare for a no deal if we absolutely have to. That’s the message I’ve been getting across to our European friends. I’m very confident we’ll get there.’’

    The key point for the EU to understand is that the backstop is "dead," along with Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement, but there is "scope to do a new deal." Johnson said the U.K. government is talking to Irish government on Monday, to set out "the limits" and aims for a new deal.

    And

    Conservative Member of Parliament Oliver Letwin, part of a rebel group that includes some Labour MPs seeking to stop a no-deal Brexit, said his colleagues could find a way to amend legislation to prevent the U.K. leaving with no divorce agreement.

    “The mechanical problems we can overcome,” Letwin told BBC radio. “The difficult thing is to get a majority in Parliament for some other course of action at the last moment if there isn’t a deal.” Letwin said there is a “natural majority” of parliamentarians against a no-deal Brexit, but whether they would vote to block it would remain unknown “right up until the last moment.”

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    Foreigners Sell Rand Assets at Record Pace as Eskom Woes Mount

    This article by Paul Wallace for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    Fitch Ratings Ltd. followed on Friday by cutting its outlook for Africa’s most industrialized economy to negative. JPMorgan Chase & Co. said the same day that a rally in the rand since the start of June was more to do with a supportive global environment than improvements in conditions locally.

    “We now believe levels are stretched enough to enter outright rand shorts,” JPMorgan analysts including London-based Anezka Christovova and Robert Habib in New York said in a note. “South Africa’s fundamental picture remains very challenging with a ballooning fiscal deficit and structurally low growth.”

    Citigroup Inc. recommended to clients on Monday that they short the rand against the Turkish lira. The Wall Street bank’s analysts see the latter strengthening about 7% versus the South African currency over the next three months.

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    Goldman Says Asia's Trade Slump Is Showing Signs of Bottoming

    This article by Enda Curran for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here it is in full:

    There are signs that Asia’s export slump is bottoming out. That’s according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists who highlight a substantial pick up in exports to the U.S. from Asian economies including Taiwan, Vietnam and India that’s effectively canceling out the fall in shipments from China.
     
    “Initial shocks from the trade war might be behind us, with Asian exports to China recovering and tech exports catching up with stable non-tech exports,” Goldman economists led by Andrew Tilton wrote in a note. “Also, a rebound in the Asian trade cycle seems overdue, with Asian exports undershooting trade partners’ activity growth and the current downturn being sustained longer than past cycles.”

    Chinese and American trade negotiators meet again in Shanghai this week for the first round of meetings between both sides since talks broke down in May.

    Even if trade tensions escalate, an expected wave of supportive measures from governments and central banks to underpin economic growth will aid the trade recovery, Goldman argues. The Federal Reserve is tipped to cut interest rates this week for the first time in a decade.

    For sure, additional U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods would have an impact. “Our view is, however, that the escalation would likely be temporary ahead of an eventual trade agreement, and potential damages could be mitigated by ongoing shifts in supply chains,”

    Goldman’s economists wrote. “In the event of further escalation in the trade tensions beyond our baseline, Asian trade may undergo another downturn which, if sustained for the coming year, could make the current downcycle the longest since the 1990s.”

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    Mega-Merger Hurdles Hit Profit at World's Largest Gold Miner

    This article by Danielle Bochove for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    Newmont now expects consolidated production of 165,000 ounces of gold from Penasquito in 2019. Last year, the mine produced 272,000 ounces of gold for Goldcorp. Newmont is forecasting zero production at Musselwhite this year and doesn’t expect the mine to be fully operational until mid-2020. In 2018, it produced 205,000 ounces of gold.

    The company said its full-year gold production will be 6.5 million ounces, which compares with a June forecast for 7 million ounces in 2019 and 7.4 million in 2020. The company is “very confident” it can achieve that guidance, Palmer said, noting that guidance for next year will be provided in December.

    The lack of clarity about next year could worry investors, Anita Soni, an analyst with CIBC World Markets, said in a research note. “No further 2020 outlook was provided, which will likely be an overhang on the stock given the uncertainty surrounding the production profile for the recently acquired Goldcorp assets,” she said.

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