David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
Category - General

    Mario Draghi Is Watching His ECB Rate Hike Slip Over the Horizon

    This article by Brian Swint and Carolynn Look for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    With the economy threatened by trade tensions, European politics and temporary factors such as a slump in German car production, “we’ll probably have to wait until the June meeting before the dust has settled,” said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING. “However, it will require a very benign outcome on all these risk factors to see Draghi hiking rates before he leaves office.”

    UBS Group AG President Axel Weber, a former ECB policy maker and Bundesbank president, said at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week that the ECB has already missed its chance to normalize policy in this cycle.

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    Wilbur Ross on the trade Negotiations

    This quote may be of interest to subscribers:

    ...We're miles and miles from getting a resolution and that shouldn't be too surprising. Trade is complicated. There are lots and lots of issues, not just how many soybeans and how much LNG but even more importantly, structural reforms that we really think are needed in the Chinese economy. And then, even more important than that, enforcement mechanisms and penalties for failure to adhere to whatever we agree to.

    People shouldn't think the events of next week will be the solution to all of the issues between the United States and China. It's too complicated a topic. Too many issues. That's different from saying we won't get to a deal. I think there's a fair chance we do get to a deal.

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    The Investor Seth Klarman, in a Rare Interview, Offers a Warning. Davos Should Listen

    Thanks to a subscriber for this article by Evan Osnos for The New Yorker may be of interest.

    In his view, companies that operate with integrity rarely get enough credit for it from investors or the press. “You have people who are princes, who have good values, who treat people right. We don’t tend to pay a lot of attention; we don’t get a lot of stories about them. The surveys of the most admired businesses—how much do those evolve over time based on your market cap? What’s in vogue and in favor is ‘admired.’ ” He has watched, with chagrin, as Wall Street firms pocketed billions in fees and commissions by steering clients to bad deals that they dismiss as “O.P.M.”—Other People’s Money. “Talking about clients as though they are to be taken advantage of rather than to be honored, and respected, and cherished, as your lifeblood—it’s disgusting, but you see that in individual behavior.” He added, “When one person does that, it’s bad for all the rest of us.”

    He told me, “I don’t think it’s too late for business leaders to start doing the right thing for their employees, their clients, and their communities.” And if they don’t? It could lead to regulations that, in his mind, would go too far in constraining corporate behavior. In his speech, he said, “When capitalism goes unchecked and unexamined, and management is seduced by a narrow and myopic perspective, the pendulum can quickly swing in directions where capitalism’s benefits are discounted, and its flaws exaggerated.” Klarman hopes that politicians in Washington will hear his message, but, more to the point, he wants fellow-practitioners to hear him. “If every businessperson, or enough businesspeople, don’t act as stewards of more than just the bottom line, somebody’s going to come along and do it for them.

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    The $1.8 Trillion Global Payout Ride Is Coming Back to Earth

    This article by Ksenia Galouchko for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    In the new era of prudence, shareholders who’ve enjoyed fatter and fatter dividend checks can rest easy no longer.

    IHS Markit Ltd. last week projected a “significant slowdown” in global dividend growth this year, at 5.9 percent, totaling $1.8 trillion, according to a bottom-up analysis of over 9,500 firms. Thanks in part to mounting geopolitical risks, that’s a shift from the 14.3 percent boom in 2018 and 9.4 percent the year before.

    The business-information provider reckons about 11 percent of firms will announce a dividend cut this year -- an uptick of almost 100 names relative to 2018.

    “I believe that dividends of leveraged companies can suffer more,” said Willem Sels, a London-based chief market strategist at HSBC Private Bank. “The excessive focus on the shareholder
    value at the expense of bondholder value will be more muted.”

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    China Risks Real Hard Landing This Time

    This article by Nathaniel Taplin for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    In other words, in the past year, banking-system liquidity has risen by about a fifth, but net credit growth has fallen by about a third. The reason is clear. Shadow finance outstanding fell by a full 10% in 2018—by far the sharpest contraction on record.

    Regulators realize they have a problem. They are now trotting out new central bank lending facilities to goad banks into extending credit to small enterprises. And the economy still has some cushions. Infrastructure investment is rising again. Consumers are struggling, but less than headlines would suggest.

    Both of these bulwarks aren’t as strong as a couple of years ago—consumers are more indebted and a separate campaign against off-balance sheet infrastructure fundraising is still crimping investment. If the property market falls apart, China will be in serious trouble.

    China’s inefficient financial system has long needed surgery. By excising the shadow banking system without a proper transplant to replace it, regulators risk killing the patient.

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    Lego: The Toy of Smart Investors

    This report by Victoria Dobrynskaya and Julia Kishilova may be of interest to subscribers and answers the question why Lego prices have been the subject of asset price inflation.  

    It is posted without further comment but here is a section:

    We study a new alternative investment asset - LEGO sets. A huge secondary market for LEGO sets with tens of thousands of transactions per day has developed since the turn of the century. We find that LEGO investments outperform large stocks, bonds, gold and other alternative investments, yielding the average return of at least 11% (8% in real terms) in the sample period 1987-2015. Small and huge sets, as well as seasonal, architectural and movie-based sets, deliver higher returns. LEGO returns are not exposed to market, value, momentum and volatility risk factors, but have a unit exposure to the size factor, suggesting that this asset performs similarly to small stocks. A positive multifactor alpha of 4-5%, a Sharpe ratio of 0.4, a positive return skewness and a low exposure to standard risk factors make the LEGO toy an attractive alternative investment with a good diversification potential.

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