Eoin Treacy's view -
Even the low end of the forecast by Wood Mackenzie, which provides in-depth analysis for a wide range of clients including large oil companies, utilities and banks, is a more bullish outlook for electric-car adoption than many oil-and-gas companies have espoused.
Spencer Dale, the chief economist of Energy company BP PLC, said last week in Houston that while he expects electric cars to start gaining traction, the internal-combustion engine still has significant advantages over electric alternatives and widespread adoption won’t happen in the next two decades.
“It will still take some time,” Mr. Dale said. “Electric vehicles will happen. It is a sort of when, not if, story.”
The electrification of the automobile has evolved more slowly than some expected, in part thanks to low fuel prices and limited battery life that meant drivers had to recharge every 100 miles. But more capable cars are coming to market as tightening air-pollution regulations in places such as Europe and China force auto makers to engineer better electric vehicles.
The U.S. market today remains tiny, with pure electric cars amounting to less than 1% of total sales so far this year. But Tesla’s decision to build cars with sizable batteries that can run for more than 200 miles before recharging has led a number of competitors to double down on their own electric-car designs.
Tesla remains the standard bearer for electric cars because, more than any other company, it has succeeded in marketing a car people aspire to own. However it is not the only, or even the biggest company manufacturing electric vehicles. In fact Tesla’s success ensures it will deal with a lot more competition as incumbent manufacturers release their own models.
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