Today's interesting charts
Comment of the Day

February 21 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

Today's interesting charts

David Fuller's view Given the bearish yearend 2011 consensus, is it any wonder that so many market commentators are bemused by this year's gains to date? However, while they were presumably focussed on the never ending crisis meetings held by Euroland's officials, share prices were rising, as you can see from these charts for MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the MSCI AC World Total Return Index.

How is one to assess when news that everyone is talking about has already been priced in? Why not look at price charts?

And what is the top performing market so far this year? Is it Wall Street? No, the US market has done well but it is a middle of the table performance, at best. Try Egypt, where the Hermes Index is up 31.48% in USD so far this year. Don't worry if you missed it - I did too. However, the second best performer in 2012 to date is an old Fullermoney favourite.

India's National (Nifty 50) Index, a serial underperformer last year which bottomed in December, has gained 30.11% so far this year in a classic Type-2 ending (an extreme reaction against the prevailing trend, as taught at The Chart Seminar). It surged up through the previous downtrend, pushing above the 200-day MA which has now turned upwards, while also breaking the medium-term progression of lower rally highs. Clearly, the bear has morphed into a bull trend which now looks temporarily overextended following seven consecutive weeks and counting to the upside. Moves of this magnitude are usually followed by a pause, partial retracement and consolidation in what Fullermoney refers to as a right-hand extension phase to the base formation, prior to additional gains. Since I resisted the temptation to take profits when India was clearly overextended relative to its MA in November 2010 when testing the 2008 peak, I will certainly not sell today following the first leg of a recovery. However, anyone looking to top-up their long position may wish to wait for a pullback towards the MA.

ASEAN's leading stock markets - Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand remain firm, although the last two are temporarily overextended and due for consolidations within their overall upward trends.

Australia - see below in 'My personal portfolio' section.

Ireland (weekly & daily) continues its steady recovery which has now cleared the 2011 highs. Its recent consistency in the form of a stair case upward trend, best seen on the daily chart above is similar to a number of other indices this year. When these patterns eventually become choppy and break their progressions of higher reaction lows you will know that consolidations have commenced. These would look like additional support building phases, provided they occurred within the rising 200-day MAs.

The S&P 500 Index (weekly & daily) has an equally consistent step sequence uptrend this year, and this too is not sustainable beyond the short term. A close below 1340, which is above most US analysts' 2012 forecasts and / or a downward dynamic would indicate renewed resistance at the 2011 high. However, a consolidation within the rising 200-day MA would look positive for this cyclical bull trend's medium-term upward scope. If crude oil (WTI & Brent) does not spoil the party we could still see a decisive break above the 2011 highs before a more lengthy consolidation occurs.

Gold (weekly & daily), silver (weekly & daily), platinum (weekly & daily) and palladium (weekly & daily) all had upward dynamics today. This suggests that gold and silver are likely to break up out of their current ranges before long and closes beneath $1700 and $32.60 would be required to question this hypothesis beyond the short term. Platinum has already pushed higher, albeit with the help of this story on supply disruptions, and a close beneath $1600 would be necessary to offset higher scope. Palladium may now have enough underlying support to challenge overhead trading established last year. I would now give the upside the benefit of the doubt provided the price remains above $675.

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