New Bailout Is a Reprieve for Greece, but Doubts Persist
Comment of the Day

February 21 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

New Bailout Is a Reprieve for Greece, but Doubts Persist

Here is the opening from The New York Times' report on today's 'agreement':
LONDON - Greece may have dodged a default with its last-minute bailout deal but longer-term doubts over its ability to repay its staggering debts remain, raising questions about whether even more rescue money will eventually be needed.

European leaders were to sign off on Greece's second bailout of around €130 billion, or $172 billion, at their summit meeting in Brussels next week - subject to Greece taking immediate steps to put the deep structural changes that they agreed to into effect.

Greece must also persuade, if not actually force, its private sector bond holders to accept a higher than expected loss of more than 70 percent on their holdings to reduce Greece's debt stock by the targeted amount of €100 billion.

It is uncertain, however, if another round of austerity can bring Greece to a point whereby it generates enough revenue to pay off its obligations - even if the private sector debt deal goes through - and return to the market on its own.

Europe's leaders hailed the last minute steps, which included a reduction in interest rates on loans from Greece's first rescue in 2010, and European central banks foregoing profit on their Greek bond holdings, that allowed the deal to satisfy a mandate set by the International Monetary Fund that Greece's debt come down to 120.5 percent of gross domestic product by 2020.

David Fuller's view A crisis contained buys time and allows businesses to focus on their own prospects, and international investors to assess other situations which are more often than not considerably less threatening.

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