My personal portfolio
Comment of the Day

February 21 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

My personal portfolio

Australia 200 Index long opened

David Fuller's view The Australian AS51 Index (weekly & daily) looks like an underperformer, mainly due to the strength of AUD. However, when measured in US dollars it has outperformed the S&P this year by almost 2%, and AS51 is a high-yielding index at 4.79% versus 1.99% for the S&P. In buying AS51 I am assuming that AUD, which we still like for the long term, has probably seen the best of its gains for a while. I am also assuming that Asian-led GDP growth will gradually pick up with the help of favourable monetary policy, provided that crude oil prices do not rise too much. However, strength in other industrial commodities, which I also expect over the medium to longer term, would be good for Australia's miners such as BHP which has the biggest weighting in the Index. AS51 has shown higher reaction lows since last August and similar highs, mostly in the mid-4300 region. The base characteristics of the pattern since August could support a retest of past resistance near the psychological 5000 level over the medium term. A close beneath 4170 would probably be required to delay upward progress beyond the short term. I paid 4258.3 for an opening position in a March contract, including spread-bet dealing costs.

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