S&P500 Dividend Aristocrats
Comment of the Day

May 27 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

S&P500 Dividend Aristocrats

Eoin Treacy's view According to Standard & Poors there are 42 companies in the S&P500 which have increased their dividends every year for at least 25 years.

Higher yielding offerings such as Master Limited Partnerships or the Canadian high income sectors often have higher yields and some rival the dividend aristocrats in terms of reliability. However, they are often more volatile and leveraged to the commodity markets. The Canadian government has also tampered with the income trust sector's tax treatment which has shaken confidence in the sector.

For the purposes of the current exercise I intend to examine the dividend aristocrats with the aim of ascertaining whether those offering leverage to the growth of the global consumer are exhibiting relative strength.

When compared to the S&P500's rather meagre 1.89%, the 2.63% average yield offered by the S&P500 Dividend Aristocrats is comparatively attractive. Over a 20-year period the latter has outperformed impressively on a total return basis.

The S&P500 Total Return Index bounced back strongly from the 2009 lows retracing most of its bear market decline. While somewhat overextended relative to the 200-day MA, a sustained move below 2050 would be required to question medium-term uptrend consistency.

The S&P500 Dividend Aristocrats Total Return Index has outperformed spectacularly over the last 20 years. During the Nasdaq crash it had begun to post progressions of higher or equal major reaction lows from early 2000. It found support in the region of the 2002 peak during the 2008 bear market and has since rebounded emphatically. Demand for yield in a low interest rate environment has contributed to the strength of this sector since 2009.

The Total Return Index has been trending particularly consistently for the last year. Investors appear to be trying to hedge both against low US growth and rising inflationary pressures in high growth economies. A significant number of S&P500 dividend aristocrats have global franchises and offer leverage to the growth of the global economy.

This spreadsheet ranks the constituents of the S&P500 Dividend Aristocrats Index by sector and then by Gross 12-month Yield.

This Chart Library Performance Filter ranks the constituents of the S&P500 Dividend Aristocrats Index by 12-month performance.

3M yields 2.32% and derives almost as much revenue from its Asia Pacific operations as it does from its US ones. The share bounced back emphatically from its 2009 lows and is now testing the 2007 peak. A sustained move below $87 would be required to begin to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.

There is strong commonality in the beverages sector with Coca Cola having the more globally diversified income stream. The share currently yields 2.68%. It found support in the region of the 200-day MA in March and has held above $65 since April. A sustained move below the MA, currently near $63 would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Ecolabs (industrial detergents, sanitation etc.) derives almost as much revenue from international operations as it does in the USA. The share yields 1.31% and remains in a consistent medium-term uptrend. It hit a new all time high yesterday and a sustained move below $46 would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Sigma Aldrich (chemicals, biotech) is globally diversified and yields 0.98%. The share broke upwards to new highs in October, consolidated above $60 and a sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Both McCormick & Co (2.18%) and Hormel Foods (1.61%) are more leveraged to heightened demand and ability to pay for food than specific sales growth in Asia. Both shares have rallied impressively of late, and while somewhat overbought in the short-term, sustained moves below their respective 200-day MAs would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Stanley Works is reasonably well diversified geographically and yields 2.47%. It broke upwards to new highs in December and has been consolidating below $80 in a relatively gradual reversion towards the rising 200-day MA. A sustained move below $68 would be required to check medium-term scope for further upside.

Proctor and Gamble is globally diversified and North East Asia has been its fastest growth market. The share yields 2.98% and broke out of an 18-month range three weeks ago. A sustained move below $65 would be required to signal a failed upside break, lengthier period of consolidation and to check potential for additional upside. Johnson & Johnson (3.34%) has a similar profile to P&G above and broke out of an 18-month range 3 weeks ago. Kimberly Clark (3.96%) shares the same decade long range and broke out from an 18-month consolidation.

McDonalds yields 2.89% is globally diversified and remains in a consistent medium-term uptrend. It broke upwards to new all time highs two weeks ago and would need to sustain a move below the MA to question scope for additional upside.

Yum Brands doesn't have a long enough history of dividend increases to be considered a dividend aristocrat. However, its Chinese revenues are growing strongly and look set to overtake its US revenue in the next few years. It has increased its dividends steadily over the last five years and currently yields 1.78%. It has a similar pattern to McDonalds above.

There are a number of companies in the S&P Dividend Aristocrats which I have not included because they are primarily US focused. However, a significant cohort are performing impressively which supports the view that yield is attracting a premium among investors and that defensive sectors offer a safe haven in a slow growth environment.

Shares offering leverage to global growth and the emergence of a new middle class predominately in Asia are clearly performing well and stoking medium to long-term investor interest. In the event that inflationary pressures become more of a concern, those offering a reasonably competitive yield have a better chance of holding their value.

Back to top