"First of all: A big thanks for the Chart Seminar last week, what a wonderful experience!

"One issue was left a bit open at the seminar: When mentioning US housebuilders and the overhang of unsold homes possibly starting to evaporate, I got a rather doubtful response, to put it mildly. However, I found it from the Berkshire Hathaway annual letters to shareholders, where Mr. Buffett mentioned, that he expects the situation to clear "in a year or so". Obviously he is talking his own book there too, but still, not exactly a commentator I would dismiss lightly. As a disclaimer, I haven't bought any, just thinking aloud.

"P.S. I'm not sure yet if I dare to actually use the umbrella, in case it gets twisted by the wind or something. It's too precious:)"

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for your kind words and your participation in a number of discussions. I'm delighted you treasure your umbrella, you certainly earned it. Thanks also for initiating the discussion on the longevity of the bear market for US homebuilders. You will recall that there were mixed views among delegates towards the sector. The majority of shares remain in base formations suggesting there is potential for recovery at some stage but we do not have conclusive evidence that demand has returned to medium-term dominance just yet.

Lennar Corp is among the better performers and has posted a progression of higher or equal major reaction lows since late 2008. It found at least short-term support in the region of the 200-day MA two weeks ago and is now testing the four-month progression of lower rally highs. A sustained move above $20 would complete the base and indicate a return to medium-term demand dominance. Meritage Homes has a similar pattern and Toll Brothers has a saucering characteristic consistent with base formation development.