Fed Nears Adoption of an Inflation Target as Bernanke Pushes Transparency
Comment of the Day

January 06 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

Fed Nears Adoption of an Inflation Target as Bernanke Pushes Transparency

This is an interesting report from Bloomberg. Here is the opening:
Federal Reserve officials are nearing agreement on adopting an inflation goal as Chairman Ben S. Bernanke extends his push for improving transparency and communications with the public.

"We are very close to having inflation targeting in the U.S.," James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said in a radio interview yesterday on Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt. "We are getting closer to being able to make a committee-wide statement about these longer-term policy goal issues."

An explicit numeric inflation objective would mark another step in Bernanke's unprecedented campaign to open the Fed's policy process to public view to boost accountability and effectiveness. The Fed chairman has also introduced regular press conferences and will publish the central bank's own forecasts for the benchmark lending rate this month. At the same time, Bernanke is following a road already taken by central banks from Sweden to New Zealand.

"We're in a situation where everyone is starting to appreciate the benefits of having the Fed be able to provide clear signals," said Mark Gertler, a New York University economist and research co-author with Bernanke.

Deciding on the rate of inflation the Fed should shoot for is within reach, said Columbia University economist Frederic Mishkin, who helped shape the Fed's approach to the question as a governor from 2006 to 2008.

More difficult will be agreeing on how to define full employment, which is also part of the Fed's marching orders from Congress.

David Fuller's view While a commendable idea, the principle of adhering to an inflationary target is very unlikely to be etched in granite, judging from what we have seen in the UK. For the last three years and counting, UK inflation has been well above its 2% target and is currently over 5%. Throughout this period the Bank of England has repeatedly stated that inflation would soon fall back.

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