Email of the day
Comment of the Day

January 06 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day

On gold
"Gold a buy below 1600? Or need we wait for 1400-1500?"

David Fuller's view Analysing gold (weekly & daily) is more difficult than at any other time over the last eleven years, in my view. Gold is no longer cheap and the three-year medium-term trend has lost its consistency. Currently, gold is alternating between behaving like a safe haven, and sometimes like a risk asset.

Since gold is no longer cheap, and as investment demand is now the main driver of its price, I think it is unrealistic to describe gold as anything other than a risk asset with unique safe haven appeal.

Previously, I have made the comparison with 2008, when gold fell by about a third before recovering strongly. While we are very unlikely to experience a global meltdown of 2008 proportions, in my view, a decline of a third would take gold back to about £1380.

In answer to your question, I think investors in bullion could nibble on a scale-down basis, if they wish to, as there should be more long-term upside than downside. The alternative is to hold out for the bigger correction which may or may not occur.

Technically, gold has corrected a short-term oversold situation over the last six days but I see no conclusive evidence that we have seen the actual low for this medium-term setback.

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