US Banking sector
Comment of the Day

January 06 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

US Banking sector

Eoin Treacy's view With most investors focused on Europe's troubled banking sector and the need for recapitalisation, it is easy to ignore the USA's banks. They have their own problems, with continued stress in the property market and low economic growth. However, they have rallied rather well over the last few weeks, in contrast to their European counterparts.

The S&P500 Banks Index has remained largely rangebound since 2009 and is currently rallying from the lower boundary. A drop below 130 would be needed to break the three-month progression of higher reaction lows and question scope for additional higher to lateral ranging. A sustained move above 150 would complete the base and suggest a return to medium-term demand dominance.

The KBW Regional Banks Index found support in October and has rallied back to test the upper side of its base near 55. It is somewhat overbought in the short-term and will need to hold above the 48 area if the medium-term upside is to continue to be given the benefit of the doubt.

Wells Fargo has rallied back to test the psychological $30 area and is overbought in the short-term. A sustained move above that area would help bolster the view that demand is returning to medium-term dominance.

US Bancorp has rallied back to test the upper side of its two-year range. A break in the short-term progression of higher reaction lows, currently near $27, would be required to check potential for a successful upward break.

JP Morgan has rallied back to the test the October high and the lower side of the overhead top formation. It will need to sustain a move above $38 to begin to suggest demand is returning to dominance beyond the short term.

Goldman Sachs' decline has at least paused in the region of $100 but a sustained move above $120 will be required to break the progression of lower rally highs and question the consistency of the medium-term downtrend.

US banks have rallied enough to begin to ask questions about the sustainability of their advances. A number have returned to potential areas of resistance. They will need to hold the majority of recent gains on a pullback and subsequently improve upon them if confidence is to be restored beyond the short term.


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