Email of the day on yield curve inversions
Comment of the Day

April 25 2022

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day on yield curve inversions

Thanks for this commentary Eoin, which I found very good. I think we can have an intermediate correction in commodities and equities. The equity correction might be longer lasting and deeper in my opinion given valuations, interest rates, and massive positioning but I agree totally that the Fed will loosen policy when the going gets tough. That's what the Fed did during the 1970s several times if my memory is correct. I think the Germans did the same during the 1920s with much worse results, but their position was much worse.

One thing regarding the yield curve. If the Fed raises rates 250 or 300 bps, the curve will invert mathematically if bond yields are unchanged or fall. However, once the market sees the Fed raising rates, long rates could increase depending on inflation and the economy

Eoin Treacy's view

Thank you for this insightful email. I don’t want to put limits on how long or how deep a correction can be. We can only deal with the reality provided by markets. The one thing we do know is the correction is in response to tightening liquidity conditions, so it is unlikely to end until liquidity conditions ease.

You are of course correct that the 10-year yield could continue to rise at least in line with the pace of the 3-month’s advance. However, I don’t view it as a likely scenario beyond the short-term. The long end will price in recession risk, even as the Fed tightens to tame current outsized demand.  

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