While agricultural markets focus on Russia's devastating drought, another large shift in soft commodity production and consumption is lurking in the background: China's mediocre crops this year, combined with a shift in dietary habits, have strained the country's traditional sufficiency in grains, leading to higher prices and large imports.

The rise in corn and soyabean imports has raised questions over whether Beijing's policy of grain self-sufficiency will be sustainable as demand rises and agricultural land shrinks under the advance of cities. Meanwhile, corn imports are at levels not seen in 15 years, and soyabean imports have doubled in the past five.

Wholesale corn prices in local markets in China are at record levels and industry officials forecast that Beijing will import at least 1m tonnes of the grain this year, up from just 0.05m tonnes in 2008-09 and the highest since crop failures in 1994-1995.
China's rice imports have also been higher than usual this year, with the country surprising observers with big purchases in Vietnam and elsewhere.

David Fuller's view Fullermoney remain generally bullish of grain and bean prices but short-term moves are likely to remain volatile in line with many other markets.

Don't miss the three graphics on Chinese imports in this article