"As a quick follow up to the email of Wednesday, one of the main reasons that I have been a long time subscriber, is that I realised early on that you were not only willing to share your actual trading moves, but, more importantly, were willing to print and respond to letters or articles that took an opposite view. I admire that and thank you for your response. Yes, of course I am always looking at the technical pattern to watch for a reversal or breakdown of a primary move. Of course, there can sometimes be questions regarding where that takes place. Looking at the 30 Year Bond first month future, we could look at 115 as the area where this move began after the 2009 bull equity phase began to lose its momentum. A more conservative way might be to look at its most recent consolidation, around the 125 level. Either way, I think we will soon get a preliminary answer on our different takes. The long bond is getting crushed today [Ed: last Friday]. I say this is a classic technical move from a very overbought level. Using an oscillator such as the RSI should indicate where the sell off may stop. The 30 Year has been bouncing off the 50 RSI level as opposed to dropping into oversold (30) territory. I would think there is a good chance for that to continue and I will look for that level to add to my position. The economic data that came out in the first 3 days of this week was so devastating in my opinion, that I cannot see anything but a technical dead cat bounce in equities accompanied by a sell off in Treasuries. My main reasoning is that I do not see anything that resembles trend ending technical action as defined by FullerMoney. In addition, I see no hint whatsoever of capitulation in the Stock Market. Sentiment is far too optimistic for the data that is available for anyone to look at. Nobody likes bad news and generally, people do not like bearers of bad news or pessimism. I say this is not pessimism but realism, at least my reality. And I will again refer to one of my favorite quotes by Warren Buffet that truly helps me keep grounded. "It is optimism that is the enemy of the rational buyer". I think everyone should stop and think about whether they are trading rationally or trading wishfully, given the environment we are in."

David Fuller's view Thanks for the thoughtful feedback.

At Fullermoney we think it is a good idea to be familiar with both sides of a rational market debate, in order to think. We also have great respect for the trend, which is still on your side in government bonds, although I think it is more overextended than perhaps you do. It is also our observation that price trends will usually begin to change before lagging economic data.

Eoin and I think it is our job to tell subscribers what we think and why, while providing a comprehensive chart library to help them with their own thinking. Having some knowledge of the brainpower that resides within the Collective of subscribers, we believe it would be a conceit to tell others how they should think.