David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
Category - General

    Email of the day on coronavirus hysteria from David Brown

    I agree. Moreover, the number of positives is likely over-estimated. The false positive rate is significant yet every ‘positive’ is counted without a retest. By my calculation, less than half the reported positive infections are real.

    We are paying the price for electing politicians without any training in STEM subjects and a press that thrives in negativity and misinformation. 

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    Rebel Tories Expect Compromise Amid Anger Over U.K. Virus Powers

    This article by Emily Ashton and Tim Ross for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    Baker tweeted that he and other MPs had attended a “cordial and constructive meeting” with Health Secretary Matt Hancock and Commons Leader Jacob Rees-Mogg. Fellow rebel Dehenna Davison said “all sides are working together to reach an agreement that works, allowing proper scrutiny alongside timely action.”

    The rebels estimate they have about 80 Conservative MPs ready to vote against the government, according to a person familiar with the matter. That would be twice the number needed to defeat Johnson in a vote in the House of Commons.

    Faced with such a big revolt, ministers agreed to work on the details of a plan to meet the rebels’ key demand for a vote on any coronavirus restrictions before they become law, the person said.

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    Email of the day on palladium's outperformance

    Dear Eoin, many thanks for the excellent commentary on these "interesting times"! is there a reason why Palladium seems to be trading better than Gold or Silver at the moment? Many thanks, A

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    Email of the day - on COVID-19 hysteria

    I think your analysis of the current situation regarding Covid is spot on. There is now undoubtedly a degree of hysteria infecting the public psyche, though I have to say here in Northern England people are calm regarding social distancing! A great deal of fuss is made of the daily positive test result while the average daily death toll due to Covid is around the 30 mark. In a population of 65 million I would have thought this was bearable. Increasingly strident restrictions are now being applied to University students. The overall effect on the economy is likely to be dire, not to mention the mental health of the population. Ultimately, there is a limit to what folk will put up with.

    And

    I read that the USA has had 6m cases and 200k deaths. 'Generally,' this is put out as 'terrible'. But if the population is 330m, that means cases are 1.82% and deaths (thought to be exaggerated count??) are 0.06%. Nobody wants to catch this thing 'just in case' but your remarks about hysteria seem justified.

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    Email of the day on industrials potential for outperformance.

    Thanks for another good Friday’s audio and comment. I too have been watching XXX. But did not buy yet. Your purchase will be an incentive for me. I am also watching Airbus. Considering their main rival Boeing is in bigger trouble, I thought it would be a good company to own for the post pandemic era. I would love to read any reasons for not investing in Airbus and your/collective’s view on Airbus. Thanks in advance. And THANK YOU for the excellent service.

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    Email of the day - on reserve currency status

    Thanks for your comments on Reserve Currencies on Friday. I remember David mentioning many years ago that to be a reserve currency a country must have democracy and military might. If this is true China would not have a chance in the foreseeable future. I would love to learn your views on this. Please advise and thanks again.

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    The new gold rush: western investors offset soft eastern demand

    This article from the Financial Times may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    Popley Eternal, a jewellery megastore in a busy neighbourhood of India’s financial capital Mumbai that has traded for nearly 100 years, typically caters to the bustle of customers shopping for gold necklaces and earrings ahead of weddings and festivals. Items start at around Rs50,000 ($680).

    But footfall has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels since the shop reopened in June after the country’s strict coronavirus lockdown was lifted. The three-month lockdown brought virtually all economic activity to a halt. Suraj Popley, the owner, says the company has cut its staff by around a quarter to 20, with sales so low that any item sold in the current environment is considered a “bonus”.

    Indian consumers hurt by the economic fallout are opting instead to sell their family jewels or borrowing against the precious metal to make the most of high global prices. “People are coming to sell gold, in case they require cash, in case they require liquidity,” he says. “Very few people are coming to buy.”

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