David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
Category - General

    Fauci Warns Early Reopening Could 'Set You Back', Cause Deaths

    This article by Laura Litvan and Justin Sink for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    The checkpoints that Fauci cited call for a succession of steps toward gradual reopening, including a “downward trajectory” of documented cases or positive coronavirus tests “within a 14-day period.”

    The panel’s Republican chairman, Senator Lamar Alexander, opened the hearing -- with lawmakers and witnesses appearing largely by video from their homes or offices for the 3 1/2 hours of questioning -- by reaffirming his view that the administration’s efforts to increase testing capacity are “impressive but not nearly enough.”

    “Before we spend too much time finger-pointing, I would like to suggest that almost all of us -— the United States and almost every country as far I could tell —- underestimated this virus,” he said. “Underestimated how contagious it would be. How it can travel silently without causing symptoms. How it can be especially deadly for certain segments of our population.”

    But Senator Patty Murray, the panel’s ranking Democrat, said “the Trump administration’s response to this public health emergency so far has been a disaster all on its own.”

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    Email of the day - on when to use point and figure charts

    Thanks for your very clear and objective commentaries at moment. It is good that you are looking beyond the current crisis and thinking about what investments are likely to do best over the longer term. I notice that you have been referring to point and figure charts more recently. Under what circumstances do you find it best to use these, rather than a 'standard' daily / weekly price chart? Also, what do you recommend using for box size / reversal as an unleveraged investor, taking a medium / long term view?

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    Email of the day - on my personal portfolio

    Eoin, does it continue to be the case that these are your most recent trades? Having been through virtually unprecedented volatility over the last 6 weeks since these trades were made, I would have expected that you might have been fairly active in the market. If these are your last trades, does that imply that you are very much an "investor" rather than a "trader". I am relatively new to the platform, and less familiar with your personal approach to investing.

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    Email of the day - on chasing outperformers

    With respect to the second note, and knowing your own preference to stay with the "winners" and cut the "losers", at what point do you look to valuations and question the sky-high prices people are willing to pay for these "winners"? I personally have a tough time chasing stocks that have already run, but for now at least, they just keep going, proving highly frustrating!

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    Email of the day on Japanese stocks and 6G:

    I hope you and the family are handling the new normal? You certainly seem to, as there has been no decline in your daily's, in fact if anything they are like a good wine, getting better with age/experience.

    I have recently checked all the Topix industrial indexes. Virtually all of them look like the majority of most world stock market indexes, except for two,

    The Topix Telecommunication Index and the Topix Pharmaceutical Index.

    They both compare more to the NASDAQ and one or two other stronger US indexes.

    If you remember, late last year I sent you a list of Japanese 5G related companies, some of these are what my portfolio has consisted of most of this year. Many are performing in line with the NASDAQ, but when markets were selling off during March and April I added KDDI and DOCOMO to my list. I came across a DOCOMO white paper confirming their research into 6G!

    Unfortunately, I do not have very much experience of the Pharma sector, except for the big names. So, if your collective could offer any ideas it would be much appreciated.

    Thanking you in advance.

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    Japan Stocks Rise on Optimism Over Restart of Economic Activity

    This article by Min Jeong Lee and Ayaka Maki for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    “We can’t let our guards down, but the numbers of new infection cases are falling, allowing people to formulate some sort of outlook, which is being welcomed by the market,” said Naoki Fujiwara, chief fund manager at Shinkin Asset Management Co. “The market is moving based on a scenario that the June quarter will be a bottom for the economy, followed by a recovery from the September quarter.”

    Optimism that economic stimulus measures will help cushion the blow from the virus also buoyed sentiment. The government and the ruling party aim to finalize plans for a second supplementary budget for fiscal 2020 during the current Diet session, the Yomiuri reported.

    “The 2 trillion yen being touted is sizable and the government is taking action faster than expected,” said Shoji Hirakawa, chief global strategist at Tokai Tokyo Research Institute.

     

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    Sudden Bitcoin Crash Sparks Serious Coinbase Warning

    This article by Billy Bambrough for Forbes may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    The bitcoin price lost more than 10% in a matter of minutes yesterday evening, dropping to lows of $8,100 on the Luxembourg-based Bitstamp exchange before rebounding to settle around $8,600.

    However, an outage on major U.S. bitcoin and crypto exchange Coinbase just after bitcoin's price plummet left many users unable to trade—the second time in less than a month Coinbase has buckled under stress.

    "How many times do we have to say take your bitcoin off of Coinbase if you want to have access to it," Rachel Siegel, a bitcoin and cryptocurrency content creator, warned via Twitter, adding, "this is not the first time Coinbase has gone down and it surely will not be the last."

    "Coinbase acting like the NYSE circuit breaking," joked Jason Williams, cofounder and partner at bitcoin and crypto hedge fund Morgan Creek Digital, suggesting that Coinbase outages could dampen spikes and dips in the bitcoin price.

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