David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
Category - General

    U.K. Assets Roiled as Delay on Brexit Vote Sparks No-Deal Fears

    This article by Charlotte Ryan, John Ainger and Shoko Oda for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    The delay in the vote means an EU summit later in the week will be the next focus for markets. Traders had been planning to stay late at the office Tuesday in anticipation of significant price swings on the vote. May said she would try to address concerns over the Irish border and step up preparations for a no-deal scenario.

    “This is very strong risk-off move,” said John Wraith, head of U.K. macro rates at UBS Group AG. “The market clearly believes she will not get anything material enough from the EU to turn that scale of opposition around, so even if the vote is delayed it’s going to end in the same way -- with a big defeat for the government, and the end of the Withdrawal Agreement -- but now it will happen even closer to the date of the cliff edge.”

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    The IPO Race for Uber and Lyft Isn't Against Each Other

    This article by Shira Ovide for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section

    After a relative tech IPO dry spell of 2015 and 2016, there’s less of a stock feeding frenzy around each new tech listing now. Snapchat’s valuation has moved from outlandish at its IPO to tame.(1) Most other tech companies that went public in the last couple of years also trade relatively in line with their older peers. That shows investors have grown more discriminating about when to pay a rich price for fast-growing companies. I think that temperance will carry over to IPOs for Lyft and Uber. 

    Ultimately, though, Uber and Lyft have more to worry about than IPO order. Uber in particular has yet to prove its basic business model makes sense after 10 years of history. Economic and market conditions are deteriorating. In the U.S., people are openly talking about the “R-Word” — recession. Those are all good reasons to hurry and go public. But Uber and Lyft shouldn’t overthink the advantages of hitting the stock market first.  

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    One Fed official suggested on Friday delaying a December rate hike, the first to do so

    This note by Thomas Franck for CNBC may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

    St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard reportedly said on Friday that the central bank could consider postponing its widely anticipated December rate hike because of an inverted yield curve.

    “The current level of the policy rate is about right,” Bullard said in a prepared presentation to the Indiana Banker’s Association, according to Reuters.

    Bullard is the first member of the Fed to speak publicly about a delay in December. The Fed president — while not a Federal Open Market Committee voter in 2018 — will be able to participate in rate hike decisions in 2019.

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    The U.S. Just Became a Net Oil Exporter for the First Time in 75 Years

    This article by Javier Blas for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    The shift to net exports is the dramatic result of an unprecedented boom in American oil production, with thousands of wells pumping from the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico to the Bakken in North Dakota to the Marcellus in Pennsylvania.

    While the country has been heading in that direction for years, this week’s dramatic shift came as data showed a sharp drop in imports and a jump in exports to a record high. Given the volatility in weekly data, the U.S. will likely remain a small net importer most of the time.

    “We are becoming the dominant energy power in the world,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research. “But, because the change is gradual over time, I don’t think it’s going to cause a huge revolution, but you do have to think that OPEC is going to have to take that into account when they think about cutting.”

     

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    Email of the day on Crowd Money, late cycle moves and credit

    As you have repeatedly mentioned in recent audios, we are at a very interesting time in markets. The coming weeks may potentially offer us a guide as to whether markets are pricing in a recession in late 2019/2020 or whether this maybe further delayed by the Fed and the US administration setting a looser policy tone sooner rather than later.

    As David has always urged “don’t fight the Fed”.

    Being away from my desk enjoying the delights of the Caribbean, I have taken the time to re-read your most illuminating book Crowd Money which you published back in 2013 and I read back in 2014 (again in the Sunny Caribbean).

    I have to mention that a good many of your observations have come to pass and my holdings in a number of Autonomies who are also Dividend Aristocrats have been a core holding of my balanced personal portfolio. I have noted with interest the recent late cycle outperformance of these holdings compared to previously sexy growth stocks.

    I would recommend to the collective to take the opportunity to read or re-read Crowd Money at a time when market strategy is in flux.

    You have also made reference to the possibility of GE corporate debt being downgraded to junk. I attach a link to the UK Investment Manager M&G ‘Bond Vigilantes’ website and their comments relating to the US corporate debt market and with specific reference to GE’s strategy to deleverage and preserve their IG status.

    Hope this is of interest.

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    Riding in Waymo One, The Google Spinoff's First Self-Driving Taxi Service

    This article by Andrew Hawkins for the Verge may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    Over the course of three separate trips in Chandler, the trained drivers in my Waymo vehicles never take control. I’ve ridden in a Waymo vehicle without a human being in the driver’s seat once before, but it was not on public roads. I was fully prepared to experience a fully driverless ride while in Chandler, but, alas, Waymo rejected my request.

    The rides are uneventful, but it is exciting to experience the little flourishes that have been added for ride-hailing customers. The minivans still smell new, or at least recently cleaned. The screen on the back of the driver’s headrest features a large blue “start” button that I could press to initiate the ride. (There’s also a physical button in the headliner of the vehicle that performs the same task.) After pressing the button, a musical chime sounds and a robotic-sounding woman’s voice says, “Here we go.”

    As I said, I’m an experienced Waymo rider — three trips and counting — but this one feels more mature. Before, it felt like you were being driven by your half-blind grandmother, but now, riding feels… mostly normal. The car slows down for speed bumps, accelerates for lane changes, and handles a number of difficult maneuvers like unprotected left turns. And it even surprises me a couple of times, like when it ended up braking too far into the crosswalk at an intersection, and then reversed back a few inches to make room for pedestrians. Of course, it probably shouldn’t have stopped so abruptly in the first place, but it is still comforting to see the car correct its mistakes in real time.

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