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David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
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The Future of Uncertainty

Thanks to a subscriber for this transcript of 3rd Atal Bihari Vajpayee Memorial Lecture delivered by Ambassador Bilahari Kausikan of Singapore in New Delhi yesterday. Here is a section: 

First, no country can avoid engaging with both the US and China. Dealing with both simultaneously is a necessary condition for dealing effectively with either. Without the US there can be no balance to China anywhere; without engagement with China, the US may well take us for granted. The latter possibility may be less in the case of a big country like India, but it is not non-existent.

Second, I know of no country that is without concerns about some aspect or another of both American and Chinese behaviour. The concerns are not the same, nor are they held with equal intensity, and they are not always articulated – indeed, they are often publicly denied -- but they exist even in the closest of American allies and in states deeply dependent on China.



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Futures Minerals Forum Update Part 2



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Saudi Arabia Says $3 Billion Mining Funds Are Moving Target

This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Saudi Arabia’s 11.95 billion riyals ($3.2 billion) of funding for a joint venture that will invest in mining assets internationally is “going to be a moving target,” Mining Minister Bandar Alkhorayef said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.

“We are establishing a governance between this JV with the ministry to make sure that this JV allows the country to get the right minerals needed for our industrial strategy and our needs in general,” he said

In 2022, Saudi Arabia saw as much as $32 billion of investments in the mineral sector, a 50% growth in revenues from 2021, the minister said in a separate interview

Saudi Arabia had previously estimated its mineral wealth at $1.3 trillion, but that’s now considered conservative because discoveries have been better than expected, he said



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Who is the Mystery Gold Buyer?

Thanks to a subscriber for this report from TD Ameritrade. Here is a section:

The rally in gold prices over the past two months has defied analyst expectations for continued weakness, including TD Securities'. Yet, we see little evidence that the rise in gold prices is associated with a changing macro narrative. Given the bearish macro backdrop, speculative interest in gold has remained exceptionally lackluster as the world barrels towards a recession, especially after accounting for recent shifts in CTA positioning. Still, gold prices have continued to firm, retracing more than 50% of their significant drawdown from 2022 highs. • This begs the question: who in the world is this mystery buyer driving prices higher? Armed with a flows-based approach, we present strong evidence that behemoth Chinese and official sector purchases may have single-handedly catalyzed a $150/oz mispricing in gold markets. What is less clear is what has driven these massive purchases. • We investigate whether a sanctions-evasion war chest associated a potential invasion of Taiwan, China's reserve currency ambitions, massive pent-up demand associated with the Chinese reopening, or Chinese New Year demand could be consistent with this extreme buying activity. Chinese demand appears unrelenting for the time being, but barring a grandiose geopolitical regime change, we find that it would likely subside towards normal levels in coming months. This would leave gold prices vulnerable to a steep consolidation lower, given gold's lack of alternative buyers and its current mispricing relative to its recent historical relationship with real rates. We turn to our tracking of positioning for the top ten gold traders in China to scour for nascent signs of peaking Chinese demand, which could present a tactical signal for a noteworthy repricing lower.



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Brazil Asset Selloff on Protests Likely Short-Lived, Citi Says

This note by Maria Elena Vizcaino for Bloomberg may be of interest. Here it is in full:

Any pullback in Brazilian asset prices should revert quickly as the protests should be short-lived and not have major direct implications, Citigroup strategists led by Dirk Willer wrote in a note Monday. 

The Brazilian real was the worst performer among 23 emerging market peers tracked by Bloomberg, weakening 1.2%

The protests have been publicly criticized by far-right leaders, including former President Jair Bolsonaro, and they lack support from leaders in the executive, legislative and judiciary branches



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Mining Stocks Rally as Gold Advances to Highest Level Since June

This note from Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:

Kinross Gold and Pan American Silver are among the gold and silver miners getting the biggest boost Tuesday, as gold rose to the highest in six months.

Gold rose 1% to trade over $1,840 an ounce as the precious metal continues to gain momentum
The Bloomberg Americas Mining Index gains as much as 3.2% led by Kinross’s 7.5% rise and Pan American’s 7.4% climb, Newmont climbs 3.7% and is one of the top performer in the S&P 500 Index

Other miners rallying include: EQX CN +11%, ARIS CN +10%, SVM CN +4.3%, BTO CN +3.3%, ABX CN +3.8%, FR CN +2.8%, LUN CN +3.9%, YRI CN +3.1%



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Bank of Japan Decision Will Affect the World

This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

The BOJ has been the last holdout on negative rates, so these tentative signs that it might be buckling will heighten expectations we may be in for more unsettling volatility in 2023. Markets really don't like uncertainty, and even a suggestion that Japan might be forced into letting bond yields soar higher is enough to get risk managers heading for the exit. Fixed income isn’t quite the haven some commentators had convinced themselves it might be in the new year.

BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda was at pains to downplay any implications for official rates, but this sudden move after implacable denials speaks louder. The BOJ did increase its QE bond buying ammunition to 9 trillion yen ($68 billion) per month from 7.3 trillion yen — all to defend its new line in the sand, the 0.5% 10-year yield. But this is merely a symbolic delaying tactic. Kuroda steps down in April, so Tuesday’s decision increases the expectation that his replacement will usher in further monetary tightening. This is no longer an impenetrable negative interest rate fortress. It might make foreign speculators meditate on the perils of shorting both Japanese government bonds and the yen simultaneously.



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National Bank of Canada Neutral On i-80 Gold's Assays From Hilltop Corridor Discovery

This article from MT Newswires may be of interest. Here it is in full

National Bank of Canada said Monday that it ascribed a neutral bias on i-80 Gold Corp. (IAU.TO)'s Hilltop corridor discovery at the Ruby Hill property that showed elevated zinc mineralization.

Drill highlights include 12.3% zinc over 39.6 meters, adding to the high-grade polymetallic discovery in the Hilltop zone announced in November.

The bank said the results were limited to a single hole although it reinforces Ruby Hill's optionality as well as potential host to oxide and sulfide gold as well as skarn base metal mineralization, all within proximity of the underground infrastructure planned in 2023.

"Results add a high-grade datapoint to the broader Hilltop area, while expanding the region of prospectivity, still open in all directions," the bank said.

National Bank gave i-80 an outperform rating with a $4.25 price target. Price: 3.58, Change: -0.18, Percent Change: -4.79



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China's Covid Pivot Set to Worsen the Global Energy Crunch

This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

China’s pivot away from Covid Zero is poised to boost natural gas demand in the world’s biggest importer, potentially curbing supply to Europe and other Asian nations.

China National Offshore Oil Corp. is now looking to secure more shipments of the super-chilled fuel for next year. The return to the market of one of the nation’s largest liquefied natural gas buyers follows a period of subdued demand, due to virus curbs suppressing economic activity, and may herald a rebound in imports. 

Beijing’s move to reopen its economy and live with Covid-19 has seen most internal restrictions being dismantled over the last few weeks. Provided that’s not rolled back as cases surge, that will increase the challenge for Europe next year as it prepares for the winter of 2023/24 with little or no natural gas from Russia. 

Chinese gas imports are likely to be 7% higher in 2023 than this year, according to Wang Zhen, president of Cnooc’s Energy Economics Institute.

The forecast belies still-weak industrial demand. Many factories will send workers home earlier-than-usual for the Lunar New Year holidays, while local production and Russian pipeline flows are rising.

There are already signs China will need to increase LNG purchases to prepare for next year, however. Inventories at northern ports are depleting faster than normal amid cold weather and have dropped to the mid-to-low level, according to ENN Energy’s research group, while domestic LNG prices are trending higher.



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Stocks Pare CPI-Fueled Rally With Fed Set to Hike

This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

“While the war against inflation is turning, we are a long way off declaring victory and the Fed will keep its hawkish stance for a while longer, even if it does potentially force a recession,” said Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot.

The CPI-fueled stock rally fails to recognize that corporate earnings are just starting to see the impact of tight monetary policy, James Athey, investment director at Abrdn.

“As the full effects of the Fed’s aggressive actions this year play out next year, it seems inevitable that we will see a significant repricing lower in EPS forecasts and thus the broad market,” Athey said.



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