Wheat Set for Third Weekly Gain on Signs of Higher World Demand
Comment of the Day

December 18 2015

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Wheat Set for Third Weekly Gain on Signs of Higher World Demand

This note by Megan Durisin for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here it is in full: 

Prices head for third straight weekly gain, longest rally since Oct. 2

?NOTE: Argentina Devalues Peso With Grain Exporters’ Backing “Argentina is not going to be a heavy exporter of wheat in the short term, like they are for corn and beans,” Terry Reilly, senior commodity analyst at Futures International in Chicago, says in telephone interview.

NOTE: Morocco Issues Tender for 360,000 Tons of U.S. Soft Wheat: ONICL

NOTE: Jordan Buys 50k MT of Wheat at $229/MT From Ukraine

Jordan tender bolsters global market and “Morocco coming in for U.S. wheat is supportive,” Reilly says

Some traders are re-entering market following U.S. interest-rate increase and Argentina devaluation, Reilly says

Corn futures for March delivery climb 1.1% to $3.78 1/2 a bushel

Eoin Treacy's view

This is an El Nino year so we can expect volatility in agricultural commodity prices and this is particularly true considering how powerful this event is and how volatile recent weather patterns have been. 

Soybeans and Oats formed upside key day reversals yesterday, from the region of the lower side of their three-month ranges. Soybeans improved on that performance today.



Corn, wheat and oats did not follow through to any great extent today following yesterday’s rallies. This is typical of base formation development with whippy trading activity indicative of a war between supply and demand. Sustained moves to new six-month highs will be required to signal returns to demand dominance beyond short term scope for a further rally. 

White Sugar rallied in October to break the medium-term progression of lower rally highs and has now held a move above the 200-day MA for the first time in more than four years. It firmed this week from the psychological $400 level and a sustained move below that area would be required to begin to question recovery potential. 

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