Eoin Treacy's view

Fed: “Are Oil Price Declines Good for the Economy?”

In conclusion, significant declines in oil prices during expansions appear to be a net positive for the economy

IMF: “Employment Impacts of Upstream Oil and Gas Investment in the United States”

We estimate that an additional rig-count results in the creation of 37 jobs immediately and 224 jobs in the long run, though our robustness checks suggest that these multipliers could be bigger 

Fed: “Lessons for Forecasting Unemployment in the U.S.: Use Flow Rates, Mind the Trend”

We find that any approach that leverages unemployment inflow and outflow rates performs well in the near term. 

IMF: “Asset Bubbles: Re-thinking Policy for the Age of Asset Management”

In distilling a vast literature spanning the rational— irrational divide, this paper offers reflections on why asset bubbles continue to threaten economic stability despite financial markets becoming more informationally-efficient, more complete, and more heavily influenced by sophisticated (i.e. presumably rational) institutional investors. Candidate explanations for bubble persistence—such as limits to learning, frictional limits to arbitrage, and behavioral errors—seem unsatisfactory as they are inconsistent with the aforementioned trends impacting global capital markets.

IMF: “Resolving Residential Mortgage Distress: Time to Modify?”

Depending on country circumstances, the economic benefits of temporary forbearance and loan modifications for struggling households could outweigh their costs.