Germany Leaves Door Open to Deal Based on Greek Proposal
Comment of the Day

February 19 2015

Commentary by David Fuller

Germany Leaves Door Open to Deal Based on Greek Proposal

Here is the opening of this topical report from Bloomberg:

(Bloomberg) -- Germany is leaving the door open to an agreement on Greece’s bailout funding as officials prepare their negotiating positions going into a meeting of finance ministers in Brussels Friday.

German leaders regard a proposal submitted by Greece to fellow euro-region governments as a basis for negotiations and don’t necessarily see a need for Greece to submit a fresh draft, according to a government official who asked not to be named because the discussions are private.

Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras on Thursday afternoon, her chief spokesman Steffen Seibert said. The call lasted about 50 minutes, according to a Greek official. In a Twitter posting, Tsipras said there was a “positive tone” and the call had resulted in an “interest in finding a mutually beneficial solution for #Greece & #Eurozone.”

The stance adopted by Germany, the biggest country contributor to Greece’s 240 billion-euro ($273 billion) rescue and the chief advocate of economic reforms in return, represents a step back from an earlier statement that suggested Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble had rejected out of hand the Greek letter requesting an extension of its loan agreement. Schaeuble plans to turn up in Brussels for talks on the plan with his euro-area counterparts, according to his ministry.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker “sees in this letter a positive sign, which in his assessment could pave the way for reasonable compromise in the interest of the financial stability in the euro area as whole,” commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas told reporters in Brussels.

David Fuller's view

Economic negotiations among countries, let alone within the Eurozone, are never easy.  Commonsense, in my opinion, would now lead to an agreement that gives Greece citizens some incentive to reform and develop their economy within the EU.  I also think this would have a better chance of working if all EU countries could agree on economic reforms with the realistic potential of increasing their prosperity within the global economy.

European stock markets appear poised for a further run to the upside, given a constructive end to the negotiations with Greece.  The big driver of such a move would be Mario Draghi’s QE, soon to commence in March.  Conversely, an acrimonious breakdown in tomorrow’s meetings and a revived prospect of ‘Grexit’ could reverse some of the recent gains. 

I commenced increasing my exposure to EU stock markets on the 12th of February, via spread-bet trades, and these positions are now partially protected with slightly in-the-money stops.  I will increase these positions given an agreement which keeps Greece within the EU.         

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