Turkish Crisis Deepens as Premier Said to Demand Autonomy
Comment of the Day

May 04 2016

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Turkish Crisis Deepens as Premier Said to Demand Autonomy

This article by Onur Ant, Firat Kozok and Selcan Hacaoglu for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

The power struggle at the top of Turkish politics may come to a head later on Wednesday, with Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu planning to tell President Recep Tayyip Erdogan he needs to respect the premier’s office and let him get on with the job, a person familiar with the matter said.

Davutoglu is considering calling an emergency convention of the ruling AK party, in which delegates would vote on the leadership, should he not receive a favorable response, the person said, asking not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter. Davutoglu has been facing intensifying opposition within the party from a group of hardline Erdogan supporters, the person said.

A party summit could be held in about 45 days should Wednesday’s meeting not end in agreement, the person said.

Tensions between the two men, and the rift among their supporters in the party, are more explosive than generally acknowledged, the person said.

Erdogan, who served as prime minister for more than a decade until 2014, has transformed the typically ceremonial role of the president to a new center of power and is seeking to formalize that by rewriting the constitution. Davutoglu, his handpicked successor, is seeking to establish his own credentials as an independent policy maker.

Eoin Treacy's view

There is no evidence to contradict the view that Erdogan is an aspiring despot. The increasingly assertive position taken by the prime minister is a medium-term positive subject of course to whether he is successful. 

Right now that is not how investors are responding to this fresh bout of uncertainty. The National 100 Index pulled back sharply from the upper side of the more than three year range and a clear upward dynamic will be required to question potential for an additional test of underlying trading. 

The Dollar has been trending consistently higher against the Turkish Lira and bounced emphatically over the last couple of days from the region of the trend mean. A sustained move below this week’s low near TRY2.8 would be required to question medium-term scope for continued upside.

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