China Rolls Up Welcome Mat
Comment of the Day

May 04 2016

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

China Rolls Up Welcome Mat

This article by Andrew Browne for the Wall Street Journal may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

No, China isn’t closing for business. Compared with many other developing countries, it remains wide open. It is the world’s largest manufacturer, biggest trader and a magnet for foreign investment. About three-quarters of China’s high-tech exports come from foreign-invested companies.

China’s antiforeign turn is driven by several related trends. First, President Xi Jinping has a much lower tolerance than Deng for the unwelcome intrusion of foreign ideas about democracy, press freedom and individual rights that come along with trade and investment—what Deng called “flies and mosquitoes.”

The other day, Mr. Xi was railing against “Western capitalist values” invading the Communist Party’s own training schools.

Second, Mr. Xi is pushing ideology harder than any leader in decades. Increasingly, China sees itself in ideological confrontation with the West. In addition to stressing Marxism, Mr. Xi’s administration is seeking to revive traditional Chinese culture to counter Western ideas—thus, the hostility to crosses.

And Mr. Xi is promoting a strident form of nationalism. One aspect of this is much greater Chinese assertiveness in territorial disputes with neighbors, including Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines. Another is an explicit set of government policies aimed at helping Chinese firms replace their foreign rivals in the domestic market.

All of this adds uncertainty to the outlook for foreigners who have landed on China’s shores. The 2010 census put their number at almost 600,000, not including residents from Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan.

Eoin Treacy's view

Here is a link to the article

“Governance is Everything” has been a mantra at this Service for decades. China made massive steps in opening up to foreign investment and became the world’s factory floor in a very short period of time; creating massive wealth along the way. Co-operation with the wider world always came on China’s terms such as requiring domestic partners and technology sharing but there was the quid pro quo in terms of access to the growing Chinese consumer base. 

Generally speaking we don’t look on governance as a fixed metric but rather as a relative comparison. The three main things we look for are minority shareholder rights, an independent judiciary and economic governance. China does not have the first two but it has done a wonderful job in building a modern economy through massive reforms instituted consistently over decades. 

Perhaps the most important point about governance is that it is not static. We need to be able to say that it is getting progressively better. With Xi at the helm in China it is no longer appropriate to claim governance is improving. 

He has personally taken over a large number of government portfolios as he seeks to micro manage both the Party and the economy. The “anti-corruption” drive, which curtailed (or redirected) graft has been a positive but might be more appropriately viewed as a further intensification of Communist control over the organs of power. Increasingly nationalistic rhetoric, a bellicose attitude to neighbours in the South China Sea and an education program characterising foreigners (read Americans) as spies points toward deteriorating governance.  
All of these factors suggest China deserves an additional risk premium when one is considering which international markets to invest in. 

The Dollar remains in a consistent medium-term uptrend against the Renminbi and a sustained move below the trend mean would be required to begin to question potential for additional upside. 

The domestic stock market remains in what looks like a support building phase. This follows the massive boom and even larger bust last year which was the result of a botched introduction of options trading and the Stock Connect program with Hong Kong.  

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