Today's interesting charts
Comment of the Day

April 04 2013

Commentary by David Fuller

Today's interesting charts

Price action is reality for your portfolio; the rest is noise

David Fuller's view Some of the developed countries known for their significant resources sectors are being adversely affected by this current, orderly decline in the Continuous Commodity Index (Old CRB). This reached an important, accelerated decline near 500 in early June 2012 (a Type-1 ending characteristic discussed at The Chart Seminar). However, a break in the current progression of lower rally highs since resistance was encountered near 600 in September, preferably accompanied by a move back above the 200-day moving average, is required to indicate that support is being encountered above last year's low.

Canada's TSX Composite Index has fallen sharply this week to test its gently rising MA. A strong rebound is required to offset current scope for a further test of underlying trading within the probable base formation.

Australia's S&P ASX200 Index (weekly & daily) has been losing upside momentum since the first peak above 5000 on February 20th. Today, it broke downwards from the small range evident beneath that psychological round number and a close back above 5000 is the minimum required to offset current scope for a further period of sideways to lower mean reversion towards the rising MA.

The UK's FTSE 100 Index (weekly & daily) has seen a further loss of upside momentum and is susceptible to a further period of mean reversion towards the rising MA, not least as the FTSE 350 Bank Index (weekly & daily) has been underperforming recently.

Note: as a general rule of thumb, when a country's banks are underperforming the broader market, there is a risk of a further setback, until the financial sector steadies. Today, banks are underperforming in many countries, not least in Europe.

The yen weakened sharply today, shown inversely as USD/JPY (weekly & daily) following new BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's plans to double Japan's monetary base, including increasing purchases of JGBs, not least long-dated positions which his predecessor had refused to do, at an annual pace of ¥50 trillion yen through 2014. Needless to say the Nikkei 225 Stock Average (weekly & daily) responded very favourably to this, despite the overall stock market corrective phase. A close beneath the intraday low near 11,800 on April 2nd would be required to negate the continued outlook for sideways to higher ranging.

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