Today's interesting charts
Comment of the Day

April 27 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Today's interesting charts

Here are some of the winners and losers from today's increased volatility.

Eoin Treacy's view Greek 10yr yields - holding in the region of 9.5% and a downward dynamic, sustained for more than a few days would be required to check momentum.

Portugal 10yr yields - breaks upwards to new almost 10-year highs. A downward dynamic would also be required here to check momentum beyond a brief pause.

Ireland 10yr yields - rallies to break the 16-month downtrend and a sustained move back below 4.75% would be required to limit potential for some additional upside. The Irish stock market posted a large downward dynamic from the region of the September high which caps the advance in at least the short term. The Index will now need to find support above or in the region of 3000 to sustain the medium-term bullish outlook.

Shanghai A-Shares - testing the psychological 3000 level but needs to sustain a move back above 3350 to indicate demand has regained the upper hand.

Euro Stoxx Banks Index - heavily weighted by Spanish banks, posts another lower high and would need to sustain a move above 220 to question scope for additional downside.

S&P500 Diversified Financials - fails to sustain the upward break to new recovery highs which makes a retest of the lower side of the previous range, somewhere in the region of 300, more likely. A sustained move to new recovery highs would be required to offset this potential.

S&P500 - second downward dynamic in less than 10 days marks at least a loss of short-term momentum and probably indicates the onset of reversionary process towards the ascending mean, defined by the 200-day moving average.

France - continues to encounter resistance in the region of the psychological 4000 and the December high. A sustained move to new recovery highs is now needed to reassert the medium-term uptrend and offset scope for some further retracement of recent gains.


Copper - fails to sustain the break above the psychological $3.50 and needs to find support above or in the region of $3 to sustain the medium-term bullish outlook.

Dollar Index - rallies to test the upper side of the 1-month range and a countermanding downward dynamic would be required to question potential for some additional upside.

Gold - pushing back up to retest this month's high and a sustained move back below $1150 would be required to limit potential for additional upside.

US 30yr Treasuries - rallies to break the short-term progression of lower highs and a countermanding downward dynamic would be required to question scope for further upside.

German 10yr Bunds - testing last year's highs near 126 and a downward dynamic would be required to hinder potential for some additional upside.

In conclusion, continued worries stemming from China's tightening, Mediterranean debt issues and Goldman Sachs being pursued by the SEC have contributed to heightened anxiety. Traditional safe havens such as the Dollar, Treasuries and gold have are all rallying which suggests that profits are being taken in risk assets and raises the potential that a another mean reversion correction may be unfolding.

Back to top