Optimism Extreme: Reduce Risk But Stay Overweight
Comment of the Day

April 27 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Optimism Extreme: Reduce Risk But Stay Overweight

Thanks to Rod Smyth, Bill Ryder and Ken Liu for their excellent timing letter, published by RiverFront Investment Group. It is posted without further comment but here is a section on Greece and Portugal

Eoin Treacy's view Greece was in the headlines again last week. We started writing about Greece in January and, three months later, doubts about its ability to service its debt linger. Most recently, Greek deficits were revealed to be significantly higher than originally through (indeed, to bring the story full circle, Goldman Sachs helped mask Greek debts). This revelation has caused Greece to formally request previously agreed upon assistance from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. The challenge is that European governments must pass legislation requiring parliamentary approval for a bailout. Opinion polls suggest a Greek bailout remains deeply unpopular among contributing members. We thing this is a situation similar to contentious Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) bailout package that was passed in the wake of Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy. For the good of the whole - i.e. the financial system and, in Europe's case, it's monetary union - an unpopular measure will eventually be adopted, in our view, but not without some guy-wrenching brinksmanship, as this saga has already demonstrated.

Back to top