Today's interesting charts
Comment of the Day

November 02 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

Today's interesting charts

David Fuller's view Watch the markets in the manner of a technical naturalist, for evidence of both their directional consistency and periodic change.

Brent crude oil (weekly & daily) continues to roll over beneath its earlier peaks in 1H 2011 and 1H 2012. A close above $110 is the minimum required to reaffirm support near current levels and question medium-term scope for lower ranging.

Japan's Nikkei (weekly & daily) has been a serial underperformer since its 2008-2009 troughs. There are various well documented reasons for this, but one often mentioned by Fullermoney, is the strength of the yen which has long been a headwind for Japan's exporters. As westerners many of us look most often at USD/JPY (weekly & daily) and this shows a gradual basing pattern, indicating the dollar is firming against the yen. However, it may be more relevant to look at JPY/CNY which indicates that the yen is now topping out against the Chinese renminbi. We maintain that a weaker yen, as part of a BoJ QE programme, would improve Japan's export earnings and attract both domestic and overseas investment in Japanese equities. If so, we would probably see the upside lead in Japan's 2nd Section Index (weekly & daily) and also the Topix Banks Index (weekly & daily). At present, you can see that the evidence is far from conclusive and this is likely to remain a lengthy process. Nevertheless, watch this space, as they say, because Japanese equities are a future opportunity.

Canada's TSX Composite Index (weekly & daily) has been steady in its apparent consolidation of gains seen since the June low. Although there is still some resistance evident near current levels and also from the February high, a close beneath 12,130 would be required to delay significantly medium-term scope for additional gains. (See also Eoin's review of mining shares below.)

Brazil's Bovespa Index (weekly & daily) overall pattern continues to underperform Canada above. Nevertheless, Yesterday's upward dynamic occurred in a region of prior support. Consequently, a close beneath 56,000 would be required to question further medium-term upward scope for this cyclical market.

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