Today's interesting charts
Comment of the Day

October 28 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Today's interesting charts

Price charts enable disciplined observers to monitor trend consistency and momentum, and also to recognise the dynamics of eventual trend change.

David Fuller's view China's Shanghai A-Shares Index (weekly & daily) has had a number of false starts over the last two years, during which the economy has continued to grow strongly, enabling valuations to improve. Interestingly, after a significant decline since April, we have seen two upside key day reversals off reaction lows this month, and a weekly key reversal has also occurred over the last five days. These reversal dynamics indicate that a low of at least near-term significance has been reached and a new closing low for the year would be required to offset current scope for sideways to higher ranging in a further recovery over the next few months.

Hong Hong's HSI Index (weekly & daily) accelerated to a low in early October and has seen its biggest rally this month since the high at 25,000 one year ago. This indicates that a potentially important low has been established and that downside risk is now limited to a partial retracement of recent gains in a support building process prior to an additional recovery.

Hong Kong's HSCEI (H-Shares) Index (weekly & daily) has a similar pattern and found support in the upper region of the 4Q 2008 to 1Q 2009 base. Here also downside risk appears limited to a partial retracement of this month's gains in a support building process prior to an additional recovery.

India's Sensex Index (weekly & daily) has rallied from lateral support near 16,000 to lateral trading near 18,000 which has provided both support and resistance over the last year. The Sensex has also approached its downward trending 200-day MA. Consequently, it is at an interesting level as further strength would break the downward trend, although this would not be fully confirmed until the progression of lower rally highs - the last one was in July - is broken. Conversely, a decline back beneath 17,000 would begin to suggest that supply had regained the upper hand. In what is a finely balanced technical picture, I would give the upside the benefit of the doubt, unless proved otherwise, due to the rebound in global stock markets, although an offsetting factor may be the Bombay Banks Index's current underperformance.

Singapore's Straits Times Index (weekly & daily) has surged higher since its early-October low. This increases the possibility that a sustainable low has been reached. However, a partial pullback and additional support building phase may be required before potential resistance from overhead trading, the declining MA and lateral trading near the psychological 3000 level is successfully challenged.

Indonesia's JCI Index (weekly & daily), so often an upside leader, has regained approximately two-thirds of its decline from the August high. This increases chances that the late-September low will hold, although resistance from the upper boundary may make further upward progress more laboured. Nevertheless, a close back beneath 3600 would be required to question the current outlook for sideways to higher ranging.

Australia's AS51 Index (weekly & daily) accelerated to a low in August and continued to build support above its 2008-2009 base for the next two months. Overhead supply may make further upward progress laboured but a close beneath 4130 would now be required to question evidence that demand has regained the upper hand.

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