Email of the day (3)
Comment of the Day

October 28 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (3)

On the USD/JPY:
"I would very much appreciate if you can comment on the usd/yen cross rate in one of your future comments and/or audio.

"As always, thanks for the wonderful service."

David Fuller's view Thanks for your kind words and especially for a question certain to be of interest to many subscribers.

The US dollar has broken downwards against the yen once again (weekly & daily). It is in the nature of traders to push these trends further, with trailing stops, until the move eventually provokes intervention. Japan last intervened following the spike to nearly ¥76 in mid-March and it rebounded to ¥85.5 before falling back.

We would need to be a fly on the wall in Japan's BoJ or MoF to know when they will next intervene but the lower the yen falls, the more Japan's exporters will plead for intervention. Japan may be even more concerned about CNY/JPY (weekly & daily) because the yen's strength is hollowing out Japan's economy by driving more exporters overseas.

I think we will see further intervention, quite possibly this year, but I do not know when or from what level it will occur against the USD or CNY. However, Japan's next intervention should trigger another sharp rebound.

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