Today's interesting charts
Comment of the Day

August 10 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Today's interesting charts

Price charts speak volumes.

David Fuller's view Indonesia's JCI (weekly & daily) continues to show relative strength and is currently still above its 200-day MA. However, the biggest downward dynamics and biggest correction since the 2008 low indicate technical deterioration and a new closing high would be required to question current scope for an additional retracement of previous gains.

The 'Ted Spread' (weekly & daily) shows the difference between 3-month futures contracts for US Treasuries and 3-month Eurodollars, and reflects the credit rating of corporate borrowers. A rising Ted Spread indicates concern that the corporate default risk is increasing. It has risen this month but is still a long way below the foothills of 2007, let alone the spike in 2008. Consequently, concerns over corporate borrowers are much lower today than in the last crisis. (See also Eoin's comment on EUR Libor 3-month - EUR Generic 3-month spread on Monday.)

The OEX Volatility Index (VIX) (monthly, weekly & daily) has risen to a level that has often coincided with the approximate region of market troughs on Wall Street in the past, although clearly not in 2008.

The US S&P 500 Index (weekly & daily) is temporarily overextended but this pattern is unlikely to support more than a technical rally at present, given the breakdown that has occurred.

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