Email of the day (3)
Comment of the Day

August 10 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (3)

On the "last man standing":
"Do you think there is still a contagion risk for gold like in 2008 with it being swept downwards if stock markets drop below their recent lows? Or is it different for gold this time?

David Fuller's view Theoretically, it could be different this time and many people obviously hope it will, but I would not count on it. It is all down to confidence and whether or not those who are buying and holding gold will continue to do so in sufficient quantity to offset any significant selling pressure. Your guess on this is as good as mine.

Currently, gold (weekly & daily) has yet to show any sign of contagion selling and is still moving higher. However, a bearish signal can occur suddenly, as we saw in early May following the last upward acceleration. Gold only fell a little over $100 back then but it has accelerated further relative to its MA this time and global stock markets are weaker.

You have three main choices, as I see it: 1) do nothing on the basis that the secular bull market should stay intact, whatever happens over the near term; 2) decide on a point beyond which you would not want to see your profits eroded and introduce a stop, which you could also increase if the advance continues; 3) lighten positions on strength, leaving you with the option of repurchasing on setbacks, or not, depending on how you assessed the technical action.

Meanwhile, congratulations to you and many other subscribers for buying gold some time ago and having the nerve (vision) to stay with it to date.

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