The Best Opportunities in a Half-Century
Comment of the Day

December 07 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

The Best Opportunities in a Half-Century

Thanks to a subscriber for this excellent article from Barron's where Andrew Bary interviews Joe Rosenburg. Here is a section:
In my 50 years on Wall Street, it is rare that I've been so attracted to some of the best and finest companies. I will name a few, but generally speaking, I feel like a kid in a candy store, because I don't know where to begin. There's Microsoft, Merck, Amgen [AMGN], Johnson & Johnson, Teva Pharmaceutical [TEVA], Staples [SPLS], Oracle [ORCL] and Cisco [CSCO]. The best companies in the world are now some of the cheapest stocks.

Stocks have disappointed for a long time.

We're at an inflection point in history, and that's what I want to emphasize. I'm not talking about a trade. I don't know what is going to happen next week or next month.

In terms of economic history, the equity market looks a lot like the Treasury-bond market in the early 1980s, when I had the most difficult time convincing people that they ought to buy bonds at 15% yields. Equities can easily generate a 10% annualized total return over the next five to 10 years. And they would still not be overvalued at that point. That's the beauty of it.

What should investors do?

If investors are afraid to put all their money into equities at one time, keep cash-and then every time you get another one of these scares, add to your position.

Eoin Treacy's view The views expressed in this article rhyme with the Fullermoney view that multinational companies, with strong balance sheets, that dominate their respective niches and are leveraged to the growth of the global consumer are likely to outperform for a sustained period. This is a fundamental view which needs to be tempered by a disciplined reading of the price charts. Price after all is the only real arbiter.

I have attempted over the last few months to highlight shares exhibiting relative strength and posting new highs. This is an important sign of leadership, against a background of high volatility and increasing uncertainty. The commonality in such shares is not difficult to identify. They are almost all leveraged to the growth of the global consumer. The fact that consumer related sectors are outperforming across Asia also supports this hypothesis.

We are in the midst of the Greatest Urbanisation in History. The UN estimates 1.7 billion people will move from the country to the city in the next twenty years, an event unprecedented in human history. Global autonomies will be among the companies that benefit most from this exodus because they are some of the best prepared to target masses of new consumers.


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