Email of the day (2)
Comment of the Day

December 07 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (2)

On an article about silver's outlook:
"As you are both pre-eminent in the field of technical analysis, (which I certainly am not) - I wonder if you have time to cast an eye over the charts used by this author and comment on whether you think they support his very bullish pro-silver arguments?

Click here: Silver Ready For Take-Off? | Willem Weytjens | Safehaven.com

"P.S. I believe this is a fairly new website - pleased to see Fullermoney is listed under "links"."

David Fuller's view Thanks for your comments and the link.

Anyone who is sufficiently interested can learn how to read prices charts. I can say that, not due to pre-eminence, but because Eoin and I have seen and heard it from the many thousands of investors, analysts and traders who have attended The Chart Seminar, commencing with the first course on Behavioural Technical Analysis which I launched in 1970 and which Fullermoney has provided every year subsequently.

Willem Weytjens makes some good points in the article. I have always described silver, which I have traded more than any other commodity over the years, as high beta gold. That volatility can be challenging. Therefore, I prefer to use 'commonality' when assessing silver or any other futures traded precious metal.

In other words, if silver (weekly & daily) is going to "take-off", it will not do it on its own and the outlook may either be clearer on one of the other precious metals such as gold (weekly & daily), or you will have a better overall feel for the sector by looking at platinum (weekly & daily) and palladium (weekly & daily) as well.

This analysis need not be overly elaborate. You can see from the charts above that precious metals have been in a corrective phase for much of this year. Currently, silver, which had that big blow-off in April is lagging, as is platinum. Gold has the more consistent pattern, despite its acceleration in August, and it is outperforming at present. That is a favourable sign for silver and if gold hits a new high in the next few months, as Fullermoney expects, then you can be reasonably confident that silver will follow.

Palladium currently shows the next best performance and a push back above the MA and into the small top formation would provide another bullish lead for both silver and platinum.

For the record, you may recall that I am long gold (an over weight position), silver (medium weight) and platinum (under weight), and I am annoyed that I did not pick up some palladium on its last setback. This guarantees nothing but I am hoping that gold and palladium lead a resumption of the secular bull markets for precious metals sooner rather than later.

(See also Eoin's comments on platinum below.)



Back to top