South Africa President Zuma Says He Can't Stop Gordhan Probe
Comment of the Day

August 25 2016

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

South Africa President Zuma Says He Can't Stop Gordhan Probe

This article by Mike Cohen and Sam Mkokeli for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Gordhan, 67, was named finance minister in December after Zuma roiled markets by firing Nhlanhla Nene from the position and replacing him with a little-known lawmaker. His relationship with Zuma has been a fractious one, with the president denying his requests to fire the nation’s tax chief for insubordination and appoint a new board at the state-owned airline.

“President Jacob Zuma wishes to express his full support and confidence in the minister of finance and emphasizes the fact that the Minister has not been found guilty of any wrongdoing,” the Presidency said in a statement. “The negative effect of these matters on our economy, personal pressure on the individuals affected as well as the heads of institutions, however disturbing, cannot be cause for the president to intervene unconstitutionally.” 

The National Prosecuting Authority hasn’t received a docket from the police and there was no indication when they would receive one, Luvuyo Mfaki, a spokesman for the national prosecutor, said by phone. City Press reported that the docket would be handed to the NPA on Friday after the police questioned tax agency officials including Ivan Pillay, the former deputy commissioner, and Oupa Magashula, the ex-commissioner.

Eoin Treacy's view

Standards of political governance have been declining steadily since the ANC assumed what is in effect single party rule. Institutions and laws which support the free market, such as the independence of the judiciary, minority shareholder and property righrs have all been under attack. Continued political turmoil and the volatility of Zuma’s administration are additionally not good for confidence. 

South African government bond yields have also surged this week to confirm at least near-term supply in the region of the 8.5%. It is a testament to how serious the market views political risk in South Africa that spreads are widening when most other emerging market spreads are tightening. 

The Dollar surged today versus the Rand to test the region of the trend mean and a sustained move above it would signal a return to dominance beyond the short term. 

The Johannesburg All Share Index has been cushioned by the fall in the currency but the Dollar denominated iShares MSCI South Africa ETF has pulled back sharply to test the region of the MA where it will need to demonstrate support if potential for continued higher to lateral ranging is to be given the benefit of the doubt. 

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