The foundation for new all-time-highs is in place. As far as sentiment is concerned, we definitely see no euphoria with respect to gold. Skepticism, fear, and panic are never the final stop of a bull market. In the short run, seasonality seems to argue in favor of a continued sideways movement, but from August onwards gold should enter its seasonally best phase. USD 2,000 is our next 12M price target. We believe that the parabolic trend phase is still ahead of us, and that our long-term price target of USD 2,300/ounce could be on the conservative side.
Since our first Gold Report we have discussed the gradual remonetisation of gold. Last year, we saw numerous signals indicating the fact that gold was gradually becoming "politically correct" again. Due to its high liquidity and unique characteristics, gold is becoming ever more prominent as collateral. Therefore, we are currently seeing the renaissance of gold in international finance. The foundation for a return to "sound money" has been laid.
Negative interest rates constitute a perfect environment for the gold price. During the 20 years of the gold bear market in the 1980s and 1990s, the average real interest rate level was around +4%. Since 2000, real interest rates have been negative for 51% of the time, which constitutes an optimal environment for gold. The fact that the Federal Reserve will now maintain its zero-interest policy until 2014 should result in prolonged negative real interest rates and thus create a positive foundation for further increases in the gold price.
We believe that financial repression will continue to crop up in many shapes and sizes and gain in importance over the coming years. Although we are currently faced with the highest level of public debt in time of peace, far-reaching consolidation of public budgets does not seem to be up for discussion. According to Austrian economics, every act of consumption has to be preceded by production. There seems to be no painless therapy for these problems. We believe that gold is an effective medicine.
David Fuller's view Even the hoariest gold bugs will find something new in Ronald-Peter Stöferle's excellent and very readable report.
Interestingly, a number of heavyweight gold specialists now have a similarly bullish view. To pose the irreverent question: Is this good news for those of us who hold gold, or a contrary indicator?
I may not be entirely objective on this point but I agree with them, and all the more so following a lengthy correction. I have just one caveat. A significantly risk-off mood among investors in the next few months would most likely weigh temporarily on gold as well. Hopefully, that will remain an outside risk rather than a probability.