Heineken to Block Thai Billionaire With $6 Billion Beer Bid
Comment of the Day

July 20 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Heineken to Block Thai Billionaire With $6 Billion Beer Bid

This article by David Fickling and Sharon Chen for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

The deal would be the Amsterdam-based company's largest after offering $7.4 billion in 2010 for the beer operations of Coca-Cola bottler Fomento Economico Mexicano SAB, or Femsa.

“In the past, Heineken was quite comfortable in the partnership with F&N, but the entry of Thai Bev really changed the dynamics of the relationship,” Goh Han Peng, an analyst at DMG & Partners Securities in Singapore, said by phone. “If Heineken had not responded, over time Thai Bev could have increased its stake in F&N and really controlled the interest.”

The S$50 a share bid is 19 percent above APB's closing price yesterday of S$42 and more than the S$45 that Bijananda's company is paying for a stake. The average premium paid in 45 takeovers of beermakers announced in the last two years is 25 percent. The stock, along with F&N, was suspended from trade today.

Eoin Treacy's view Asia Pacific Breweries has been a constituent of the Autonomies sector since we originated it more than a year ago. It ticked the boxes of brand recognition, a solid record of dividend increases and impressive growth rates. Additionally, it reflects Heineken's Asian growth aspirations. At this stage I believe it is appropriate to attach the Autonomy appellation to Heineken. (Also see Comment of the day on December 9th 2011).

Heineken (1.91%) has been mostly rangebound since early 2010. It has rallied impressively over the last month to challenge the upper boundary and while somewhat overbought in the short term, a sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

Thai Beverage, with whom Heineken is competing for control of Asia Pacific Breweries, has rallied impressively since January, holding a progression of higher reaction lows. It surged earlier today but closed well off the peak. However a sustained move below 33¢ would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

Elsewhere in the alcoholic beverages sector, while Anheuser Busch In-Bev, SAB Miller, Diageo, Remy Cointreau, Pernod Ricard, Brown-Forman and Grupo Modelo continue to post new highs, they are becoming increasingly overextended relative to their respective 200-day MAs and are increasingly susceptible to mean reversion.

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