Simandou offers a potentially huge new source of supply for Rio, the world’s largest iron ore producer, while China sees the project as key to easing its steel industry’s dependence on Australian output. The world’s top steel-producing nation recently embarked on one of the biggest shake-ups of the global iron ore market in more than a decade by setting up a new state-owned group, designed to be a hub for huge overseas mine investments and buying the steelmaking material from international suppliers.
Simandou might be a big deal of Rio Tinto but it is much more strategically important to China who chaff at their dependence on Australian exports. If the Guinea project comes online they will have greater control over iron-ore supply and will no longer be held hostage to the oligopoly of Rio Tinto, BHP and Vale.
The Australian Dollar has steadied over the last couple of weeks as it reverts towards the mean. However, the deteriorating trend is still in evidence. A break in the succession of lower rally highs will be required to signal a return to demand dominance beyond near-term steadying.
Rio Tinto continues to pause in the region of the 1000-day MA and the November low. The 4500p level will need to hold if the benefit of the doubt is to be given to the upside.