Revisiting Rare Earths: The Ongoing Efforts to Challenge China's Monopoly
Comment of the Day

September 05 2017

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Revisiting Rare Earths: The Ongoing Efforts to Challenge China's Monopoly

This article by Mayuko Yatsu for TheDiplomat.com may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

For instance, Australian companies have been working to open rare earth mines in Australia and Tanzania for producing elements such as neodymium and dysprosium. Likewise, Canada, through collaboration with the national government and industrial associations, seeks to gain up to 20 percent of global rare earth production by 2018.

Japan has also explored non-Chinese suppliers of rare earth metals, reaching co-development agreements with countries like Australia, India, Kazakhstan, and Vietnam. A research group from the University of Tokyo in 2012 even found a significant amount of rare earth minerals around Minami-Torishima, the easternmost island of the country (located in the Western Pacific). In 2016, Japanese auto giant Honda invented an advanced motor which does not require rare earth elements. More recently, in June 2017, Japanese scientists discovered a massive amount of cobalt-rich crusts, which often contain cobalt, nickel, and some rare earth elements. Even if it is very challenging and costly to extract those minerals from the deep sea, Japan will seek to do so in order to boost its long-run natural resource self-sufficiency.

For the United States, re-opening the Mountain Pass mine in California has been a strategic goal. After the shutdown of the mine in 2015 (following the bankruptcy of then-owner Molycorp), several companies expressed interest in purchasing the mine. There has been discussion of the economic and security considerations of the U.S. giving a Chinese-affiliated company some control over the mine, even before the court made its final decision. It is still unclear whether any higher U.S. authority such as Congress will step in to stop the deal, although several experts have address potential risks surrounding the court’s decision.

Eoin Treacy's view

This article quoting Vladimir Putin caught my attention. Here is a section:

AI development “raises colossal opportunities and threats that are difficult to predict now,” Putin said in a lecture to students, warning that “it would be strongly undesirable if someone wins a monopolist position.”

Future wars will be fought by autonomous drones, Putin suggested, and “when one party’s drones are destroyed by drones of another, it will have no other choice but to surrender.”

It is reasonable to expect that if Putin believes the future of warfare will be drone based that is what they will be building. In the West, there is little appetite for casualties of war which has resulted in both higher use of drones and private security firms / mercenaries. While the bulk of media focus has been on the development of autonomous vehicles, it is comparatively easy to develop autonomous planes by comparison. After all there are a lot fewer obstacles to avoid. In fact, the major decision is whether anything they encounter is friend or foe rather than whether it needs to be avoided.

United Technologies’ acquisition of Rockwell Collins highlights the competition within the aeronautics / defense sector to gain the critical mass as air traffic and defense spending increase.  

The growth of the aeronautics sector is likely to represent a leading source of new demand for rare earth metals in addition to the already impressive growth represented by the renewable energy sector.

Australian listed Lynas Corp stands out as one of the new entrants to the sector which has become a producer and refiner. The share broke successfully above 14¢ in July and a sustained move below the trend mean would be required to question recovery potential.

Alkane Resources is developing a heavy rare earths mine in New South Wales and funding the project with profits from its gold mining operation. The share found support in July and continues to extend its rebound.  

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