Rand Worst Performer for Second Day as Mining Unrest Continues
Comment of the Day

September 13 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Rand Worst Performer for Second Day as Mining Unrest Continues

This article by Chris Kay for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
“The strike action activity remains a concerning feature of this sector's landscape at the moment,” Johannesburg-based Tradition Analytics said by e-mail today. Losses in the rand are being compounded by current account data released earlier this week that “was nothing short of shocking,” Tradition said.

The gap on South Africa's current account, the broadest measure of trade in goods and services, grew to 6.4 percent in the second quarter, the widest since the third quarter of 2008, from 4.9 percent of gross domestic product in the first, the Reserve Bank said Sept. 11.

A debt crisis in Europe has damped demand for exports from a region that buys about a third of shipments from South Africa. Manufacturing production declined 1 percent in the second quarter, according to Statistics South Africa, and the government and central bank forecast economic expansion will slow to 2.7 percent this year from 3.1 percent in 2011.

Eoin Treacy's view The Rand caught my attention during my morning click-through of global markets because of the two consecutive downward dynamics it had posted. However by the end of the day it has reversed its decline to post a strong rally against a number of currencies.

Within a medium-term context, the Dollar broke out of its base a year ago and has found support in the region of the 200-day MA on successive occasions. It firmed once more from above ZAR8 this week and a sustained move below that level would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

The Euro has found support in the region of ZAR10 on at least three occasions over the last year and encountered resistance today in the region of the upper side of the medium-term range. The Pound hit a new three-year high against the Rand today but failed to hold it and pulled back into the range. The commonality of the Rand's intraday rally probably has more to do with the weakness of other currencies rather than any inherent strength.

Following an accelerated decline the 15-year bond yield found support in July above 7% and rebounded. Yesterday's upward dynamic from near 7.25% suggests the return of supply dominance at a progressively higher level and a sustained move below that area would be required to question medium-term scope for further yield expansion.

The Johannesburg All Share Index has been among the best performers globally and can also be described as a leader because it has been among the first to hit new highs following reactions since 2009. The Index found support in the region of the 200-day MA in May and hit a new all-time high in August. The upside can continue to be given the benefit of the doubt provided it continues to find support in the region of the MA following reactions.

Meanwhile, platinum pricing continues to experience a tailwind from South African industrial action at a number of important mines. As long as the dispute between rival unions intensifies this is likely to remain a bullish catalyst. Today's announcement of QE3 acted as an additional bullish catalyst. While prices are becoming increasingly overextended in the short-term the previous highs near $1700 are unlikely to offer much more than temporary resistance in the absence of a clear downward dynamic.

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